Our golf expert has six tips for the WGC St Jude.
WGC St Jude
Field strength gets back towards its best once again as we take to TPC Southwind in Memphis for the second WGC renewal of this fine event. This course has always been a welcome one to my palate as we can usually narrow down the field a little to potential winners. We've always felt hitting fairways here is important to scoring over the week but with modern advances in club technology and stats available we've been able to glean that hitting fairways is far from the most important aspect around here. Ball striking is equally as important as many greens are missed here due to the challenging nature of their size and the difficult task from tee to green. What has been borne out in recent years is scrambling and putting tends to hold the key to winning here. Zoysia grass in the fairways promotes tougher control of approach shots meaning short games are inevtiably put under pressure. The Champion Bermuda surfaces are challenging and this is where we'll see this event won and lost over the final few days.
Everything points towards a Xander Schauffele charge this week and it's hard to ignore his credentials. Writing on Monday evening he has already been well supported in the market. Schauffele already has a 1-2-7 recorded at East Lake with the same Zoysia grass used there. Similarities don't end there either with a stern test from tee to green. Two runner ups at the Masters and Open as well as three top 6s at US Opens tell us all we need to know about the types of tests Schauffele enjoys. With wins at the Greenbrier and Sentry as well as a WGC win in China I can't help but feel his record isn't fully appreciated. Many will judge the best in the game for their wins and performance week in week out. I personally feel a major record thus far of Xander's far eclipses some of those ahead of him in the rankings, despite what they have achieved. What Xander has proved is that he can do it consistently on the toughest layouts and the biggest events for three years solid now. When the going gets tough, expect him to hang around and I believe even bigger rewards are on the horizon as he certainly has another level to step up yet. He is striking the ball tremendously well of late and even though his price is no doubt correct with the bookmakers, it's worth siding with him this week.
2pts each-way X.Schauffele 22/1 (1/5 7)
With a win at Sedgefield on these surfaces Garcia comes into the equation have played some tasty golf lately. I don't think he is too far away but there will be plenty of greens missed here and although this may be a decent surface for him, I still worry about the short game coming under too much pressure. Corey Conners is another worth noting. He is striking the ball superbly well but ranks more or less last in this field on and around the greens. Of course he has a runner up in Jackson on this surface so it's worth nothing an improvement could be on the cards. Over 3 years on from his last win it's time to invest a few quid on the man who sits framed on my office wall, Jordan Spieth. The most entertaining golfer of all time has shown signs that a return to the winners enclosure isn't far away. A tough, firm course that we got at the Memorial would have been lapped up by the old Spieth, and the 13th spot he gained there suggests he may be closer than what we think. Forgetting about Pebble this year (glorified pitch and putt event) you have to go back to the Byron Nelson in 2018 to find a better tee to green performance from the former Open Champ. Add to the mix that he has a win at East Lake and we have an interesting runner. Many will have one eye on next week, but it's likely Spieth will target this after that impressive run at Muirfield Village. 50/1 to find out? Yes please.
1.5pts each-way J.Spieth 66/1 (1/4 5)
Patrick Reed is always worth considering when you arrive at a venue where short game is important. Already a WGC winner this year in Mexico, he turned in another impressive performance last time out finishing 10th at the Memorial. Greens in Regulation numbers here are some of the lowest on tour and when greens are a certainty to be missed by the majority, Reed is one to capitalise. Add in the surface angle with a win at Sedgefield and a runner up at the PGA at Quail Hollow and he is another to tick plenty of the boxes. Ranked 8th in the world here arriving at Memphis, there are currently 16 golfers priced shorter than him in the market.
1pt each-way P.Reed 35/1 (1/5 7)
Fitzpatrick could reach new highs after that mighty performance at Muifield Village. The kind words uttered by Bones MacKay will only provide more confidence for the Englishman. I've said before I think he is a major winner in waiting. His price is reflective this week and I think I can easily let him win a WGC of this nature at those odds, unbacked. Instead I'll opt for another Englishman, Tommy Fleetwood. This is the first time we've seen Fitz shorter than Tommy for an event like this and I feel it is a little knee jerk to last weeks missed cut. Fleetwood couldn't have been too fussed by last weeks event but it was necessary preparation for the years first major. At the back end of last year he won the Nedbank and followed that up the next week by running Rahm as close as he possibly could in Dubai finishing runner up. This year started with a runner up spot in Abu Dhabi then 11th Dubai Desert, 18th Mexico, 3rd Honda Classic before MCs at Arnold Palmer and last week at the 3M. Generally speaking his form this past 6 months has been superb. He isn't quite at the top of the table of the game, but he isn't far off and only a few months ago we'd have seen him go off closer to half this price in an event like this. Fleetwood has the capability to produce a stunning week from tee to green and if he can manage that this week the 40/1 may look a silly price come the weekend.
1pt each-way T.Fleetwood 40/1 (1/5 7)
I'll finish off with two smaller staked larger prices. First up, Brandt Snedeker looks worth a pop around the 150/1 mark. He hasn't shown an awful lot over the last few weeks but we come to a track where short game will prove vital over the four days and Snedeker ticks that box. Some of his best putting performances have come on these surfaces gaining over 5 strokes twice on Champion Bermuda, during the Wyndham in 2015 and here in Memphis in 2018. Of his 38 rounds on this surface down the years only 13 of those have resulted in negative strokes gained. He is another with a win at East Lake and wins on the tougher tracks like Harbour Town and Torrey Pines. I can't help but feel he has a decent chance of performing better than those odds quoted. Finally after the talk of his heroics a year ago over the past week or two, Lowry may be inspired to produce some better stuff. He is suited by a tight, tough classic American track and quotes of 150/1 are a little over the top. He has one of the best short games around when on song, and should gain an advantage on the field in that department this week. Won this event at a different venue a Firestone so clearly has what it takes to win these elite events and looks a little overpriced.
0.5pt each-way B.Snedeker 150/1 (1/5 7)
0.5pt each-way S.Lowry 150/1 (1/5 7)
