Sentry Tournament of Champions Tips & Preview: Course Guide, Tee Times & TV

The Sentry kicks off 2021 with those inside the top 30 in the Fedex rankings who hadn't won in 2020 given the opportunity to head to the first leg of the Hawaii swing. It has proven fruitful to look towards the top of the market here in recent years with no winner above 22/1 in the last nine renewals. Big hitting types have gone well previously here but with winners such as Stricker, Spieth and Zach Johnson in recent years it pays to dig a little deeper. Wind usually plays its part at this seaside track and contributed to higher scores last year. Calmer conditions await in 2021 and I'd sooner look back to the 2019 result for some pointers as opposed to 2020. Firmer conditions await here than in 2019 but wind will be less of a factor so scoring should be a fair bit easier than last year. Proximity to the hole with approach shots here is difficult for the entire field due to various combinations of yardage, elevation and size of greens. The average GIR proximity to the hole is around 8 or 9 feet more than the tour average so putting from 25 feet+ is a stat I'll look to as well as 3 putt avoidance. The most glaring statistic is GIR gained. In 2020 Xander ranked top that stat whilst finishing runner up. Thomas was 3rd when winning the event, and Cantlay 4th when finishing inside the top 5. Similar numbers appear over previous years and I think it is a guide to suggest those who gain on this stat are most likely to be those closer to the pins and therefore more opportunities. 

Bryson DeChambeau at 11/1

Plenty will be tempted by Dustin Johnson around the 6/1 mark with him being only half a pt bigger to win the Masters in a few months time. He has won this a couple of times and seemingly has no issues in shaking off the break between December and January. Bryson DeChambeau was favoured slightly more by punters at Augusta going off narrow favourite but I don't see the why there should be such a gap between their prices here in Hawaii. We know that Bryson struggled off the tee in Georgia and found himself in some tight spots. To his credit he rallied well and wasn't totally out of the picture come the start of the weekend. At Kapalua we have a course that opens up right into his hands and he shouldn't face the struggle off the tee that he did in November. We know his putting holds up and with plenty of opportunities to make birdies here I fully expect him to figure in the shake up. He is almost 6 pts bigger than the jolly Johnson on the machine and that doesn't quite add up to me given the opportunity that awaits Bryson here. Driving accuracy plays much less of a part here than anywhere else during the season and this will be the first time Dechambeau has teed it up at this venue with this type of game previously finishing 7th in 2019. 

3pts WIN B. Dechambeau 11/1

Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1

Hideki Matsuyama looked to have improved towards the back end of 2020 and I expect 2021 to be a much more successful period. His backswing has improved greatly with the somewhat removal of the pause at the top and good results have followed since. Most notably his short game reached a new level which saw him look like a different animal pitching and chipping. 3rd at the BMW, 2nd in Houston was backed up with three solid performances in the majors which saw finish 22-17-13 in the three big ones played in 2020. I have always considered him over valued by the market and haven't bet many times apart from the end of last year. Kapalua represents one of his best chances in the year having finished 4-2-3 in his three outings here. He has always struggled with the flat stick and the slow greens here give him a chance and narrows the gap between him and the field in his main categorized weakness. 

3pts WIN H. Matsuyama 18/1

Adam Scott at 50/1 (6 places)

One who looks particularly interesting at bigger odds is Adam Scott. He hasn't played here in 7 years but has a runner up finish posted here all the way back in 2007. He doesn't often appear in January and is generally a late starter every season but playing at Kapalua can certainly be seen a positive for the year ahead. He is more than comfortable in any wind that may materialise across the week and has strong stats in the areas I'm looking to cover this week. He tops the field in 3 putt avoidance and ranks 3rd for SG Putting over 25 feet. In 2019 having missed the cut at the Sony on his first appearance of the year, he went onto finish second at Torrey Pines on his second outing. He won on his first appearance in 2020 winning the Genesis so evidence is there to suggest he should not be underestimated when it comes to performing well from the stalls. He loves it at Riviera which is of a similar course fit regarding accuracy off the tee not being an issue. Cameron Smith was playing super stuff prior to the break and could go well again. His putting from inside 10 feet could prove to be a big asset across the week. If conditions allow for some of the shorter hitters to contend I quite like the chances of Kevin Kisner and Ryan Palmer. Palmer goes well this time of year and can be a factor in Hawaii. Kisner loves seaside tracks and can score with the best of them when length becomes less of an issue. It may be worth keeping tabs on Marc Leishman early doors also. He hinted at a return to form at Augusta finishing 13th before missing the cut at an ill suited Mayakoba. If he starts well there should be a fair remodelling of his price. Scheffler is another who could benefit from the slow greens in a trappy event. Hovland was the one most difficult to leave off the staking plan having twice won at seaside tracks and having a tremendous tee to green game. Slow greens will help him also and he is a big mover on the tour having won twice in not much over 30 starts. 

1.25pts each-way A. Scott 50/1 (1/5 6 places)