This is one of the more difficult events to land on the tour simply down to the birdie fest that it has always been. Nevertheless, since the event was re shaped a few years ago and the Stadium course here is centre stage it has thrown up a few more predictable results. A few years ago Dufner broke my heart when upending David Lingmerth in a playoff having got extremely lucky with an errant shot on the island green 17th. The Pete Dye angle was my approach back then and it hasn't changed much since. Many have performed well on Dye courses and turned up here to play four good rounds and I'll have those records to hand when attempting to pick a winner here. Crooked Stick, Louisiana, Sawgrass and River Highlands will be the courses I'll look to. The Stadium course in particular here throws up a fair amount of drama similar to other Dye tracks.

Rahm defends his title here and slots in as jolly to nobody's surprise. I'm never a huge fan of taking single figures about a golfer who needs to shot around 20 under par to win when you also know there will be a handful of others threatening the same number. Rose makes his first outing of the year with new sticks in hand and anyone taking single figures about that being a smooth transition is a brave (wo)man. Careful now. Cantlay makes the most appeal out of the top guns but may needs this week to shake off some rust and we've seen from down the years those who have participated in the past two weeks generally have an advantage here.

Outside of Rahm and Rose I believe AARON WISE (best price 30-1) is the standout golfer in terms of what he could go on to achieve in the game. He has bags of talent and I think he'll be a future major winner. He has already achieved a great deal in a short space of time. He ruthlessly won the Byron Nelson last May holding off a relentless Leishman who managed to stay with him all week until the final few holes. He doesn't really have the Dye angle that I'm looking for but has finished 17th and 34th in his first two attempts here which show he has the numbers to compete. A 3rd round total of 72 was the slip last year which meant he was just too far off the pace heading into day four. It is worth noting though that his win at the Byron Nelson was 23 under par. Two other wins on Web and Canadian tour were won at 21 and 19 under par respectively. He is one who can take advantage of the opportunities here and has the flair to deal with the stadium course. His price isn't overly inspiring but looks like the best bet towards the top of the market for me.

1.5pts each-way A.Wise 30/1 (1/5 7)

Aaron Wise - 1.5pts e/w @ 30/1

ZACH JOHNSON (best price 55-1) arrives here at a very tempting number given his likeness for Dye courses and someone with the winning record that he has is crying out to be backed here this week. He missed the cut at last weeks Sony Open but after a few months off we can easily put a line through that and hope for some better in La Quinta. Zach finished 3rd here in 2014 and if eh can get to grips with the Stadium course here he will prove to be a threat. He is 26/30 cuts made at the four Dye tracks mentioned in the preview and of course has a runner up finish at Sawgrass just like Lingmerth had when I had backed him in 2016. In the middle of last year he posted 6 top 20 finishes on the trot which included one WGC and 3 majors. His last outing in 2018 resulted in a 7th placed finish at the RSM. He has been too easily dismissed here by the bookies and we'll have a decent each-way bet.

1.5pts each-way Z.Johnson 55/1 (1/5 7)

Zach Johnson - 1.5pts e/w @ 55/1

SI WOO KIM (best price 80-1) has played well here down the years having not been outside the top 25 in three outings. He missed the cut last week but Waialee is a fairly tricky spot and if you're not totally on your game you will find it hard to keep up with the tee to green merchants. This week is slightly different and should offer up more opportunities for Si Woo. More importantly he has the Dye angle we are looking for. He has won at sawgrass, a top 20 at Crooked stick, twice inside the top 30 at River Highlands, and four rounds together at Louisiana. He has played the Stadium course here magnificently and rates one of the better each way options of the week.

1pt each-way Si Woo Kim 80/1 (1/5 6)

Si Woo Kim - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

With 11 made cuts on the trot JOAQUIN NIEMANN (best price 66-1) is an interesting runner on his debut in the Desert. He may prove to a better player on the more tougher courses but at 80/1 he just has to be backed here. The Chilean impressed on his first full season on tour in 2018 by posting 5 top ten finishes. That is an impressive return from a 20 year old rookie and with the dust shook off that first year we can look to him to get into the winners enclosure at some stage this season. There isn't an overly strong case to suggest he may come out of the blocks quick but with 11/11 from his last batch of events is a lovely run. Could easily outplay his big price.

1pt each-way J.Niemann 66/1 (1/5 7)

Joaquin Niemann - 1pt e/w @ 66/1

With 11 cuts from 15 in the previously mentioned courses in my thinking this week CHRIS KIRK (best price 125-1) looks worth a few pennies at triple figure prices. He lead at Sawgrass after 54 holes in 2015 only to succumb to the pressure of the big event but nevertheless has posted two top 15 finishes there. 10th at the BMW in 2016 is another performance worthy of note. Marry that with a 7th placed spot here in 2011 nad we have a decent outsider. Missing the cut last week again is of little concern but he's one of the ones I want on side this week.

0.75pt each-way C.Kirk 125/1 (1/5 7)

Chris Kirk - 0.75pts e/w @ 125/1