Rory McIlroy goes in search of his second win here at the Bay Hill Club and he'd join an illustrious list including Tiger Woods and Oasis fanatic, Matt Every if he could oblige. He has barely put a foot wrong this season and once again it looks ominous for domination in the Fedex later in the year. Majors come first though, and Championships like this are among the best the players can win all season. Course form translates well with three course winners, McIlroy, Molinari and Leishman all posting a top ten here before landing a victory. No stat stands out on its own as the most important but hitting plenty of greens and strokes gained approach looks the way forward and the winner will more than likely be towards the top of that statistic. Rough was grown last year and no doubt contributed to it being more of a test off the tee.

Fleetwood slots in as an interesting second fav here after his wild shot on the 72nd last Sunday cost him a huge chance of a playoff with Sungjae Im. I don't agree with his caddie Ian Finnis defending their approach to attack the flag on the right hand side of that green. Anything within 50 feet left makes him heavily odds on to be a in a playoff which is all he could have hoped for despite being within range in two. If they were firing at that pin, I thought it was quite foolish. However, it was another close call and it may not be long before Fleetwood feeds some humble pie to Mr Azinger. Europeans and non Americans have a very healthy record in this event during the last decade but there's a few further down the list at bigger prices than interest me a shade more.

Matt Fitzpatrick was outdone here last year by a super final round 64 by Molinari eventually losing out by 2 shots. It's hard to avoid Fitzpatrick's penchant for certain courses and there's evidence his form carries year to year. He won the DP World Tour a year after finishing 4th there. Having finished 2nd in Cranis in 2015 he went onto win the 2017 and 2018 renewals there in the Swiss Mountains. He also has two top 3 finishes in Abu Dhabi. Clearly the Englishman puts some consideration into his schedule and it's no surprise he makes his 5th jaunt to Bayhill. This track rewards the game he's renowned for now of hitting fairways and greens and when he has a streaky week with the putter he is hard to live with. Despite a lively chance in Mexico he didn't quite live up to expectations but Bayhill seems to reward those who play worldwide golf nowadays and plenty of Europeans have had some kind of success here. His price is nothing special and I'd probably expected a shade bigger but a win stateside is inevitable at some point and with a runner up finish already posted here Bayhill looks like a fair opportunity.

1pt each-way M.Fitzpatrick 45/1 (1/5 7 places)

Matt Fitzpatrick - 1pt e/w @ 45/1

Collin Morikawa had all 17 cuts in his PGA starts so far and that is an incredible run for a rookie. Of course ha has already landed a win at the Barracuda so we know what he is capable of but Morikawa looks to be one of the most special golfers we've seen in a while. He finished 64th on debut here a couple of years ago which was his first start as a Pro on the tour. He hasn't looked back and has bags of talent. He now sits 52nd in the world and will be looking to cement his place in the top 50 and once he gets comfortably inside it I'd suggest it may be a decade or longer before he slips out. Not the longest off the tee I think he should be suited to this as length never usually appears to be an important aspect. Instead he is able to capitalise on his sparkling long game that has some saw him gain 1.7 GIR per round over the field in his last three events. He ranks 5th in Strokes Gained Approach this season also and I expected the bookies to be a few pts shorter.

1pt each-way C.Morikawa 50/1 (1/5 7 places)

Collin Morikawa - 1pt e/w @ 50/1

Billy Horschel has made 7 weekends on the spin here at Bayhill and despite never neve really coming close to winning must be on the radar this week. 20th and 13th in 2016 and 2017 are his best performances but with some recent good form in the bag he may be in position for his best bid at this title yet. Over his last 50 rounds Horschel ranks inside the top 10 in strokes gained putting which is a positive heading to these greens where the winners have almost always topped the putting stats. With a Tour Championship in the bank also he's not afraid to win an event of this calibre. It didn't go to plan last time out at the Honda but two top tens previously in Mexico and Arizona suggest he isn't too far away. He's a formidable character when he gets into contention at the weekend and 55/1 looks a fair price.

1pt each-way B.Horschel 55/1 (1/5 7 places)

Billy Horschel - 1pt e/w @ 55/1

Wyndham Clark has proven he is a classy operator lately and at 80/1 is too tempting to leave off the staking plan at Bayhill. First timers here are naturally up against it but we've some surprises here down the years and Clark looks talented enough to take a title soon enough. 34th in Phoenix was followed by top 20s at pebble and Riviera. Last week he finished just outside the top 10 and if he continues on this trend we'd be unlucky to be outside the 8 places. He is another holing putts for fun ranking 12th in SG putting this season. 8th at the CJ Cup last year showed us what he could do in stronger fields also. The impressive finishes are racking up and I'd expect him to go close or maybe win one this year so I'm happy to take a chance when he's trending in the right direction.

0.75pt each-way W.Clark 80/1 (1/5 8 places)

Wyndham Clark - 0.75pts e/w @ 80/1