Check out our best bets for Mexico vs England, featuring a 5/1 bet builder and an England midfielder to be carded.
Mexico vs England BettingSee All Odds
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Mexico and England meet at the Estadio Azteca tonight in a huge Round of 16 tie, with a place in the World Cup quarter-finals on the line. Javier Aguirre’s side have been one of the stories of the tournament so far, winning all four matches without conceding and ending their long wait for a World Cup knockout win by beating Ecuador 2-0 in the Round of 32.
England, meanwhile, came through a difficult knockout test against DR Congo, with Harry Kane scoring twice in a 2-1 comeback win. Thomas Tuchel’s side have not always been fluent, but they remain one of the strongest squads left in the competition and will know that a win would take them within two matches of another World Cup semi-final.
Check out our best bets for the match, featuring Julián Quiñones to commit 2+ fouls, our 9/2 Bet Builder tip and Elliot Anderson to be shown a card.
Mexico vs England Best Bet
Recommended Bet: Julián Quiñones to commit 2+ fouls
Best Odds: 17/10 (Coral/Ladbrokes) or 6/4 with bet365 (Super Sub & Extra-Time included)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Julián Quiñones to commit two or more fouls looks a strong betting angle for Mexico vs England, with the Mexico wide player likely to be asked to do a lot of defensive work in a high-intensity knockout tie at the Azteca.
The England match-up is the key reason this price stands out. Left-midfielders have committed two or more fouls in all four of England’s World Cup matches so far, which suggests their right side has consistently forced opponents into repeated defensive actions.
Quiñones has committed at least one foul in each of his last six matches, reaching two or more fouls in three of those games. Across his Mexico competitive appearances, he has committed 2+ fouls in three of nine.
His role should be important on both sides of the ball. Mexico will want Quiñones to provide direct running and support Raúl Jiménez in transition, but he may also have to track England’s right-sided attacks. Depending on Tuchel’s setup, he could come up against Saka or Noni Madueke on the wing, with Djed Spence or Ezri Konsa supporting from right-back.
Saka wins 1.6 fouls per 90, Konsa 1.5, Spence 0.9 and Madueke 0.8, so England have several players on that side capable of drawing contact. If England control territory and Mexico spend long spells defending, Quiñones may be forced into tactical fouls, recovery challenges and pressing actions.
Who is favourite to win Mexico vs England?
England are marginal favourites to win in the 90 minute market at odds of 6/4. Mexico are 2/1 and the draw is priced at 21/10.
Mexico vs England Bet Builder Tip
Our Bet Builder Tip (1pt stake advised) for Mexico vs England is:
- England over 1.5 team cards
- Nico O’Reilly to commit 2+ fouls
- Harry Kane to win 1+ foul
- Harry Kane to have 3+ shots
Leg 1: England over 1.5 team cards
England over 1.5 cards is the discipline angle in this Bet Builder, with Tuchel’s side likely to face a demanding knockout tie at the Azteca.
Mexico’s home competitive matches have regularly forced opponents into disciplinary trouble, with 24 of their last 30 competitive home opponents receiving two or more cards. That is a strong trend, especially when combined with the pressure, altitude and crowd intensity England will have to manage.
If Mexico look to play with energy and transition quickly through Quiñones, Alvarado, Gilberto Mora and Jiménez, England may need to make tactical fouls to slow attacks down.
Leg 2: Nico O’Reilly to commit 2+ fouls
O’Reilly to commit two or more fouls links directly to Mexico’s right-sided threat, with Alvarado likely to be one of the key players he has to manage.
Alvarado has been fouled two or more times in 15 of his last 21 appearances for club and country, showing how often he draws contact when carrying the ball or receiving wide. O’Reilly’s own foul profile also supports the leg, with at least one foul committed in 42 of his 51 starts this season and two or more fouls in nine of his previous 17 matches.
Left-backs have committed foul totals of 2, 0, 0 and 2 against Mexico at this World Cup, so there is already a route for players in O’Reilly’s position to be dragged into defensive actions.
Leg 3: Harry Kane to win 1+ foul
Kane to win at least one foul is a low-line leg built around his role as England’s central reference point.
He has been fouled in 25 of his 28 tournament matches for England, which shows how consistently defenders make contact when he drops short, protects the ball or competes in penalty-box duels.
Mexico’s centre-backs will need to stay tight to him, especially when England look to play through Bellingham, Saka and Rashford. Even in a tight game, Kane should have enough touches with his back to goal to draw at least one foul.
Leg 4: Harry Kane to have 3+ shots
Kane to have three or more shots completes the Bet Builder by targeting England’s main attacking outlet.
He has recorded 3+ shots in four consecutive tournament appearances and has reached this line in seven of his last 10 tournament matches against teams ranked lower than England. That makes him the clearest England player to trust for shot volume.
Mexico have not conceded at the tournament, but England should still create periods of pressure. If Tuchel’s side dominate possession or need to chase the game, Kane should be the focal point for crosses, cut-backs, second balls and set-piece deliveries.
At the time of writing, the Bet Builder pays a best price of 9/2 with bet365 and Paddy Power.
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Mexico vs England Player Card Bet
Recommended Bet: Elliot Anderson to be shown a card
Best Odds: 4/1 (10Bet)
Advised Stake: 1pt
Elliot Anderson to be shown a card is an appealing player-card bet for Mexico vs England, with the midfielder likely to be involved in a physical central battle at the Azteca.
At least one central midfielder has been booked against Mexico in three of their four World Cup matches so far, which suggests opponents in that zone are being forced into repeated defensive actions.
Anderson also carries a clear disciplinary profile. He was booked in three of his final six Nottingham Forest away games of the season as they chased Premier League safety, showing he is no stranger to picking up cards when matches become intense or high-pressure.
His foul volume adds further support. Anderson has committed two or more fouls in 10 of his last 15 appearances for club and country, so the workload is regularly there. In a knockout match where England will need to control Mexico’s energy, altitude advantage and home crowd, he could be asked to make tactical fouls before transitions develop.
Mexico’s midfield and attacking runners should test him. Mora, Fidalgo, Quiñones and Alvarado can all receive between lines or carry into space, while Jiménez gives Mexico a focal point to play into. If England lose control for spells, Anderson may be one of the players tasked with stopping attacks early.
Mexico vs England Predicted Lineups
Mexico predicted XI:
Rangel; Sánchez, Vásquez, Montes, Gallardo; Lira, Romo, Mora; Alvarado, Jiménez, Quiñones.
England predicted XI:
Pickford; Spence, Konsa, Guéhi, O’Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Mexico vs England Match Prediction
Mexico enter this tie with huge momentum, a perfect defensive record and the backing of the Azteca crowd. Aguirre’s side have already ended one major knockout-stage drought by beating Ecuador, and their clean-sheet run shows they have the structure and discipline to make this difficult for England.
The 4-3-3 gives Mexico plenty of balance, with Lira, Romo and Mora offering protection in midfield and the front three carrying threat in transition. Quiñones and Alvarado should be important outlets either side of Jiménez, especially if England’s full-backs push high.
England still have the stronger individual quality, with Kane, Bellingham and Saka giving Tuchel several routes to goal. Gordon’s pace on the left could also be useful if Mexico leave space behind Sánchez, while Rice and Anderson will be key to stopping Mexico from building momentum through midfield.
This looks like a tight knockout tie rather than a comfortable England win. Mexico’s home advantage, altitude and defensive record should keep them competitive, but England’s attacking depth may just be enough if Kane and Bellingham find space in the decisive moments.
Score Prediction: Mexico 1-2 England
