Liverpool vs Man City

Tip 1: Alexis Mac Allister - 1pt

Best odds of 18/5 at BetVictor while publishing.

Alexis Mac Allister is a strong yellow card candidate because he is often the one asked to break up counters when Liverpool’s press is bypassed. He gets pulled into tactical fouls in central areas, especially in games where the opposition look to play direct and transition quickly.

His recent discipline record backs it up too, with three bookings in his last eight Premier League matches. He has also committed 1, 1, 0, 2 and 1 fouls in his last five games, which keeps him consistently in the referee’s line of sight. If this match becomes stretched, he is one of the likeliest Liverpool midfielders to take the booking for the team.

Tip 2: Antoine Semenyo - 1pt

Best odds of 4/1 available at Paddy Power while publishing.

Semenyo is a strong yellow card angle because he plays on the edge physically and is one of the most foul-prone wingers in the Premier League. He is averaging 1.9 fouls per game this season, which is an unusually high number for a wide attacker and reflects how often he gets dragged into challenges. Before leaving Bournemouth, he was booked in four of his nine league appearances, showing a clear pattern of disciplinary risk.

Now in Manchester City colours, that risk could rise even further as he adjusts to a more intense tactical setup and quicker transitions. His first outing against Liverpool is also a tough environment to settle into, with the speed of play and constant pressure likely to force him into reactive fouls. If he gets pinned back against a direct full-back or is forced into recovery runs, a booking becomes a very realistic outcome.

For Semenyo, the numbers also point strongly towards value. EV Eagle AI puts his booking probability at 27%, well above the 20% implied line, creating a 34% EV edge.

Tip 3: Rodri - 1pt

Best odds of 19/5 at BetVictor while publishing.

Rodri is a strong yellow card candidate right now, largely because his discipline has fallen away since returning from injury. He has been booked four times in his last five matches, which is a huge spike for a player who is normally more controlled. His foul numbers back it up too, committing 2, 2, 1, 0, 1 fouls across his last five games, showing he is still being forced into regular defensive interventions.

This is also a fixture where Liverpool will actively try to target him, especially with quick transitions through the middle and runners looking to pull him into tactical fouls. Rodri has been booked at Anfield in the past as well, and the intensity of that environment only adds to the risk. EV Eagle AI makes this a value angle too, projecting a 24.59% probability compared to a 20.83% implied line, which gives an 18.03% EV edge.