The American Express - Winner

Usually a 3 course rotation here for the Amex, the 2021 renewal has been reduced to just 2. Three rounds will be played on the Stadium course and just one on the PGA West course. It should probably make for a much more interesting week and with the removal of amateurs from this setup we will have to wait until Thursday to find out whether they'll toughen the layouts at all. Week to week we try to pigeon hole an event into the type of golfer who can contend but that is tough here. Strictly speaking it is a week where you can't rule any out and many different styles translate to good scores. For years it has been mostly a putting contest, but it's worth noting that putting is easier here than the majority of tracks and we can't rule out those who usually don't perform with the flat stick. 

Rahm's withdrawal has made way for Cantlay and Reed to top the market and either could be a big runner. However, these events throw us a bone in the fact that no matter what score Reed or Cantlay could shoot, the nature of the courses mean there will always be a handful alongside and it is very difficult to separate yourself. Therefore I think it is more prudent to focus our bets on those further down the market and a handful of three figure golfer who could make the frame and possibly win.

Cameron Champ at 40/1

Cameron Champ looks worth the risk this week given how hot he can get and his attacking nature. In terms of his career he is only starting spoon feeds, but has so far captured two pga tour titles as well as a top 10 at the PGA and a top 20 at the Masters. Having gone off the boil somewhat after his maiden win he is firmly back on track now and looks ready to achieve what we all thought he would 2 years ago. His game should be perfect for this place where he finished 21st on debut last year. He ranked 32nd in the par breaker stat last term and on his day rates as good as plenty above him in the betting.  His putting continually lets him down and is the main reason why he hasn't won lately. In four of his last 6 recorded events he has recorded minus 4+ strokes gained putting. It is a worry however I believe this is a venue which levels the playing field given how easy the task is on the greens. On route to his top 25 last year he recorded over 2 strokes gained on the greens which ranks inside his top ten performances on tour to date. His long game is in excellent nick and he looks dangerous.

2pts each-way C.Champ  40/1 (1/5 7)

Cameron Champ - 2pts e/w @ 40/1

Russell Henley at 33/1

My second pick from the middle of the pack is Russell Henley. He gave us a good run until he completely stalled last week during the final round but once again showed what fine nick his long game is in. He was solid enough on the greens too with his best performance with the putter since he was 3rd at the CJ Cup in October. The greens will always be the problem with henley but there have been enough signs in the last few months that when he produces that great week with the putter he could quite well get over the line. The CJ Cup result was backed up with a top 5 at the Zozo and 11th last week at the Sony. He is one of the more likelier candidates to get a win this year outside of the top ten in the world and there may be not be a better opportunity than the Amex, where you're given some grace on the greens. 

2pts each-way R.Henley  33/1 (1/5 6)

Russell Henley - 2pts e/w @ 33/1

Talor Gooch at 70/1

In the middle of the market Charles Howell interested me giving how well he plays on the correlating courses I'm looking to this week. Noren and Wise are two others who could play well with the latter probably just a bit short for me this week. Noren however can be lethal with the putter and has shown some decent signs the last few months. Si Woo Kim is another who doesn't look far off. Around the 70/1 mark Talor Gooch is preferred. The Oklahoma native has enjoyed success here finishing 17th in 2020 and 4th the year before. With a 3rd place at Torrey and a top 10 at Riviera clearly Gooch is a fan of the West Coast swing. A missed cut last week is of little concern, especially after a layoff and the chance of finding a game much easier here in California. He has two top 5s in his last 5 events in decent company and the Christmas break probably came at the wrong time. Nevertheless, he is back on the West Coast where some of his best performances have come and given his play here the last couple of years must hold a decent chance of going well.

1pt each-way T.Gooch  70/1 (1/5 7)

Talor Gooch - 1pt e/w @ 70/1

Sepp Straka at 80/1

Sepp Straka looks worth the punt this week. He finished 66-66-65 last week at the Sony with only an opening rusty 69 putting him out of the conversation over the weekend. He ranked 12th in Strokes Gained Approach last week and if he can fire a similar performance with a few more putts holed he should see a better finish than his top 25 last week. 1 missed cut from the last 9 is a fair run of form for the Austrian who posted two top 5 finishes in 2020. 4th at this event was his best effort but he has produced several eye catching performances now to suggest he can't be too far off a landing a win on the big stage. I wanted a slightly bigger price but he's near the top of my list of potential contenders so I'll be betting anyhow.

1pt each-way S.Straka  80/1 (1/5 8)

Sepp Straka - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Austin Cook at 200/1

Austin Cook is crying out to be backed at 200/1. Again, this is a venue which suits some longer priced golfer and I'm more than happy to play Cook. He has the tendency to go low at these places that yield plenty of birdies. He won the RSM late in 2017 on a score of 21 under. 5 starts ago he was edged out in a playoff at the Shriners having shot 23 under over the four days. Back in 2014 he finished 14th here at the Amex having lead going into the final day before shooting a horrid 75. I wouldn't expect the same outcome should he get into that position again. One of those with little worries on the greens and can be expected to make his fair share. This should see him climb high enough up the leaderboard to hopefully give us a big interest over the weekend.

1pt each-way A.Cook  200/1 (1/5 8) 

Austin Cook - 1pt e/w @ 200/1

Maverick McNealy at 100/1

I don't often like to go with 7 picks but I'll split the stakes on my final two outsiders who could go well at fancy prices. Maverick McNealy could play a big role at the finish of this event given how well he can putt. He has started this season off in fine fashion with four top 20s in his last six events. On route to 17th at the Sanderson he posted a ridiculous 11 strokes gained on the greens. That was his best performance on the greens to date but it shows us what he is capable of. Even if his long game doesn't fire he could putt his way into contention. Finished 5th at Pebble last year and 15th at Torrey Pines so clearly enjoys these parts. Playing well so looks another inetesting sort at triple figures. It is hard to separate so many of these and I like quite a lot of outsiders. Kramer Hickok could easily make a run at winning this. Camillo Villegas may be a romantic choice but he is playing well enough to warrant serious consideration and I may have a few quid on the exchange.

0.75pt each-way M.McNealy  100/1 (1/5 7)

Maverick McNealy - 0.75pts e/w @ 100/1

Nate Lashley at 300/1

I'll leave my last pick for Nate Lashley though who looks a massive number at 350/1. Another romantic tale, he won the Rocket Mortgage having gone through plenty in his personal life. A missed cut last week is no worry as he finished 4th in Punta Cana off the back of MC-MC-77 lead in form. He withdrew during this event last year only to fiish 3rd the following start at Phoenix. Lashley has the capability of cropping up out of the blue and having finished 12th and 29th here in the previous two years could easily go well again. Kirk, Burns, Casey (decent price) and Hoge were others on my long list, but Villegas was without doubt the toughest to leave off.

0.5pt each-way N.Lashley 300/1 (1/5 8)

Nate Lashley - 0.5pts e/w @ 300/1