Italian Open Winner

  • Golf expert Niall Lyons has four tips for the Italian Open, including one priced at 350/1.
  • The Italian Open will take place at Chervo Golf Club, between Thursday 22nd and Sunday 25th October.
  • Matt Wallace is currently the favourite to win the Italian Open, at a best price of 10/1.

A short jaunt from the edge of the magnificent Lake Garda is the destination for the European Tour this week as we head to the Chervo Golf Club. We have little to go on with this course but it looks like it should play relatively easy with a flat, exposed track ripe for birdies. It's lengthy at 7400+ yards so you'd have to think the bombers will have an advantage with no doubt softer conditions than what we usually see for the Italian Open. Matt Wallace heads the market after a remarkable collapse when holding a comfortable lead in Scotland last week and it serves as a reminder that no matter the gulf in class between the top of the game and the next bracket, when you haven't won in a while it is never easy to convert.

JB Hansen at 60/1 (5 places)

JB Hansen was hugely impressive a couple of weeks back at Wentworth and looks a decent price to contend this week in a much weaker field. Nobody below him in the world rankings finished above him that week with a host of quality golfers making up the top 6. He carved his way into the final group on Sunday with a solid all round game ranking inside the top 40 in strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green and putting. All aspects were firing and he should take a lot of confidence to Italy in search of his maiden European title. A top 20 at Valderrama was another sign the Dane is in fine shape on the tougher tracks. I'd make him closer to 33s so the price out there is juicy enough for me to take.

2pts each-way JB Hansen 60/1 (1/4 5 places)

JB Hansen - 2pts e/w @ 60/1

Adri Arnaus at 35/1 (6 places)

Adri Arnaus gives it a fair whack off the tee and the opportunity for birdies here should give him the chance to ride momentum and potentially challenge for his first title. Three runner up finishes last year suggested he wasn't going to need to wait too long for that victory, but things have somewhat stalled since. His play the last few months has been solid but without much to shout about. A former double winner on the Alps tour he will be used to resort golf such as this and could thrive on a week where question marks surround a couple of the market leaders. 

2pts each-way A. Arnaus 35/1 (1/5 6 places)

Adri Arnaus - 2pts e/w @ 35/1

Chris Paisley at 55/1 (5 places)

Chris Paisley didn't do an awful lot wrong last week in Scotland and should take to this track in Italy given how he played last week. All aspects of his game were in fine working order and although it can be dangerous to follow someone in again who had a great putting week, I think Paisley is overpriced to re-produce something similar. He has placed five times in his last 20 events and we're getting roughly 10/1 on our place part that he does it again here. He is likely to kick on from that performance last week as he did back in 2018 when he posted two top 5 finishes straight after winning the SA Open. Another who is slightly overpriced.

1.5pts each-way C. Paisley 55/1 (1/4 5 places)

Chris Paisley - 1.5pts e/w @ 55/1

Nicolai Hojgaard at 350/1 (6 places)

Nicolai Hojgaard has spent the last 12 months in the shadow of his highly talented brother, however I wouldn't rule out the Dane showing us what he is capable of soon enough. The KLM last September was a glimpse of what he can do when he was narrowly edged out by Garcia. He blasted the ball into submission that week and if the course plays into the hands of the bombers as I think it will the Dane may just find some form. The playing field will be levelled somewhat on a flat track such as this and some bigger price runners may make the places. Hojgaard has endured a tough time of late but retains the talent to do something special on a track set up for birdies.

0.75pt each-way N. Hojgaard 350/1 (1/5 6 places)

Nicolai Hojgaard - 0.75pts e/w @ 350/1