Over in Florida, Niall Lyons has five picks at the Copperhead course - Including a first-round leader pick!
We stay in Florida on the PGA Tour for the Valspar and the tricky Copperhead course at Innisbrook. Paul Casey battled his way to victory through the back door here last year in a score of 10 under. It is not a course which can be overpowered and the tournament jolly Dustin Johnson missed the cut here in his only appearance to date. Casey joined the likes of Furyk, Hadwin, Spieth, Sendedn Donald and O'Hair in winning this event with a neat and tidy long game and not bashing drivers as far as they possibly could. It takes a different approach here and may see the likes of Johnson and Rahm fail to dominate to their usual standard.
The John Deere Classic is an event to look to with many having won both events including Spieth, O'Hair, Singh and Senden. The Sony Open and Mayakoba are another two tournaments I'll keep in mind when selecting my punting army.
JOEL DAHMEN (best price 150-1) sits at a big number this week and is crying out to be backed. The 31 year old has managed a couple of wins on the Canadian Tour but yet to take the applause in the winners enclosure on the bigger stage as of yet. 12th last week at Sawgrass was a huge effort and coupled with the a top ten at Torrey Pines earlier in the year suggests he plays these tougher layouts best.
A top 25 at the Sony and a made cut in Mayakoba is another positive. Most importantly of all he finished 2nd behind runaway winner Michael Kim at the John Deere last Autumn. We know that form translates well and that runner up was preceded by a 5th at the Greenbrier which suggests the 12th last week at Sawgrass is no flash in the pan. He tees off early on Thursday and has the best of the greens before they get bobbly so I'll be having a small each-way bet in the FIRST ROUND LEADER (best price 100-1) market also.
1pt each-way J.Dahmen 150/1 (1/5 7)
RUSSEL KNOX (best price 66-1) didn't disgrace himself last week at Sawgrass having briefly held the lead at one stage on Friday evening before bogeying his final two holes. That put him behind the 8 ball and he limped home to a 35th placed finish. Last year he posted a top 20 here at Copperhead and given the run of form he is on right now I think he is worth playing once again this week. He fits the bill as a potential winner here as someone who keeps the ball in play on the tougher layouts, and a play off defeat in Mexico backs that theory.
1pt each-way R.Knox 66/1 (1/5 7)
KEVIN KISNER (best price 50-1) ultimately disappointed last week at Sawgrass having got himself into a decent position. Nevertheless he hasn't been outside the top 30 in five events on the trot now and sits on that coveted 50th place in the world. He will be keen to move up the rankings with all the trimmings that come with staying inside that worlds top 50 and Copperhead should be a place where he can score. His two appearances here have been poor all truth be told but I like the way he is playing coming to a course that should really suit when he's on his game. He has a decent record on bermuda surfaces and I think he's slightly overpriced here.
1pt each-way K.Kisner 45/1 (1/5 8)
BRANDEN GRACE (best price 80-1) can be an inconsistent sort but around the venues that suit his neat long game and super ball striking he is worth taking into consideration. He went all so close for us at the Phoenix at three figure prices then began to go off silly short for a number of weeks. This week we see 66/1 and bigger for him which looks tasty enough to nibble at. He finished 8th here last year which looks a necessity as so many previous winners have another top ten finish here in other years. The South African hasn't pulled up any sycamores since his runner up in Phoenix but the Copperhead course may just play into his hands and at 66/1 for someone inside the top 50 in the world it can't be a bad bet.
1pt each-way B.Grace 70/1 (1/5 7)
