The PGA National is part of a blanced diet of PGA Tour action every year and is always a welcome event on the rota for punters. There are various angles that have proven profitable over time and with any luck we'll be on the right side of the argument come Sunday evening. The course historically doesn't favour shorter or longer hitters although as ever these days preference seems to be with those who banish it further off the tee. A few calm days await tournament play but a couple of days with more testing conditions are also on the cards and this should see this Honda event play out like many others down the years. Very few reach double figures at this event and it's a solid test from start to finish (especially the finish). East coast form is always a pointer here as well as those tracks that are exposed to the wind, specifically Waialae. Fowler, Scott, Harrington, McIlroy, Ernie, Hamilton, Leonard and O'Meara have all won this event and have great Open Championship records so it is necessary to look to those with solid links form also.

Fleetwood fits that bill having finished second in last years Open and has all the credentials to play well here. 4th here in 2018 shows a liking for the place also. However, he is still winless in the States and I remain unconvinced that is going to change any time soon. I could be wrong of course, but regardless the top price of 12/1 is of very little interest. I'd much rather invest in Koepka who can't be too far away and has been underestimated before returning from injury. I'd prefer a few points bigger though and he can be relatively easy passed up at 12/1 also.

Undoubtedly the bet of the week is Luke List (100-1 / 6 Places). He has managed three very solid performances at big events lately with 36th at the Farmers, 25th at Phoenix and 30th at the Genesis. Justin Thomas beat him here in a playoff in 2018 and he also has a top ten finish back in 2016. 6th the PGA at Bethpage last year and 3rd at the Heritage two years ago certainly suggests he leaves his best golf until the East coast. A Korn Ferry win in Georgia, two top tens at Bayhill and a 9th place at Quail Hollow are more evidence he is best suited by golf on the East. If this plays out this week and he manages another level to what he has produced the last few weeks then you'd expect him to contend on a course he has shown a strong affiliation for before. The links box is also ticked with a 3rd place at Dundonald in Scotland. I expected no bigger than 50/1 this week so the top price of 100/1 is extremely interesting as well as anything down to 66s. Not quite on the English scale, but he's the most exciting outsider I've backed since.

3pts each-way L.List 100/1 (1/5 6 places)

Luke List - 3pts e/w @ 100/1

Lucas Glover has a wealth of East coast form in his locker and is worth keeping an eye on in the next few weeks but he is passed over this week simply because of his lacklustre showing in Mexico last week. Daniel Berger is another trending in the right direction and I could easily see him make his mark. At 33/1 though it is slightly underwhelming. Instead I'll opt for Open Champ Shane Lowry (35-1 / 8 places). He didn't do anything special after the Open last year and no doubt was a busy man so we can grant him some grace. 2020 has started off in fine fashion with 2nd in Hong Kong followed to two top 15 finishes in Dubai and Saudi. 29th in Mexico was average enough but he should be suited by the test here in Florida. Lowry could his name to a long list of Open Champions who have won this event and the few tricky days of wind forecast should be right up his street. He can stray off the tee now and again but accuracy hasn't been a prerequisite to winning here before. Like many Irishmen over the years he has somewhat overachieved without doing him a disservice and I expect that to continue. One of the best short games around is perfect for PGA National and if his irons are dialled in he could go very close.

1.5pts each-way S.Lowry 35/1 (1/5 8 places)

Shane Lowry - 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1

Emiliano Grillo is an interesting sort coming off his third placed finish last week.Ultimately he was disappointing though in a weak field dropping shots at crucial times. I still believe he is underpriced most weeks although could figure this week. I prefer Keegan Bradley (80-1 / 8 places) at slightly bigger odds. You often have to battle your way to victory here and forget about mistakes and sitting 28th in the bounceback category is certainly no negative. He is one you like in a dog fight and should he be in contention he won't fade easily. From 2012 through to 2014 he went 12-4-12 here but hasn't made much in roads since, mostly because he struggled after the anchoring ban was implemented. He has found a way though and managed a win again in 2018 BMW. Recent results are solid enough and it is worth noting his best of the season thus far is a 12th spot at the windy Sony. A runner up spot at Bayhill is another positive in the locker. I see a lot ahead of him in the market I'd have at bigger odds than him.

1pt each-way K.Bradley 80/1 (1/5 8 places)

Keegan Bradley - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Finally, Hudson Swafford (200-1 / 8 places) is worth a speculative play here I believe. There have been a chunk of high priced winners and placers in this event and Swafford is worth risking after his last performance. Lying 3rd heading into day four of Pheonix Swafford succumbed to a 74 eventually finishing 9th. That was the first time he had been in contention on a final day for a long time though. Interestingly his last top ten previous to that was over a year earlier at the Sony. Waialae is certainly an interesting angle also with Wilson, Henley, Els and Thomas all having won this event at the Sony in Hawaii. With a Korn Ferry win in Georgia and two top 11 finishes at Bayhill, Swafford may be better placed at events on this coast. If he gets back to anywhere near his best he could contend here and the performance last time out certainly holds a lot of positives.

0.75pt each-way H.Swafford 200/1 (1/5 8 places)

Hudson Swafford - 0.75pts e/w @ 225/1