How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Tuesday's Results:

Julián Álvarez – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Mohamed Salah – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Dominik Szobozlai - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Marcos Llorente - To Be Shown a Card - 1pt - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +20.1pts

West Ham v Wolves

Tip 1: Mateus Fernandes - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 20/21 at QuinnBet while publishing.

Mateus Fernandes is averaging 2.19 fouls per game across his last 10, which already puts him comfortably above this line. More importantly, he has gone over in 4 of his last 5, with counts of 4, 2, 5, 0, 2. That one zero looks more like an outlier than a trend. In a relegation six-pointer, games tend to become more physical and stretched, especially late on. That usually leads to more mistimed challenges, and Fernandes’ role means he is often right in the middle of those duels.

58% AI probability | 51% Odds implied | 13% EV

Tip 2: Joao Gomes - Over 3.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 at SpreadEx while publishing.

João Gomes is operating at a very high defensive volume right now, averaging 3.89 tackles per game in his last 10. He has hit this line in 7 of those matches, including multiple games with 4, 5, and even 6 tackles. His away numbers are just as encouraging, with several 5+ tackle performances. This is not just consistency, it is involvement. He is constantly around the ball, breaking up play, which makes this line very achievable.

54% AI probability | 49% Odds implied | 10% EV

West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall

Tip 3: Joshua Coburn - Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at BetMGM UK at the time of publishing.

Joshua Coburn has cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 matches, which is already strong, but the away numbers stand out even more. In his last five away games, he has hit at least one shot on target every time, with counts of 2, 1, 1, 1, 2. That tells you he travels well and stays involved regardless of venue. As Millwall’s main attacking outlet, most of their chances funnel through him, so even one decent opportunity is usually enough for this to land.

53% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 7% EV

Real Madrid vs Girona

Tip 4: Azz-Eddine Ounahi - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Azz-Eddine Ounahi is one of the most reliable legs here. He has gone over 1.5 shots in 9 of his last 10 matches, and his recent run of 2, 3, 2, 3, 3 shows how steady that output is. This is not dependent on game state either, he consistently looks to shoot. Averaging 2.33 shots per game away from home adds another layer of confidence, especially against a defence that allows space in midfield areas where he operates.

60% AI probability | 48% Odds implied | 27% EV

Roma vs Pisa

Tip 5: Antonio Caracciolo - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 at Coral at the time of publishing.

Antonio Caracciolo offers a solid, repeatable defensive baseline. He averages 2.17 tackles per game across his last 20 and 2.22 in his last 10 away matches, so he is consistently operating above this line. He has cleared it in 4 of his last 5 games, with counts of 4, 3, 2, 1, 2. Even when he drops slightly, he is usually right around the mark. Given his role and positioning, he is regularly involved in defensive actions, which keeps this leg very much in play.

67% AI probability | 49% Odds implied | 37% EV