
Four plays for Niall Lyons in Saudi Arabia including a 500/1 poke.
Four of the worlds best put political issues aside and open up their pockets to appear in the inaugural Saudi International. The less said about the politics the better and I'll concentrate on who I think can win this event and earn us a paltry few pennies compared to what the top 4 receive for turning up. The course is a coastal track with a handful of water hazards which if the wind blows will test the pros. That being said not a lot of wind is forecast but the desert / coastal style track conjures up some memories of similar tracks down the years which we will use for reference when choosing our bets. Oman and Sicily are two courses I will look to for similar tests and I'll also have one eye on previous results at the Shenzhen where they use the same grass.
A year ago it would have been hard to envisage Bryson Decheambeau going off shorter than Rose, Dustin and Koepka in any event but we are in unprecedented times for the science man and it is understandable why he slots in as favourite. I think conditions will be slightly more tough than last week and although good scoring is expected I think Bryson will face more of a test with a course he isn't used to. Of the others I wonder if any will be keen to get a quick getaway with the controversy surrounding the event and with Pebble Beach and the Genesis on the horizon some may have their focus on the following few weeks.
The Verdura course in Sicily is one I look to this week as both places look similar to the eye. Thorbjorn Olesen won there back in 2012 and looks set to contend here after a solid 7th placed finish last week in the Dubai Desert. A further 3rd placed finish in the Dubai Desert and a 2nd and 3rd posted in the Qatar Masters this type of golf is right up his street. A 1st and 2nd at the Dunhill Links is another example of how well Olesen copes with coastal, windy tracks. Two top tens in Shenzhen is another plus as they use the same Paspalum grass there as we'll see this week. I was surprised to see him chalked up such a price this week and although he has already been backed I think the 28/1 is a tasty each-way bet this week.
2pts each-way T.Olesen 28/1 (1/5 6)
Joost Luiten kicked off the year in fine fashion by posting a 3rd placed finish in Abu Dhabi. Last week was a bit of a disappointment missing the cut in Dubai but I will take the chance on him that he bounces back this week on a course that should suit. He won in Oman last year not too far away from this weeks venue and both courses will have similar tests no doubt. A runner up finish at Shenzhen is another boost to our argument and although he is another who has been backed the 40/1 still looks tasty enough for me to grab.
1.5pts each-way J.Luiten 40/1 (1/5 6)
Lorenzo Vera has still to get off the mark on the European Tour and in a field of this calibre he could be easily dismissed by many. Nevertheless he showed some decent form in the middle part of last year, most notably for us with a runner up finish to Lagergren in Sicily. A 3rd in Crans and a previous 3rd at Paris National shows us he can show up in some of the better fields. He is one who can keep it accurate from tee to green here which I think will be essential and is worth chancing at 150/1.
0.75pt each-way M.Lorenzo-Vera 150/1 (1/5 7)
Finally, it broke my heart to see Lagergren win in Sicily last year with me not on. I remember the week well and I ended up just not having the time to preview the event and ended up regretting it. Lagergren is always one I turn to on seaside or links tracks and I can't let this week pass by without having a small bet on him. I expected to see 250/1 or thereabouts without looking at the field too much. I was surprised to see 600/1 and 500/1 general out there. Then I looked at his past two weeks. Abysmal. Stone last in the Dubai Desert, and only an amateur wa sbehind him in Abu Dhabi. His game has obviously went to absolute pot and this is money down the drain. I will keep the bet to a minimum. One of the perils of being a punter, sometimes you just got to do something you know is an awful decision!
0.25pt each-way J.Lagergren 500/1 (1/5 7)













