The EV Eagle has identified five positive value bets for Saturday, including two in Chelsea vs Everton.
Saturday's football schedule features another exciting round of Premier League, Championship and Bundesliga action, and Oddschecker's EV Eagle has identified five selections offering positive expected value.
Our AI-powered betting model analyses thousands of data points to identify bets where the predicted probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.
We've picked out five of EV Eagle's best value bets for Saturday, October 17, including player shots, anytime goalscorer and goal contribution selections from across Europe's major leagues.
EV Eagle's Best Value Bets for Saturday
Morgan Rogers Over 2.5 Shots vs Everton
Cole Palmer to Score or Assist vs Everton
Jarrod Bowen Anytime Goalscorer vs Swansea
Aune Heggebø Anytime Goalscorer vs Blackburn
Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer vs Paderborn
Morgan Rogers Over 2.5 Shots vs Everton
Best odds of 11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes. 1pt advised stake.
Morgan Rogers has recorded three or more shots in five of his last ten appearances across all competitions, including four of his six Premier League matches this season.
His away record is particularly encouraging, with Rogers registering at least three shots in all three of Chelsea's Premier League matches on the road, managing three against Fulham, three against Arsenal and four against Brentford.
Rogers also enters the contest in impressive goalscoring form, having scored four goals in six league appearances, including one in Chelsea's emphatic 5-1 victory over Bournemouth last Saturday.
Everton have conceded an average of 13 shots per game across their opening six Premier League fixtures, including 17 against Bournemouth and 14 against Tottenham at home.
With Rogers clearing this shooting line in all three away league matches this season, the 11/10 available with Coral looks a strong bet. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 48.7% probability of landing, slightly above the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Cole Palmer to Score or Assist vs Everton
Best odds of 11/10 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power. 1pt advised stake.
Chelsea playmaker Cole Palmer has recorded two goals and three assists in six Premier League appearances, registering a goal contribution in four of those matches.
Palmer returned to the scoresheet against Brighton in August, having previously scored and assisted against Fulham. He has also provided assists against Hull City and Bournemouth.
His most recent contribution came in Chelsea's emphatic 5-1 victory over Bournemouth last Saturday, setting up Jordan Henderson's opening goal inside two minutes.
Palmer's underlying creative numbers provide further encouragement. The 24-year-old has registered 13 key passes and created five big chances across his six league appearances, accumulating 0.82 expected assists (xA).
He has also recorded 17 shots, averaging 2.88 attempts per 90 minutes, demonstrating his dual goalscoring and creative threat.
Although Everton have conceded just five Premier League goals this season, they have allowed opponents 8.27 expected goals (xGA), suggesting their defensive record has been stronger than the quality of chances conceded would indicate.
With Chelsea scoring five goals against Bournemouth last weekend and Palmer operating in an advanced attacking role behind João Pedro, he should have ample opportunities to contribute again.
The 11/10 available with Sky Bet looks worth considering, with Oddschecker's EV Eagle model giving Palmer a 51.6% probability of scoring or assisting, above the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Jarrod Bowen Anytime Goalscorer vs Swansea
Best odds of 2/1 available with multiple bookmakers. 1pt staked advised.
West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen has scored six goals in ten Championship appearances, finding the net in five of his last ten matches, including four of his most recent five.
Bowen was particularly impressive in West Ham's emphatic 6-0 victory over Lincoln City on Wednesday, scoring once and providing two assists. That followed his equaliser against QPR last Friday, when he registered six shots, including three on target.
His underlying attacking numbers are equally encouraging. Bowen has registered 42 shots across ten league appearances, averaging 4.2 attempts and 1.6 shots on target per game.
The 29-year-old has also accumulated approximately 6.5 expected goals (xG), demonstrating that his six-goal return is supported by the quality of chances he has received.
The Hammers boast the Championship's most prolific attack, scoring 29 goals in their opening ten matches, including 12 across their last three away fixtures.
Swansea present a difficult challenge, having conceded just seven goals in ten league matches. However, they did allow Burnley 18 shots in September, highlighting that even the Championship leaders can be put under considerable attacking pressure.
With Bowen scoring five goals in his last five league appearances and West Ham continuing to create plenty of chances, the 2/1 available with QuinnBet looks an interesting price.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives Bowen a 38.8% probability of scoring against Swansea, comfortably above the 33.3% implied by the odds.
Aune Heggebø Anytime Goalscorer vs Blackburn
Best odds of 9/4 with Sky Bet when writing. 1pt stake advised.
West Brom striker Aune Heggebø will be looking to build on his midweek heroics when the Baggies welcome Blackburn Rovers to The Hawthorns on Saturday afternoon.
The Norwegian international scored a dramatic 84th-minute winner in West Brom's 2-1 comeback victory over Wrexham on Tuesday, finding the net just eight minutes after entering the pitch as a substitute.
Heggebø has now scored three goals in his last ten Championship appearances, also finding the net against Norwich and Derby County earlier this season.
His underlying attacking numbers offer encouragement, with the 25-year-old accumulating approximately 2.7 expected goals (xG) this campaign, suggesting his three-goal return is broadly supported by the quality of chances he has received.
Blackburn have conceded an average of 17 shots per away match in the Championship this season, including 22 against Portsmouth and 20 against Bristol City in their two most recent away fixtures.
Rovers were particularly fortunate to escape with a 1-0 victory over Bristol City on Tuesday, relying on seven saves from goalkeeper Balázs Tóth to preserve their clean sheet.
Blackburn have also conceded 13 goals from approximately 15.8 expected goals against (xGA) across their opening ten league matches, suggesting opponents have created more chances than their defensive record indicates.
With Heggebø expected to return to West Brom's starting XI following his winning contribution against Wrexham, the 9/4 available with Sky Bet looks worth considering.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 33.1% probability of landing, above the 30.8% implied by the odds.
Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer vs Paderborn
Best odds of 13/10 with Unibet. 1pt stake advised.
Werder Bremen striker Niclas Füllkrug has scored in each of his last four Bundesliga matches against RB Leipzig, Köln, Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund.
Füllkrug was the hero in Bremen's dramatic 2-2 draw against Dortmund last Friday, scoring a stoppage-time equaliser against his former club to extend his goalscoring streak.
The 33-year-old has registered 13 shots in five Bundesliga appearances, accumulating approximately 1.8 expected goals (xG).
Paderborn have conceded seven goals in their opening five Bundesliga matches, including three against Dortmund and two against Stuttgart.
The newly promoted side have also allowed opponents an average of 18.4 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
Paderborn are particularly susceptible to deliveries into the penalty area, conceding an average of 23.4 crosses per match. That could play into Füllkrug's strengths, with the German striker already scoring twice with his head this season.
Werder have also scored three goals in each of their two Bundesliga home matches, with Füllkrug finding the net in both.
With Füllkrug scoring in four consecutive matches and Paderborn regularly allowing opponents chances, the 13/10 available looks an attractive price.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 52.3% probability of landing, comfortably above the 43.5% implied by the odds.
