How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Last time out:

Anastasios Douvikas Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt - LOST
Julio Enciso Over 2.5 Shots — 1pt - WON @ 23/20
Paul Okon-Engstler Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt - LOST
Jude Bellingham Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt - LOST

TIP 1: Morgan Gibbs-White - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 23/10 available at SpreadEx while publishing.

Morgan Gibbs-White has landed the Anytime Goalscorer market in six of his last 10 games, making him an appealing option to find the net again. The Forest midfielder has been particularly dangerous at home in the Premier League, scoring four goals across his last three home appearances, which underlines just how productive he can be in front of his own supporters.

There is also an added incentive to back MGW given his apparent position in the penalty hierarchy. He stepped up to convert from the spot against Liverpool, suggesting he could remain Forest's penalty taker, and that provides another route to a goal on top of his open-play threat.

Morgan Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham [Anytime Goalscorer]
23/10

TIP 2: Anan Khalaili - Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at 10bet while publishing.

Anan Khalaili over 2.5 tackles is an interesting option given the defensive work he has been doing from the right wing-back position for Palace. He has made 10 tackles in his last two appearances, including four in just 35 minutes in his most recent outing, highlighting how quickly he can rack up defensive numbers.

Khalaili has averaged 2.92 tackles per game across his last 15 domestic appearances, while his away record is even stronger at 3.03 tackles per game over the same period. His willingness to engage opponents and the defensive demands of his role should give him plenty of opportunities to reach three tackles.

Anan Khalaili Over 2.5
Fulham v Crystal Palace [Player Tackles]
15/13

TIP 3: Elliot Anderson - Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at Betway while publishing.

Elliot Anderson over 2.5 tackles also stands out, with the Forest midfielder averaging 3.5 tackles per game this season. His defensive numbers were similarly strong at the World Cup, where he averaged almost three tackles per game for England, suggesting this is not simply a short-term spike.

His home record in the Premier League is particularly encouraging, with Anderson's last 10 home appearances producing tackle counts of 2, 3, 1, 3, 1, 0, 5, 4, 5 and 4. That works out at an average of 3.03 tackles per game, putting him comfortably around the required mark and making three tackles a realistic target.

Elliot Anderson Over 2.5
Man City v Coventry [Player Tackles]
5/4

TIP 4: Pascal Gross - Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Best odds of 2/1 available at bet365 while publishing.

Pascal Groß over 0.5 shots on target looks particularly interesting at the available price. The midfielder has recorded at least one shot on target in seven of his last 10 games, with his recent sequence reading 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1 and 0.

His home numbers are even more consistent, registering 1, 0, 1, 1 and 1 shots on target across his last five home games. With four of those five appearances seeing him land at least one effort on target, the line looks achievable, while the odds make it hard not to fancy Groß as a value option.

Pascal Gross Over 0.5
Brighton v Leeds [Player Shots On Target]
2/1

TIP 5: Reinildo Mandava - Over 1.5 Fouls Committed - 1pt

Best odds of 7/4 available at Betway while publishing.

Reinildo Mandava over 1.5 fouls committed is another line that appeals given his recent disciplinary involvement. He has committed 3, 2, 1, 0 and 2 fouls in his last five Premier League games, meaning he has landed two or more in three of those five appearances.

He averaged 1.3 fouls per game last season, but the matchup could push that number higher, with Reinildo expected to deal with Dango Ouattara and Jaden Anthony, who averaged 1.2 and 1.3 fouls won per game respectively. Both attackers are capable of taking defenders on and forcing challenges, giving Reinildo a clear route towards two fouls in what could be a physically demanding contest.

Reinildo Mandava Over 1.5
Brentford v Sunderland [Player Fouls]
7/4