World Cup 2026: Five Biggest Bets Placed Through Oddschecker

With the 2026 World Cup almost here, bettors have already been getting stuck into the outright markets through Oddschecker.

The expanded tournament format adds a new layer to these bets. For the first time, 48 teams will compete across 12 groups of four, with the top two in each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing to a new Round of 32. That means more teams, more knockout football and more opportunities for outright bets to swing dramatically over the course of the tournament.

Here are the five biggest 2026 World Cup outright bets placed through the Oddschecker platform, and why each one could be good value.

1. First Time Tournament Winner - No @ 2/5

The biggest 2026 World Cup outright bet placed through Oddschecker so far is on First Time Tournament Winner - No at 2/5.

At first glance, this is not the sort of price that screams value. It is short, conservative and asks bettors to side with World Cup history rather than the romance of a new name on the trophy. But when the market is broken down, the logic becomes clear: this is effectively a bet against every nation that has never won the World Cup, rather than a bet on one specific heavyweight.

Only eight countries have ever won the World Cup: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England and Spain. Several of those nations remain prominent in the 2026 outright market, with Spain, France, England, Argentina, Brazil and Germany all carrying obvious tournament-winning credentials.

The main danger comes from Portugal and the Netherlands, who look the strongest candidates to become first-time winners, while nations such as Norway, Morocco, Croatia, Belgium and the USA could all be dangerous in one-off matches. However, backing a first-time winner still requires one of those sides to navigate the expanded format, survive a deeper knockout stage and outperform multiple proven tournament heavyweights.

That is why No at 1.40 can appeal to bettors. It is not about picking the winner, but opposing the combined chances of every nation yet to lift the trophy. Given how strongly the top of the market is still weighted towards previous winners, this looks like a sensible lower-risk outright angle for punters who want exposure to the World Cup without relying on one specific team.

2. Argentina to Make the Quarter-Final @ 2.0

The second-biggest bet is Argentina to make the quarter-final at 2.0, a price that implies only a 50% chance of the defending champions reaching the last eight.

That looks generous when you consider Argentina’s tournament profile. Lionel Scaloni’s side arrive as reigning world champions, with much of the core that won in Qatar still involved. Lionel Messi remains the headline act, but Argentina are not simply a one-man team, with Emiliano Martinez, Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez all giving them proven quality and experience in key areas.

The draw also helps the case. Argentina are in Group J alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan, a section they will expect to navigate. If they top the group, they should give themselves a strong platform for the knockout stage, even if the expanded format means reaching the quarter-final now requires surviving the Round of 32 and the last 16.

There are risks. Defending a World Cup is notoriously difficult, Messi is now in the final phase of his career and Argentina’s ageing core will have to handle the physical demands of a longer tournament. But this bet does not ask them to win it again. It only asks one of the most battle-tested squads in international football to reach the final eight.

At even money, that feels like a fair value play on experience, structure and tournament know-how.

3. Curaçao Exact Group Points - 0 @ 4/7

Curaçao to finish the group stage with exactly 0 points at 4/7 looks a harsh but understandable bet given the scale of the task facing the World Cup debutants.

Their qualification story is one of the best of the tournament. Curaçao are the smallest country ever to qualify for a World Cup, and their squad has a strong Dutch connection that means they should not simply be dismissed as a novelty act. There is enough professional experience in the group for them to be competitive in spells.

However, the draw has given them very little margin for error. Curaçao are in Group E with Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast, and all three opponents will realistically view the match against the debutants as a must-win fixture. Germany bring elite tournament pedigree, Ecuador are one of South America’s most organised and athletic teams, while Ivory Coast have the power, pace and individual quality to make life extremely difficult.

Dick Advocaat’s experience should help Curaçao stay organised, and they may prove more stubborn than the market expects. Even so, avoiding defeat in any of their three matches still looks a big ask when every opponent has knockout-stage ambitions.

At 4/7, this bet implies a probability of around 64%. Given the level jump, the tough group and the pressure on their opponents to collect points and potentially improve goal difference, 0 group points looks a credible value angle.

4. France/Kylian Mbappe - Winner/Top Goalscorer @ 16/1

The fourth-biggest bet is France to win the tournament and Kylian Mbappé to finish top scorer at 16/1, and this is one of the more interesting outright angles because the two outcomes are so closely linked.

If France win the World Cup, Mbappé is likely to be central to it. He should start almost every meaningful game, take penalties and be the focal point of one of the deepest attacking squads in the tournament. That gives this double a clear logic: a deep France run increases Mbappé’s Golden Boot chances, while a big Mbappé tournament significantly increases France’s title chances.

France have the pedigree to justify their place near the top of the outright market. They won the World Cup in 2018, reached the final again in 2022 and still have a squad packed with elite options. Mbappé is supported by Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki and others, giving Didier Deschamps the sort of attacking depth few nations can match.

Mbappé has already proven he can dominate this market, winning the 2022 Golden Boot with eight goals, including a hat-trick in the final against Argentina. In the expanded format, a finalist will now play eight matches rather than seven, which only strengthens the case for Golden Boot candidates attached to tournament favourites.

There are obvious dangers. Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Lionel Messi and others will all have their backers, while France’s Group I draw with Senegal, Iraq and Norway is not without threats. But at 16/1, this is not a wild long shot. It is a correlated double built around one of the best players in the world playing for one of the teams most likely to go deep.

5. Harry Kane to Win Golden Boot @ 13/2 (Each-Way)

The fifth-biggest bet is Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot at 7.5 each-way, four places, and the each-way terms are crucial to the appeal.

Kane is not just a Golden Boot contender because of reputation. He comes into the World Cup after a remarkable season for Bayern Munich, having scored heavily at club level and retained his status as one of the most reliable finishers in world football. For England, his role is even more important. He is the captain, the penalty taker, the focal point and the player most likely to turn England’s possession into goals.

That matters in a Golden Boot market because minutes, penalties and team progression are everything. Kane should have all three if England go deep. Thomas Tuchel’s side have been drawn in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama, and while Croatia represent a difficult opening test, England will still expect to create chances across the group stage.

Kane has been here before, too. He won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup and is England’s record goalscorer. With Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and other creative players around him, he should receive the kind of service needed to build a tournament tally.

At 7.5 with four places, Kane profiles as one of the most logical Golden Boot bets on the board.