Portugal Masters

The Victoria Golf Course in Vilamoura has provided plenty of drama since hosting this event in 2007 and has become a great event for the punter. The course has been slightly toughened the past few years with higher rough but scores in the high teens under par will still be needed to contend on Sunday. Fairways are wide enough to give the bombers an advantage but it is fair to say they haven't always grabbed the opportunity with plenty of more strategic golfers winning here. Greens in Regulation is key here to the win. Those who contend at the top end gain most strokes on the field by hitting the greens regularly. That task may be more difficult this year with talk of much higher rough, but often that gets overplayed. It is interesting to note seven wins out of 13 have been for English men, and another couple for the Irish. Wind has often played its part here so potentially those from the UK and Ire have had an advantage. 

Adrien Saddier has gained 5.7% GIR versus the field this season and certainly looks overpriced at the three figure mark. In two appearances here in Vilamoura he has finished 4th and 16th with rounds of 67-68-68-66-66-66-69-70. He has featured high on the leaderboard throughout the last two renewals and must be considered given his form this year. A made cut last time out at Valderrama is no negative given the stern test, with 18th being his best finish since the return to action in the Austrian Open. It was his performances earlier in the season that caught the eye with 3rd in the Oman Open missing out by a shot and 12th in Qatar where it blew over the weekend. He finished 12th in Madeira in 2014 so there are plenty of positives for the Frenchman who looks one of the better 3 figure bets I've seen in a while.

1.5pts each-way A.Saddier  100/1  (1/5 7 places)

Adrien Saddier - 1.5pts e/w @ 100/1

I'll take the chance on Thorbjorn Olesen once again his week. Six made cuts on the trot here suggests he knows how to make his way around the Victoria track and an ounce more desire than the previous few years could make a difference. We know Olesen loves playing in the breeze and with two Open winners having won here in Portugal he could bring that speciality to Vilamoura. When plenty of birdies are on offer it is important to note Olesen as his putter can get very hot. Similar to Coetzee, the South African's putter can be a potent weapon on weeks like this. Olesen is almost three times the price of Coetzee though and looks to be the more prudent play. A winner in Sicily which also holds links to this event.

1.25pts each-way T.Olesen  40/1  (1/5 6 places)

Thorbjorn Olesen - 1.25pts e/w @ 40/1

Will Besseling was 5th last week in GIR at Valderrama and comfortably tops that stat on tour this season. Granted we've only had one tournament of stats since the return but the Dutchman hits greens for fun. He has three top 3 finishes on the tour in the last 10 months which represents as good as many above him in the market. He has been about a long time without a win but is finally realising some potential. If a win is to come it will probably come soon and where better to play him than on a course where hitting greens is paramount. He finished 3rd in Madeira in 2009 which was a full European Tour event back then. 11th at the Celtic Classic a few weeks back and 3rd at Valderrama is a super run of results and his time could be now.

1pt each-way W.Besseling 60/1  (1/4 5 place)

Will Besseling - 1pt e/w @ 60/1

I'm keen to have an Englishman on board and Matthew Jordan fits the bill here. Before the break he was playing well with a top 20 in Oman and 28th in Qatar. Top 20s followed after the break at the British Masters and UK Championship as well an impressive run at the Wales Open finishing 3rd. He coped with Valderrama also and can be expected to perform much better here in Portugal. Finished 5th at the Dunhill Links last year which is another positive. 55/1 is about right but he'll be in my staking plan regardless.

1pt each-way M.Jordan  50/1  (1/5 7 places)

Matthew Jordan - 1pt e/w @ 50/1

I'll finish off with two bigger priced selections. First up Max Kieffer who can't be dismissed easily after his last few weeks. A run of 6-MC-14-44-17 is as consistent as the German has been for a few years. He hits enough greens with regularity to contend here and finished 2nd in Oman last year, an event I'm looking to for some comparisons. 80/1 more than fair. Finally I'll take a chance on Adrian Meronk. The Polish star has a couple of fine performances of late with 21st at the British Masters and 6th at the Celtic Classic. He returns to Portugal, the scene of his sole Challenge Tour win and we may just see him realise some more of that potential. 

0.75pt each-way M.Kieffer  90/1  (1/4 5 places)
0.75pt each-way  A.Meronk  100/1  (1/5 7 places)

Max Kieffer - 0.75pts e/w @ 90/1
Adrian Monk - 0.75pts e/w @ 100/1