Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Tip 1: Adam Wharton Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 7/10 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Wharton is averaging 1.4 shots per game across his last 15 starts and has registered at least one shot in 13 of those matches. Importantly, his shot output has held up against stronger opposition, managing attempts against Arsenal(in both meetings), Manchester City, and Spurs, including three shots against City and Spurs in that spell. Crystal Palace are now winless in six games and should be playing with increased urgency. Wharton simply needs to attempt one shot.

Fulham v Liverpool

Tip 2: Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 4/5 at bet365 while publishing.

Van Dijk has made a tackle in all of his last four Premier League starts. Looking at Fulham specifically, opposition centre-backs have recorded the following tackle counts against them: 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 0, 3, 1, 1, 4, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 0, 3, 5, 0, 0.

That works out at an average of around 1.5 tackles per game for centre-backs, which is no surprise given Raul Jimenez is Fulham’s third most dispossessed player. With Fulham regularly playing on the counter, Van Dijk should be involved enough defensively to land at least one tackle.

Leeds v Man United

Tip 3: Casemiro Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 17/20 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Casemiro has landed over 1.5 fouls in 55% of his last 20 games, but that figure undersells his true foul output because his minutes are often limited. That tends to skew bookmaker pricing, despite his fouls per 90 being strong. When factoring in Super Sub, Casemiro has made more than one foul in 70% of his last 20 appearances, with six of the last seven games clearing the 1.5 line.

The matchup also helps here. With Bruno Fernandes out through injury, Casemiro is likely to be directly matched against Aaronson, who is winning 1.89 fouls per 90 and is Leeds’ most fouled player.