Bermuda Championship Winner

Port Royal Golf course retains hosting duties for the second renewal of the Bermuda Championship. The course is one of the shortest used on the circuit at just over 6800 yards and presents a fiddly examination where hitting fairways is an advantage but not overly so. Stray far and you'll find trouble but for the most part the course is playable from the rough and the main defence are the bunkers around the greens. Scores of upwards of 20 under par look inevitable despite some windy conditions throughout the event.

Russell Knox at 50/1 (8 places)

Russell Knox stands out as the feature bet for the week and 50/1 looks decent value. The Scot is up there behind only a handful in the most decorated players in the field. He has the exact profile I'm looking for here at Bermuda. Coastal track wins include the Travelers at River Highlands and the Irish Open at Ballyliffin. Runner up finishes at Harbour Town and at the Honda backs up the though that Knox is very comfortable on seaside tracks, and those which present problems with the wind. A runner up and 3rd placed finish at El Camaleon is another sign he should be right at home here. Elevation changes and isolated tee boxes are a part of the challenge here and he faced plenty of those when winning at Ballyliffin. He ranked inside the top 40 last season in Sand Saves on the tour and finished inside the top ten three starts ago at the Safeway. He shot 4 rounds in the 60s here last year and rates the best value bet in the field for me.

2.5pts each-way R. Knox 50/1 (1/5 8 places)

Russell Knox - 2.5pts e/w @ 50/1

Scott Stallings at 50/1 (8 places)

I've backed Scott Stallings a couple of times over the past year or so with an eye to his results improving due to his healthier diet and approach. It hasn't quite played out but with two top 6 finishes in his last 6 events he is worth chancing here in this weaker field. He plays those long par 3s will which you'll need to this week and has produced plenty of decent results on courses less than 7200 yards. Add to this a 6th placed finish at the Travalers a few months ago and we have someone clearly on the cusp of winning an event. This represents a solid opportunity for Stallings and he is a proven performer at the business end of events. I hoped for a slightly bigger price but I'll be backing regardless. 

1.5pts each-way S. Stallings 50/1 (1/5 8 places)

Scott Stallings - 1.5pts e/w @ 50/1

Henrik Stenson at 40/1 (7 places)

Of the bigger names Henrik Stenson stands out as one who could potentially make hay here. The Swede is a difficult one to judge in these lower grade events but now that he sits outside the top 50 in the world for the first time in 8 years we may see a reaction. He doesn't go to Bermuda without wanting to make an impact and for someone who has played well in some of the windiest conditions down the years he must be a contender. Zalatoris around 10s and Stenson around 40s doesn't look right on paper, and I believe it's slightly askew. Stenson is far from done and it is less than a year ago since he won the Hero World Challenge with the best players in the world. I think he wins this comfortable at 40 attempts, worth a pop.

1.5pts each-way H. Stenson 40/1 (1/5 7 places)

Henrik Stenson - 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1

Brian Stuard at 80/1 (5 places)

Brian Stuard has played very well in parts this year and could spring into action on a track that will suit. Once again he fits the course fit narrative with a win at Zurich, Two runner up finishes at El Camaleon, three top 5s at Waialae and top 5s at the Heritage and Humana. 3 of the par 3s here play over 200 yards, with two of them measuring 235 yards. Last year those par 3s played an instrumental part in differentiating the top 5s from the rest. Stuard plays these holes statistically well and has a 3rd placed finish at the Safeway only four starts ago.

1pt each-way B. Stuard 80/1 (1/4 5 places)

Brian Stuard - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Matt Jones at 70/1 (8 places)

Matt Jones is another worth supporting at 70/1 this week. The Australian prefers a shorter track and can hopefully make enough birdies to contend here this week. His last win came back in 2014 at the Houston Open and he may just gain momentum into that event next week. His best result this year was 5th at Pebble, and a top 15 a few starts ago in Punta Cana tells us he can score on these coastal tracks. He ranked inside the top 20 in sand saves last year and should relish this shorter track. With two Aussie Open wins he has shown he can handle the wind in warmer conditions also. 

1pt each-way M. Jones 70/1 (1/5 8 places)

Matt Jones - 1pt e/w @ 70/1

Bo Hoag at 150/1 (7 places)

Vaughn Taylor is on a rotten run of seven missed cuts on the trot but I wouldn't be surprised should he bounce back on a track that suits. The bad run is enough to put me off chancing it though and I'll opt for someone with slightly better form lately in Bo Hoag. The Ohio native has missed his last three cuts but previous to that managed a top 30 at the Wyndham and 12th at the 3M Open. It's worth noting that two of his best performances on the tour came here (11th), Waialae (9th) and El Camaleon (20th). It's a risky one, but it's a birdie fest and should play into his hands. Stewart Cink and Pat Perez were the other two who came very close to making the staking plan this week.

0.75pt each-way B. Hoag 150/1 (1/5 7 places)

Bo Hoag - 0.75pts e/w @ 150/1