How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

TIP 1: Harry Kane - Over 1.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at 10bet while publishing.

Harry Kane has been one of the most reliable players for testing the goalkeeper throughout this World Cup. He has registered shots on target totals of 2, 1, 3, 2, 1 and 3, clearing this 1.5 line in four of his six tournament appearances. His broader form is equally encouraging, having exceeded 1.5 shots on target in seven of his last 10 matches for England.

Kane remains the focal point of England's attack, taking the majority of their central chances while also being the first option from set pieces and penalties. With England expected to create opportunities against Argentina, another game with at least two efforts on target looks well within reach.

TIP 2: Lionel Messi - Over 3.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 59/50 at VirginBet while publishing.

Lionel Messi continues to dominate Argentina's attacking output, making the over on shots an appealing selection. His World Cup shot totals of 4, 5, 9, 2, 7 and 6 have seen him clear this line in five of six matches, averaging 5.5 shots per game. Looking at a wider sample, his last ten starts for Argentina have produced 4, 5, 9, 7, 6, 7, 4, 3, 3 and 7 shots, comfortably averaging well above the required mark.

In fact, only 30-shot Kylian Mbappé has come close to matching Messi's shot volume at this World Cup, with the Argentine leading the tournament on 33 attempts. Everything in Argentina's attack flows through Messi, and whether from open play, free-kicks or efforts from the edge of the area, he consistently finds opportunities to pull the trigger.

TIP 3: Alexis Mac Allister - Over 2.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 10/11 at William Hill while writing.

Alexis Mac Allister has developed into one of Argentina's most effective ball-winners, making this tackle line particularly attractive. His tackle numbers across his last seven international appearances read 3, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4 and 1, clearing this line in five of those seven matches. Notably, one of the matches in which he failed to do so came against Jordan, where he was introduced from the bench rather than starting.

Operating in a midfield that relies heavily on aggressive pressing and winning second balls, Mac Allister should have plenty of opportunities to make defensive interventions against England's technically gifted midfield. His recent consistency suggests another three-tackle performance is well within reach.

TIP 4: Ezri Konsa - Over 1.5 Fouls Won - 1pt

Best odds of 6/5 at bet365 while publishing.

Ezri Konsa has quietly become one of England's most effective players at drawing fouls. He has cleared this line in four of his six World Cup appearances, while his last eight matches for England have produced fouls won totals of 0, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 1. Those figures highlight a player who consistently invites contact through his strength, movement and willingness to carry the ball into contested areas.

Among England players at this World Cup, only Jude Bellingham has won more fouls than Konsa. Against an aggressive Argentine side that rarely allows opponents time on the ball, Konsa has every chance of drawing multiple infringements once again.