Hero Open

The Forest of Arden makes a welcome return to the European Tour and the only shame is the quality of field to greet this renewal. Nevertheless we'll plough into the event in the search of a winner ahead of the years first major next week. Darren Clarke won here in his pomp twice whilst Thomas Bjorn was the last to lift a tour title at this venue. Maybe worth noting than 'Open' credentials could be a positive here. The back 9 features a much tougher stretch with penal rough for the wayward shot. Overall keeping it play seems like a pre-requisite to playing well here. With no stats from last week we have little to go on but I feel the win last week by Paratore means we'll probably see more tour winners playing well this week. I went with a host of maidens last week in the hope the return to golf meant these folk had more of a chance. I was wrong, and I'll look mainly to those who have gotten over the line from here on.

Rikard Karlberg came mighty close to winning at Wentworth in 2016 finishing 1 stroke behind Chris Wood and a return to a track that demands a good deal of accuracy should play into the Swedes hands. He won around a tight tree lined track in Italy for his only European Tour win. A second may not be far away with three solid efforts since the return of 34-24-26. The Swede plays his best golf at the tighter tracks and a top a ten in a Scottish Open is another positive. Given his form over the past few weeks 100/1 looks like a tasty offering. 

1.5pts each-way R.Karlberg  100/1  (1/5 7)

Rikard Karlberg - 1.5pts e/w @ 100/1

The Links pedigree of former winners and contenders at Forest of Arden is hard to ignore and Ross Fisher fits the bill better than most. We can forgive a missed cut last week upon a return to action but earlier in the year he was playing some of his best stuff in a fair while. Top tens were posted in Abu Dhabi, Saudi and Oman. He has two tour wins in England as well as an Irish Open win across the water. The KLM he won in 2007 has long had links connotations also. Add in three runner up finishes at the Dunhill Links and we have a perfect combination for a title tilt this week. Price is right after last weeks missed cut, but the venue should suit.

1pt each-way R.Fisher  40/1  (1/5 7)

Ross Fisher - 1pt e/w @ 40/1

Benjamin Hebert has been a nearly man on tour with four runner up finishes in the last couple of years. He somehow managed to get beat by Wiesberger in a playoff for the Scottish in 2019 having looked like the winner on a handful of occasions. Later that year he produced probably a better performance in a stronger field to be beaten in another playoff, this time losing out to Hatton in Turkey. His Challenge Tour win in England in 2011 is a positive as is a host of links results. As well as the Scottish Open runner up he has a top 5 in the Dunhill Links as well as a top 10 at Portstewart. He hasn't managed a win yet, but has done everything but. His time could be now to capitalise as he has shown his credentials in better fields than this. 

1pt each-way B.Hebert 40/1  (1/5 6)

Benjamin Hebert - 1pt e/w @ 40/1

I'll stick with the Links theme in Brandon Stone. He is another who on his day can produce golf to challenge the best on this tour. Two runner up finishes in the last 12 months show he isn't far away from landing his fourth European Title. Only 4 players ahead of him in the market have won more times on tour than the South African so he sits out like a sore thumb in an event like this. 66/1 is simply too big and I can't have the handful of maidens in front of him in the market. He has the win on Scottish links which is a huge positive and I'd be surprised if the winner on Sunday doesn't have some links form to his name.

1pt each-way B.Stone  66/1  (1/5 7)

Brandon Stone - 1pt e/w @ 66/1

Min Woo Lee looks worth chancing at 80/1. It was only 4 events ago when the Aussie won the Vic Open in challenging conditions. Granted that was a much weaker field but he is a highly talented individual who has nowhere near reached his potential yet. The same could have maybe been said for Paratore also as he delivered the goods last week. His performance in last years Saudi, finishing 4th behind Dustin Johnson would be enough to win an event like this if repeated. Plenty ahead of him in the market won't win as much as this kid will win in his career so it's a no brainer add for me. 

0.75pt each-way Min Woo Lee  80/1  (1/5 7)

Min Woo Lee - 0.75pts e/w @ 80/1