Oli Nixon's Premier League Tips & Best Bets for Saturday

Bournemouth v Aston Villa

Tip 1: Amine Adli o1.5 fouls committed – 1 unit

Best odds of 5/6 at bet365 while publishing.

Amine Adli has been deployed on the left side of Bournemouth’s attack since Antoine Semenyo’s departure, and with an average of 3.36 fouls per 90, it’s safe to say he’s struggling to stay within the rules when it comes to physicality in the Premier League. The Moroccan winger has made at least two infringements in each of his last five league starts and is showing no sign of adapting his enthusiastic approach.

Up against Adli will likely be Villa’s right-side duo of Matty Cash and Jadon Sancho, who are drawing 1.17 fouls per 90 between them. Across the Villans' last six games, opposition left wingers have committed nine offences, including Kevin Schade being sent off last time out, and so it’s an area of the pitch with plenty of infringements, which Adli is more than capable of providing.

Burnley v West Ham

Tip 2: O23.5 shots in – 2 units

Best odds of 21/20 at Betway while publishing.

Given the magnitude of this fixture, we can expect at least one team to be throwing everything at the other, no matter what the scoreline and potentially both these sides going all-out-attack if it’s a stalemate. Both teams are well adrift of safety and will have earmarked this game as ‘must-win’, and so it has all the makings of an end-to-end game with plenty of efforts at goal.

Burnley’s last four games at Turf Moor have been just that, with an average of 32.5 shots and all of those matches seeing 27 or more. West Ham’s away games are equally chaotic in terms of attempts at goal, with 27.4 per game on the road under Nuno Espirito Santo and at least 24 in 80% of those. When we throw in the importance of this fixture with all that data, the shot line looks generously low and one that we can attack – especially given there were 31 shots in the reverse.

Tip 3: Pablo Felipe o1.5 fouls committed – 1 unit

Best odds of 5/6 at Bet365 while publishing.

Having discussed how crucial this game is for both sides, it also makes sense that there should be plenty of fouls. The previous meeting saw 28 offences as players were flying into challenges, and someone who is no stranger to that is January signing Pablo Felipe. The Hammers forward has committed 3.35 fouls per 90 across his four Premier League appearances, and with him having made 2.26 per game in Portugal before arriving in London, it’s a trend we can expect the Brazilian to maintain.

Playing just behind Valentin Castellanos, Pablo will be opposing Lesley Ugochukwu and Luis Florentino who, between them, are fouled 1.68 times per 90. Across the Clarets' last three games, opposition attacking midfielders have been responsible for six fouls between them, and with Pablo used to drawing the attention of the officials, we can rely on him to get stuck in and catching players late in that role.

Wolves v Chelsea 

Tip 4: Liam Delap o0.5 tackles  – 1 unit

Best odds of 10/11 at bet365 while publishing.

Since Liam Rosenior’s arrival as Chelsea's boss, a key change in their data is that whoever plays as his starting striker is heavily involved defensively as part of their press. Across his eight games in charge, Joao Pedro and Liam Delap have rotated in this role, and they’ve managed to make seven tackles between them, with Delap having landed this bet in each of his three starts. During Rosenior’s spell as Strasbourg manager, his central striker was usually Joaquin Panichelli who averaged 1.09 tackles per 90 across his tenure so this is clearly a pattern we can expect to continue.

Wolves setting up with three centre-backs makes them more inclined to play out from the back and, therefore, more susceptible to being dispossessed by opposition strikers. Across their last eight matches in all competitions, forwards playing through the middle have combined for 11 tackles with seven separate players landing this bet, and so with a renewed defensive responsibility, hopefully Delap can oblige.