Six of the best from Niall Lyons as he gets stuck into the Torrey Pines event.
The North and South courses at Torrey Pines are where Tiger Woods kicks off his 2019 campaign on Thursday and the golfing public will be keen to see how he fares in his first full field event in quite a while. He loves Torrey of course with a basket of wins and who can forget his one legged show at the US Open here in 2008 where he beat Rocco Mediate in arguably the closest fought major ever.
A growing trend here has been noted on golf twitterland that the last bunch of winners have all started on the South Course on day one. It is important to keep this in mind when choosing a winner and it is part of the reason I have waited until later in the week before making a decision. The best performers here down the last few years have all been swash buckling belters of the golf ball and mostly high calibre golfers. Day and Snedeker are two recent multiple winners of this event and plenty play well here regularly enough to make course form an obvious pointer. Glen Abbey is the big pointer course wise with Rahm, Vegas, Day, Watson, Snedeker and Tiger all showing form on both tracks.
Rahm rates around the 10/1 mark currently and looks to have every chance of repeating his success of two years ago. He is the one to beat and I can understand why he is a popular choice this week. It could be an ounce of value and I was totally 50/50 whether I'd back him this week but I've chosen not to. I can't give an explanation as to why, there is barely a negative to his name right now and he was solid enough last week also. He can win anywhere and this poses a very decent opportunity for the Spaniard to land another blow. Justin Rose continues with his new golf cues (as my wife recently called them!) and I'd happily swerve him until he shows some decent form. At a tough test such as this he could come under pressure and we'll see a bit more evidence of how smooth that transition has been.
PATRICK CANTLAY (best price 25-1) gets my vote as the best bet towards the top of the market. His first outing of the year last week was smooth sailing and he probably would have been a bet last week only for the doubt about how fast he would jump from the stalls. It was an impressive performance and the birdie fest probably doesn't suit his main strengths. He should be much more at home here and despite not having a lot of experience in contention here he should pose a fair threat. He plays these classical golf courses well and the poa annua greens suit being one of the better performers on the tour on this surface.
He also has the plum early South Course draw. His run of figures (9-5-2-7-17-21-55-24-8-27-6-12-15-4) stretching back to his last missed cut is ominous to say the least and although I think he has been generally under priced during this period his performance last week suggests he is ready to win again.
2pts WIN Patrick Cantlay 25/1
ABRAHAM ANCER (best price 55-1) isn't doing an awful lot wrong these days and although he isn't as big a name as you'd expect to win this title he has all the tools to go well. He blitzed a very decent field in the Australian Open to win by 5 shots in November and far from disgraced himself since with a top 30 in Hawaii and a top 20 last week at La Quinta. The 27 year old is rising the rankings at a speedy rate having been just inside the worlds top 300 this time last year to now sitting 58th in the world before teeing it up at Torrey. There were signs the win in Australia was on the cards with top 5s at the Quicken Loans, Canada (good pointer for this week) and the Shriners. It has been an impressive rise by Ancer and I expect him to continue on his merry way.
1.5pts each-way A.Ancer 55/1 (1/5 8)
PATRICK REED (best price 40-1) is one who doesn't hold that plum draw but will have an early start on the South course on day two which isn't all so bad. Reed likes these greens and can hopefully build upon the solid top 15 finish at the Sony. He can tame this beast with a powerful long game but equally impressive short game which is always necessary around here to score well. Nothing special course wise at Torrey but does have a top ten at Glen Abbey in his only outing there. Drifitng to a nice price on the exchanges also.
1pt each-way P.Reed 40/1 (1/5 8)
KEEGAN BRADLEY (best price 45-1) is another who ticks plenty of boxes and I can't help but feel he is an ounce of value this week given he was only around a 66/1 poke last year. He currently sits at 65 on the exchanges and given he has two top 5s here in the past two years he must arrive at Torrey with high expectations. The last few weeks have respectable enough and having won only 7 starts ago arrives here in 2019 a much more improved golfer than he was the past two seasons. This must result in a higher chance of winning and with some of the big names not making the trip he must be on our staking plan. 4th and 14th at Glen Abbey in two appearances is another angle to boost our case.
1pt each-way K.Bradley 45/1 (1/5 8)
JIMMY WALKER (best price 110-1) may be worth chancing on a happy hunting ground. From 2012 to 2016 at Torrey he had one missed cut sandwiched in between four top ten finishes. As we've seen course form here holds up quite well and Jimmy could be one of the big names from further down the betting to spring a surprise. Although touted for a Major win in the last decade his PGA victory in 2016 came a bit out of the blue. 8 of his last 10 rounds posted on the tour have been in the 60s so he couldn't be far off some of the form that lead to impressive finishes here. As I've said we're looking for big names in the sport and Jimmy is one who fits the bill at three figures.
0.75pt each-way J.Walker 110/1 (1/5 8)
Finally I'll have a small bet on CHARLEY HOFFMAN (best price 175-1) to make the frame here. He has two top 10 finishes at Torrey Pines and only missed one of his last seven cuts here. He isn't one to get overly excited about and investing in him down the years has proved fruitless for many but this represents one of his better opportunities. Hopefully, some rust was shaken off in the desert last week and Charley can score a better than average here on a tougher track.
His game suits the tougher courses as is evident with top 3s at Firestone and the Arnold Palmer. Shorter hitters have tasted success here with Snedeker and Crane so he can't be ruled out on that score. Runner up and a further top 10 in Canada is further evidence he may be a shade overpriced around the 150/1 mark. Others I considered were CT Pan, Luke List, Matsuyama and Grillo. Leishman and Finau look primed for an assault for this title also and rate better bets for me than the top 3 in the market.
0.75pt each-way C.Hoffman 150/1 (1/5 8)
