Premier League Golden Boot Odds: Four Outsiders Worth Backing

Erling Haaland once again heads the betting to win the Premier League Golden Boot, but history suggests the award rarely follows the script.

Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, Benjamin Sesko and Cole Palmer all begin the new campaign at much bigger prices than the Manchester City striker despite possessing the quality to challenge if everything falls into place. With each representing clubs expected to push towards the top end of the table, they could offer genuine value in the outright market.

Here are four outsiders worth considering in the Premier League Golden Boot betting.

TIP 1: Alexander Isak - Liverpool - 1pt

Best odds of 10/1 available at BetVictor at the time of publishing.

Isak is the clear second favourite in the market behind Haaland, and 10/1 still looks appealing given the context he arrives with.

His first season at Liverpool was defined by everything going wrong at once. A club-record £130 million move in September was followed by a non-existent pre-season, a groin injury, and then a leg break that limited him to his fewest club minutes since his first full season at Borussia Dortmund. None of that reflects the player Newcastle fans watched score 27 goals in his final campaign at St. James' Park.

The World Cup looks to have repaired some of that lost conditioning. Isak started and played every minute of Sweden's three group games, scoring once and assisting three goals as they progressed as one of the best third-placed sides, and it was the longest run of consecutive minutes he had strung together since November 2024.

He has since returned to Liverpool for pre-season under new head coach Andoni Iraola, whose intense, high-press approach is a closer match to the Klopp-era identity that suits a striker of Isak's profile than the slower build-up football Liverpool were playing before.

Liverpool go into the season at 13/2 to win the title, a considerable drift on their position twelve months ago but still very much inside the leading group behind Arsenal and Manchester City. A club chasing a title challenge with a fully fit Isak leading the line, and playing off Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai, is a very different proposition to the injury-ravaged version of Liverpool's front three last season.

TIP 2: Viktor Gyokeres - Arsenal - 1pt

Best odds available of 22/1 at SpreadEx.

Gyokeres took time to get going after his move from Sporting, but by the turn of the year he had become exactly the focal point Arsenal signed him to be.

The Swede finished his debut Premier League season with 14 league goals, and the underlying numbers only strengthened as the campaign wore on. He scored eight goals in all competitions in the 2026 calendar year alone, was among the division's leading attackers for goal contributions in that stretch, and produced a double against Leeds in the closing weeks of the season that took his tally beyond what any Arsenal player managed in the top flight the year before. Arsenal ended their 22-year wait for the title on the back of that form, with Martin Zubimendi's control in midfield freeing up space for exactly the kind of runs Gyokeres thrives on.

Gyökeres carried his excellent club form into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scoring three goals in four appearances as Sweden reached the Round of 32. The Arsenal striker led his country's attacking line throughout the tournament and finished with the best expected goal involvement (xG+xA) among Sweden's players, further underlining why he is viewed as one of Europe's most clinical No. 9s.

His tournament stats were:

• Appearances: 4
• Goals: 3
• Assists: 0
• Minutes played: 343
• Goals per 90: 0.79
• xG + xA: 1.4 per 90 (team-leading among Swedish players)

Arsenal have been cautious with him in pre-season so far, resting their senior players for the opening friendly against MK Dons as academy prospects and squad players were given minutes instead. That is a squad-management call rather than a fitness concern, and Gyokeres is expected to feature once Arsenal's tour matches against Girona and Real Betis get underway in August.

As reigning champions, Arsenal head the title market at 6/4, comfortably the shortest price of any side in this piece. A team that starts the season as favourites and controls games the way Arsenal did last year should continue to generate the platform for a 20-goal season from their central striker.

At 22/1, he represents one of the standout each-way options in the market.

TIP 3: Benjamin Sesko - Manchester United - 1pt

Best odds of 25/1 at BetVictor while publishing.

Sesko remains something of an unknown quantity in Golden Boot betting circles, but the numbers from his debut season suggest the ceiling is considerably higher than his price implies.

The Slovenian finished 2025/26 with 12 goals in all competitions, level with fellow new arrival Bryan Mbeumo for the club's top scorer, despite frequently being used from the bench. Under Michael Carrick, who took permanent charge midway through the season, Sesko developed into United's most reliable source of goals when games were stuck, scoring four times as a substitute and posting a conversion rate that ranked among the best in the league. A shin injury curtailed his campaign in May, and Carrick has taken a deliberately cautious approach in pre-season, holding him out of the opening friendlies against Wrexham and Rosenborg as he builds back to full fitness.

That caution should pay off. Reports out of Carrington suggest Sesko is on schedule to be involved against Atletico Madrid and is expected to start against Paris Saint-Germain in early August, giving him a proper run of matches before the season begins. A fully fit Sesko as first-choice striker is a materially different proposition as compared to last season where took his time to settle in with the team.

United go into the campaign at 6/1 to win the title, the outsider of the traditional top four but priced considerably shorter than twelve months ago after their form under Carrick. A top-four finish and a settled centre-forward role should be enough on its own to push Sesko's numbers well past his rookie-season return.

TIP 4: Cole Palmer - Chelsea - 1pt

Best odds of 40/1 at bet365 while publishing.

Palmer is the longest-priced player on this list, but he may also be the most interesting.

He is not an out-and-out striker, but he remains Chelsea's primary penalty taker and creative hub, and even an injury-disrupted 2025/26 season still produced 10 Premier League goals from an attacking midfield role. Six of those came from the penalty spot or free-kicks, underlining how much of his output is set-piece driven rather than reliant on getting into the box, which gives him a level of goal reliability that few players outside the traditional strikers can match. Pre-season has offered an early glimpse of the connections Xabi Alonso is building around him, with Palmer teeing up Joao Pedro in a 6-4 win over Western Sydney Wanderers that also featured Estevao among the attacking options now surrounding him.

Chelsea have been busy this summer, with Morgan Rogers added to a forward line that already includes Palmer, Joao Pedro and Estevao, and the club dropping out of European competition gives Alonso a full week between matches to work with. That combination of a lighter fixture list and increased attacking depth should, in theory, take some creative burden off Palmer while still leaving him first in line for penalties.

Chelsea sit at 10/1 in the title market, the biggest price of the sides covered here but one that reflects genuine belief in Alonso's rebuild after their disappointing tenth-placed finish last season. If Chelsea's improvement holds up domestically, Palmer's multiple routes to goal, open play, penalties and free-kicks, give him more paths to a big season than most players priced in this bracket.

A full pre-season under a new manager building an attack around him, no European football to manage his minutes, and a guaranteed route to goals from the penalty spot.