How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Sunday's Results

Tip 1: Konstantinos Mavropanos - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 11/10
Tip 2: Jose Vinicius Junior - To Score Or Assist - 1pt - LOST
Tip 3: Nadiem Amiri - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - LOST
Tip 4: Evan NDicka - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 10/11
Tip 5: Jordan Lefort - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +27 pts

Tip 1: Conor Gallagher - To Be Shown A Card - 0.75pts

Best odds of 29/10 at Sporting Index while publishing.

Conor Gallagher comes into this with real disciplinary momentum, having been booked in his last two matches. That trend is important in a game where Spurs are expected to face repeated transition moments.

His role naturally involves breaking up counters and slowing down attacks before they develop. In a match with survival pressure, that usually translates into tactical fouls in dangerous areas.

Tip 2: Rodrigo Bentancur - To Be Shown A Card - 0.75pts

Best odds of 9/4 at Skybet while publishing.

Rodrigo Bentancur is in a similar position, also booked in his last two games. He operates in a central role that often requires defensive intervention when Spurs are exposed in transition.

With Leeds likely to attack quickly and directly, Bentancur’s defensive workload increases, and so does the risk of a booking in a game where control is expected to be messy rather than clean.

Bonus Tip: 
Conor Gallagher - To Be Shown A Card
Rodrigo Bentancur - To Be Shown A Card

Double - 0.25pts @ 10/1(Skybet)

Tip 3: Richarlison - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 31/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

With Dominic Solanke sidelined, Richarlison becomes Spurs’ main attacking outlet. His role shifts closer to goal, with more touches inside the box and more responsibility in finishing moves.

In matches where Spurs create sustained pressure, he is typically the focal point in the penalty area, especially from crosses and second balls. He's already scored 10 goals this season and scored in the last game as well. With confidence high in this Spurs team, Richarlison will be eager to find the back of the net again.

 Tip 4: Pedro Porro - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at SpreadEx while publishing.

AI Probability 51% | Implied Probability 46% | EV 10%

Pedro Porro continues to offer consistent attacking output from full-back. His recent shot pattern highlights regular involvement in advanced positions.

Last five games: 1, 2, 2, 3, 0 shots

Even in quieter matches, his positioning in the final third keeps him in shooting range, particularly when Spurs dominate possession at home.

Tip 5: Pascal Struijk - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 19/20 at 10bet while publishing.

AI Probability 63% | Implied Probability 51% | EV 23%

Pascal Struijk has been reliable in this market, landing over 1.5 tackles in 2 of his last 3 Premier League appearances. His defensive role is built around repeated duels and covering central spaces under pressure.

With Leeds likely to spend periods defending deep, his tackling involvement should remain steady, making this one of the more stable angles in the card.