DP World Tour Championship

It will be time to recharge those batteries after this week with a three weak break before we start thinking of the Hawaii swing in January. This week we have a somewhat disappointing field show up for the season finale in Dubai with McIlroy, Rose and Rahm among those who opt out. Morikawa and Reed add some value from the other side of the Atlantic and we are sure to have an interesting four days on the second week of this Dubai swing. The Earth course has always favoured longer hitters although recent winners Willett and Fitzpatrick wouldn't exactly fit into that category. The course has become slightly tougher off the tee in recent years and maybe those two wins by more accurate types is a sign of the tide turning ever so slightly here. Only 2 of the last 7 winners had an SP higher of 12/1 here so it pays to look towards the top of the market with maybe one eye towards classier sorts in the middle of the pack.

Sungjae Im at 18/1

Given the amount of winners here towards the top of the market in recent years I'm keen to have one on side and my preference at the prices is for Sungjae Im. Morikawa remains at a backable price I'd suggest and could really take to the layout where his razor like irons should give him an advantage over the rest. Sungjae's recent form just shades it for me though.The Korean is now inside the top 20 in the world, ahead of an out of form Fitzpatrick who sits 4 pts shorter in the betting. Sungjae is simply one of the best prospects in world golf and he should out perform those stars from the same part of the world who have gone before him. He won the Honda earlier in the year in fine style and his results so far suggest Bermuda is by far his favourite surface. Missed cut at the RSM was to be expected as many have fallen the week after contending at the Masters. His runner up finish at Augusta was a huge showing and again another sign he is now a contender at the top of the game. Winners here Westwood, McIlroy, Rahm, Willett and Fitzpatrick all have a liking for Augusta and similarities may be extracted that you need a good long game here to succeed around the Earth Course. If he can bounce back after the missed cut at the RSM, he should take to this track and a win on debut is far from beyond him.

2.5pts WIN S.Im  18/1

Sungjae Im - 2.5pts @ 18/1

Bernd Wiesberger at 28/1 (7 Places)

Bernd Wiesberger arrived here at 28/1 last year when leading the Race to Dubai before the final event. That time he had McIlroy and Rahm to contend with. Without those powerhouses he tees it up this year at the same price and coming here on the back of a 4th place at the RSM and a top 10 last week at the Fire Course. He ranked second in strokes gained off the tee at Sea Island and 12th last week in Dubai. His power game off the tee should be a huge asset here and he can overcome a slightly sketchy record in the desert after his performance last week. He made the cut in all three majors late in the year and I can't help but feel his momentum was stopped somewhat by the period of no golf. He has picked up the baton again though and looks in similar form to what propelled him to three wins in 2019. What he does with the putter will probably be the deciding factor but I think he should be nearer the 20/1 mark given his form in the lead in.

2pts each-way B.Wiesberger  28/1  (1/5 7)

Bernd Wiesberger - 2pts e/w @ 28/1

Tom Lewis at 80/1 (5 Places)

Tom Lewis won't be for everyone here as his form in the run up to this event is very average but I think he is worth chancing for a number of reasons. First of all his best performance of the year came on Bermuda greens at the WGC in St Jude. In the last 18 months he has two top 3 finishes in the desert in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. He already has a 'tour championship' in his locker when he won the Korn Ferry renewal in 2019 in impressive fashion. Add to that two top 7 finishes here in 2 starts and we have the perfect recipe for a contender. His 11th place in the 2019 Open Championship was preceded by a poor run of results (43-61-MC-65-MC). He was 59th in the below standard Scandinavian Invitation the week before winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. He missed the cut in Abu Dhabi in 2020 before finishing 3rd the following week in the Dubai Desert. Therefore I wouldn't worry all too much about his recent missed cuts. He can pop up at any point and produce sparkling golf. Here looks like a likely place to do that and the 80/1 looks super.

1.5pts each-way T.Lewis  80/1  (1/4 5)

Tom Lewis - 1.5pts e/w @ 80/1

JB Hansen at 90/1 (7 Places)

Another who arrives here at the same price as last year is Erik Van Rooyen. He has the class to win here but the recent back injury slightly puts me off. With the same thing in mind though JB Hansen has to be chanced at 90/1. The Dane has produced some excellent performances of late most notably of course the win in Joburg. He followed that up with a top 20 finish at Leopard Creek also. He finished 7th at Wentworth where the field was almost the same strength as the one that arrives in Dubai this week. The truth is he has reached another level and could well be on the path to achieving much greater things in the game. To contend at Wentworth is a great feather in the cap and he has shown it was no fluke since. The market may not have a handle just yet on how good this lad is playing and looks one of the better bets down the field.

1.25pts each-way JB Hansen  90/1  (1/5 7)

JB Hansen - 1.25pts e/w @ 90/1