The Rolex series rolls onto Lake Garda this week and the Gardagolf complex which hasn't held a major tour event for 15 years. Mathias Gronberg was the winner way back when and this year sees a real treat for anyone holidaying in that part of the world right now.

The golfers will no doubt wax lyrical about the place and there's no doubt a few will put on a few pounds with the pizza/pasta excesses but hopefully we will be joining them in not shedding any pounds this week. The course is a tree lined, parkland layout which looks very pretty on the eye.

Low scores will be essential to contend here but there's no doubt an ounce of strategy will be involved. Although not as claustrophobic as last week, there is plenty of trees to contend with and primarily on the tee is where the test will start. It gets easier as you approach the greens so hitting fairways and a hot putter are the keys I am looking to this week. 

Molinari understandably edges favouritism after a last minute scare on the 18th green last Sunday at Wentworth. He has played well there countless times before without getting over the line so it was seen as a well earned victory and one not before time.

The Italian has loved this event down the years although he isn't the most prolific of winners so question marks surround whether he is a betting prospect around the 10/1 mark. I'm happy to let it pass by. It's one of those 'no tears shed' winners should he do the business. Similarly Fleetwood and Noren are short enough given this is a new track to them many more. Fitzpatrick is an interesting case having stalled in the middle of last week only to finish well again on Sunday. Two years on the trot there he has come from behind on day four shooting 66,67 on his last two Sundays in Surrey.

That irritates me if anything if you had backed him as sometimes there are lapses in concentration in the young mans game throughout the course of the week. A handful of very good judges online have mentioned Mathew for Wentworth last week and this week in Italy. I totally agree with the reasoning behind backing him, especially around these tree lined tracks but from an odds compiling point of view I don't see how it's a tasty bet, despite his clear chances. My hunch is that Matthew is good enough to win a major or two in his career, I think he is 'that' good. However, playing him at these prices in high profile European events isn't exactly tickling my rear end. I'd rather take the risk in some higher profile events, maybe WGC's and Majors in the next couple of years.

It leaves me uncomfortable not backing him as I'm a big supporter of the lad and I don't think odds compilers up and down the land realise just how good he will be.  I have stated before value isn't everything in trying to profit from gambling, but in this case at a skinny price I have to think it matters here. There's no doubting his talent, but the sulky attitude sometimes during bad spells in a round certainly doesn't help him. I don't expect him to be perfect and he is racking up enough wins to stick two fingers up to me for questioning his attitude sometimes, but it's enough to tempt me away from playing at odds such as these this week and last week at Wentworth. 

Instead my vote goes to RAFA CABRERA-BELLO. He is always one who I have on my radar when a degree of strategy is needed. Twice a runner up in Hong Kong where trees line fairways and plenty of narrow shoots to concentrate the mind. He is a superlative record on Links where he is very capable in avoiding the worst of trouble. That was evident last week at Wentworth with four very solid rounds of 72-68-70-68. His iron game has been slightly off most of the season but signs are a win is only around the corner. He ranked 2nd in driving accuracy last week and 1st in putting.

It has been clear Bello needed to improve his short game and that is what he has concentrated on this last few years, possibly to the slight detriment of his long game. You don't post a top 20 at Sawgrass without your long game in solid nick also so everything points towards the Spaniard having a big week. He ranks 4th this year in the putts per GIR which is a remarkable improvement since a few years ago.

He has now racked up an eye watering 37 top 5 finishes on both tours. Chris Hanson tweeted this evening saying the course is quite soft underfoot which should play into his hands. Lake Garda is infamous for thunderstorms this time of year and that extra give in the ground will give the Spaniard an extra lift with his length off the tee. Certainly the best betting prospect of the week for me.

3pts each-way R.Cab-Bello  22/1  (1/5 6)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 3pts e/w @ 22/1

I found it difficult to sift out a bet in this event so I'll only have one more stab in the shape of RYAN FOX. The Kiwi ranked 6th in putts per GIR last week and if he can continue in that manner he may contend on a week where plenty of birdies are needed.

He hits the ball a mile and soft conditions are going to suit him also. Four rounds at Wentworth is seen as a minor success after some inconsistency the past 6 months. Nevertheless, that's 3 made cuts on the trot and we are now at the time of year where he started playing extremely well last year.

I've got high hopes for Fox even after some dodgy performances the past 12 months and I am determined to cash in at some point. This week rates as a good opportunity given how low he can go.

0.75pt each-way  R.Fox  125/1 (1/5 8)

Ryan Fox - 0.75pts e/w @ 125/1