The EV Eagle has picked out five betting angles for Tuesday night's Premier League fixtures.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Sunday's Results:
Jack Hinshelwood Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt - WON (6/4)
Igor Jesus Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 1pt - LOST
Mateus Fernandes Over 1.5 Fouls – 1pt - LOST
Ismaïla Sarr Over 1.5 Shots – 1pt - WON (8/11)
2025/26 Season P/L: +17.78pts
Tuesday's Premier League Tips
| Tip | Stake |
|---|---|
| Cole Palmer Over 2.5 Shots vs Tottenham | 1.5pts |
| Cole Palmer Over 3.5 Shots vs Tottenham | 0.5pts |
| Nico O’Reilly 2+ Shots vs Bournemouth | 1pt |
| Tyler Adams 2+ Fouls vs Man City | 1pt |
| Kevin Danso To Be Shown a Card vs Chelsea | 0.75pts |
| Jeremy Doku Anytime Goalscorer vs Bournemouth | 0.75pts |
Cole Palmer - Over 2.5 Shots vs Spurs (1.5pts)
Best odds of 7/5 with betway.
Cole Palmer looks the standout Chelsea shot-volume angle, having landed Over 2.5 Shots in three of his last four Premier League starts, with the only miss coming away to Liverpool. The home split is even stronger, with this line landing in 11 of his 15 Stamford Bridge starts for Chelsea this season.
The Tottenham matchup also suits Palmer. He averages 3.25 shots per game against Spurs for Chelsea, with five goal involvements in those meetings. Spurs arrive under survival pressure and Chelsea are chasing European qualification, so this derby should carry enough intensity and game-state volatility for Palmer to remain heavily involved.
At the main stake, Over 2.5 Shots is the clear play, but given the home-start hit rate and his previous output in this fixture, a smaller 0.5pt play on Over 3.5 Shots also makes sense (best odds of 15/4 with betway).
Nico O’Reilly Over 1.5 Shots vs Bournemouth (1pt)
Best odds of 6/4 with BetMGM / Coral / Ladbrokes.
Nico O’Reilly has hit 2+ shots in four of his last five away matches for Manchester City, and his numbers against non-Big Six Premier League sides read 0, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2, 5. That is a strong profile for a player still being priced like a conventional full-back rather than someone with licence to step into advanced zones.
He also had two shots in the reverse fixture against Bournemouth with 32 Premier League shots this season from 29 appearances, alongside five goals and three assists.
With City likely to dominate long spells but Bournemouth dangerous enough to make this open, O’Reilly’s attacking tendencies makes 2+ shots a strong angle.
Tyler Adams 2+ Fouls vs Man City (1pt)
Best odds of 11/10 with Coral / Ladbrokes.
Tyler Adams appeals in the fouls market after committing 2+ fouls in seven of his previous 11 starts for Bournemouth. His season-long profile supports the trend, with 30 fouls in 22 Premier League appearances.
The opposition angle is also strong. At least one central midfielder has committed 2+ fouls in six of Manchester City’s last seven games, and Adams should be operating in the exact zone where City look to build through Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Rayan Cherki. Ryan Christie’s suspension should open the door for extended minutes for Adams on Tuesday.
With Bournemouth still chasing Europe and City needing a win in the title race, Adams should have enough counter-pressing and transition-stopping moments to clear 2+ fouls.
Kevin Danso To Be Carded vs Chelsea (0.75pts)
Best odds of 2/1 with Sky Bet / BetMGM.
Kevin Danso is a strong card candidate after committing 2+ fouls in four consecutive starts, picking up a yellow card in all four. Stretching the sample further, he has made 2+ fouls in eight of his last nine starts, which is a clear discipline trend rather than a one-game outlier.
Chelsea also have the right type of forwards to draw contact. João Pedro is averaging 2.2 fouls won per 90, Chelsea’s most-fouled player per 90 this season. At least one centre-back has been booked in three of Chelsea’s last four matches.
The only caveat is João Pedro’s fitness, but Chelsea should still carry enough central threat through Palmer, Neto or Delap to test Danso. Given his recent foul/card run, Danso to be shown a card looks worth a smaller play.
Jeremy Doku Anytime Goalscorer vs Bournemouth (0.75pts)
Best odds of 3/1 with bet365 / Sky Bet (Super Sub Markets).
Jeremy Doku is in the best scoring form of his Manchester City career, having scored in two of his last three Premier League matches.
His underlying involvement backs up the punt. Doku has had six shots on target across his last six appearances, with five goals, five assists, 35 shots and 14 shots on target in the Premier League this season. There is also a strong matchup angle, with Bournemouth set to be without first-choice right-back Alex Jimenez.
With five goal involvements in two previous starts against Bournemouth and City needing a win to keep the title race alive, Doku has enough recent form, matchup upside and motivation to justify an anytime goalscorer play.
