World Cup 2026: EV Eagle selects five top standout best bets for Friday's football action.
Friday’s final group-stage matches in the World Cup bring qualification tension and a range of strong player prop opportunities across Groups G, H and I.
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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
TIP 1: Kylian Mbappe - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt
Best odds of 21/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Odds Implied: 49% | AI Probability: 62% | Expected Value: 27%
Kylian Mbappé enters this fixture with plenty of individual motivation alongside France's pursuit of another World Cup victory. The Real Madrid superstar has already scored 4 goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, placing him among the leading contenders in the Golden Boot race and within touching distance of more World Cup history.
Mbappé currently sits level with Miroslav Klose's tally among the competition's all-time great goalscorers and will be eager to continue closing the gap to Lionel Messi, who has surged to the top of both the Golden Boot standings and the all-time World Cup scoring charts. Few players thrive under pressure quite like Mbappé, and when records are on the line, he tends to raise his level even further.
His club form has been equally remarkable. Mbappé scored 42 goals in 44 appearances for Real Madrid last season, once again proving himself as one of the most clinical forwards in world football. With his pace, movement and ability to create chances out of nothing, he remains France's most dangerous attacking weapon and is always a threat to find the scoresheet.
TIP 2: Ismaïla Sarr – To Score or Assist - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 at Skybet while publishing.
Odds Implied: 31% | AI Probability: 33% | Expected Value: 8%
Senegal's hopes of reaching the knockout rounds may well rest on the shoulders of Ismaïla Sarr. The Crystal Palace winger has enjoyed the most productive season of his career, scoring 21 goals across all competitions and establishing himself as one of the Premier League's most dangerous wide attackers.
Sarr arrives full of confidence after scoring a brace in Senegal's previous World Cup match, continuing the rich vein of form he has carried throughout the season. His direct running, explosive pace and eye for goal make him a constant threat in transition, while his improved end product has elevated him into a genuine match-winner.
With Senegal needing a victory, they are expected to play aggressively and commit numbers forward. That should place Sarr at the heart of their attacking play, whether he's finishing chances himself or creating opportunities for teammates. Given his recent form and the stakes involved, another direct goal contribution looks a realistic outcome.
TIP 3: Kevin De Bruyne - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt
Best odds of 13/8 at bet365 while publishing.
Odds Implied: 38% | AI Probability: 43% | Expected Value: 13%
Kevin De Bruyne may be renowned for his creativity, but the Belgian captain remains a significant goal threat whenever he operates in advanced areas. The veteran midfielder has recorded an anytime goalscorer return in four of his last ten competitive matches, highlighting his ability to contribute directly in the final third despite primarily being known as a playmaker.
He found the back of the net 6 times in as many matches in Belgium's World Cup qualification run. De Bruyne's intelligence around the box, late runs into dangerous areas and elite shooting technique make him a difficult player to contain. With opponents often focusing on Belgium's forwards, the midfielder frequently finds space to arrive unmarked and punish defensive lapses. In a match where Belgium are expected to create chances, De Bruyne has every opportunity to add another goal to his international tally.
TIP 4: Dani Olmo - To Score Or Assist - 1pt
Best odds of 6/5 at Virgin Bet while publishing.
Odds Implied: 49% | AI Probability: 62% | Expected Value: 27%
Dani Olmo looks well placed to play a significant attacking role for Spain. With qualification scenarios potentially allowing Spain to rotate key players, Olmo is expected to feature in a more advanced position where his creativity and movement can have maximum influence.
The Barcelona playmaker has recorded 2 assists in his last 4 appearances for Spain, continuing to show his importance in the final third. Whether operating between the lines or drifting into wider areas, Olmo consistently finds dangerous spaces and creates opportunities for teammates.
Uruguay's defence has looked vulnerable at times during the tournament, and Spain's possession-heavy approach should create plenty of opportunities around the penalty area. Given Olmo's technical quality and expected role in attack, backing him to register either a goal or an assist looks a strong option.
TIP 5: Mohamed Salah - To Score Or Assist - 1pt
Best odds of 7/5 at Unibet while publishing.
Odds Implied: 49% | AI Probability: 62% | Expected Value: 27%
Few players carry their nation's attacking hopes quite like Mohamed Salah. Egypt's captain remains the focal point of everything positive going forward, and his recent record suggests he is more than capable of delivering when the stakes are highest.
Salah has recorded a goal or assist in 6 of Egypt's last 8 competitive matches, underlining both his consistency and importance to the national team. Whether creating chances for teammates or finishing opportunities himself, he remains Egypt's most dangerous attacking outlet.
His movement, composure in front of goal and ability to produce moments of quality from limited opportunities make him a constant threat throughout ninety minutes. With Egypt relying heavily on their talisman to drive them forward, Salah looks well positioned to contribute directly to the scoresheet once again.
