EV Eagle picks out four strong betting angles for the first World Cup Semi-Final between France and Spain.
France v SpainSee All Odds
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TIP 1: Kylian Mbappe - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt
Best odds of 6/5 at Sporting Index while publishing.
Kylian Mbappé enters this semi-final as the standout candidate for an anytime-goalscorer selection. He has already scored eight times at the tournament and shares the lead in the Golden Boot race with Lionel Messi.
With Erling Haaland eliminated, the battle for the top-scorer award increasingly appears to be between those two, although players such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham remain capable of closing the gap. Mbappé’s underlying numbers are equally compelling: he is averaging 5.21 shots per game at this World Cup, while his shots on target totals of 2, 4, 4, 2, 3 and 4 illustrate remarkable consistency in forcing saves.
Spain conceded in the competition for the first time and they did appear vulnerable during stretches of their quarter-final against Belgium. Added motivation comes from history itself—Mbappé is bidding to become the first player ever to win consecutive World Cup Golden Boots, giving him every incentive to maintain his relentless pursuit of goal.
TIP 2: Lamine Yamal - Over 3.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 21/20 at Unibet while publishing.
The case for the over on shots is compelling for Lamine Yamal. In his World Cup starts he has attempted 6, 3, 6, 1 and 5 shots, clearing the 3.5 line in three of five matches and averaging 4.2 efforts per start. The one-game dip to a single attempt looks more like an outlier than a trend when viewed alongside his broader record of 4.39 shots per appearance across his last 10 games for Spain.
Yamal’s willingness to shoot from a variety of positions, coupled with his role on direct free kicks, ensures a steady stream of opportunities. On the biggest stage, his confidence and desire to make a defining impact for Spain should only reinforce that aggressive approach, making four or more shots a very attainable target.
TIP 3: Pedro Porro - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 7/4 at Ladbrokes while publishing.
The over on fouls committed is well supported for Pedro Porro. He is averaging 1.75 fouls per game at this World Cup, already placing him close to the two-foul threshold before accounting for the increased intensity that typically accompanies the latter stages of major tournaments. His quarter-final against Belgium offered a glimpse of how vulnerable he can be when confronted by an elite dribbler: the direct running of Jérémy Doku drew four fouls from Porro alone.
Facing a French front three featuring Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé should provide a similarly stern examination. With so much pace and one-on-one ability to contain, Porro is likely to be forced into repeated recovery challenges, making two or more fouls a very attainable outcome.
TIP 4: Michael Olise - Over 2.5 Fouls Won - 1pt
Best odds of 7/5 at Betfred while publishing.
The over on fouls won is an attractive angle for Michael Olise. His World Cup returns of 4, 3, 1, 2, 1 and 2 fouls won show a player who consistently invites contact through direct dribbling and intelligent movement between the lines. He has gone over the 2.5 line in consecutive matches, and the early tournament numbers are even more encouraging when one considers that he was substituted around the hour mark in two of his first three appearances.
Across his last nine starts for France he is averaging 2.56 fouls won per game, while his last ten starts have produced figures of 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 4, 0 and 3, clearing this mark on five occasions. Olise’s close control, awareness of space and willingness to attack defenders one-on-one make him exceptionally difficult to contain legally, giving him a strong chance of drawing three or more fouls once again.
