Abu Dhabi Golf Championship - Winner

The course in Abu Dhabi is now iconic on the European Tour and it is delightful that the event gets the field it deserves to kick off the 2021 year. No specifics really stand out when looking to narrow the field for a potential winner but Greens In Regulation always pops up as an important stat among those towards the top of the leaderboard. Links form is regularly another pointer as to who may play well here in these parts. Rory McIlroy heads the betting and I have to say is mighty tempting. It looks like the early/late wave may have a significant advantage over the week with winds due to be at their fastest on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. If that plays out Rory must hold every chance and I wouldn't put anyone off making him your sole pick for the week. 

Rafa Cabrera Bello at 80/1 (8 Places)

Rafa Cabrera Bello is one with a links win under his belt and with four top 20s in his last four tries here and another two top tens to boot boasts one of the better course form horses who has yet to win around the track. He has a win in nearby Dubai also which has to be considered a positive. I personally don't expect Thomas to win here with all that has gone on recently and if Rory shows any rust at all the opportunity is wide open for one of these lads to win. The mere fact that all these solid efforts from the Spaniard at this event have come at his first outing of the year speaks volumes for his ability to go well after a break. It didn't go to plan last year on the PGA Tour but he can mix it with the best on his day in events like this. I fully expect Bello to hit another level at some stage in his career and this venue has proven fruitful in the past. His form last year was extremely average but I think the price represents an opportunity.

1.5pts each-way R.Cabrera-Bello  80/1  (1/5 8)

Rafa Cabrera Bello - 1.5pts e/w @ 80/1

Robert MacIntyre at 33/1 (8 Places)

Next up we've got Robert MacIntyre. The Scot enjoyed a super end to 2020 winning in Cyprus and 6th in South Africa. It looks like a defining moment in the career of the Scot who has gotten off the mark fairly early despite expectations in places of winning before that. The end of season form was partly due to some gym work and hours on the Peloton bike. He cut a slimmer figure towards the end of last year and that looks to be a positive for his golf game. The belief is now there he can mix it with the big boys and I expect Bobby to kick on and possibly win more than what he is expected to. That could start this week where a solid long game and fair length off the tee should help his cause. He is on the right side of the draw and can continue this run of wins from the UK/Ireland.

1.5pts each-way R.MacIntyre  33/1  (1/5 8)

Robert MacIntyre - 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1

Lucas Herbert at 80/1 (8 Places)

At just 19 places below MacIntyre in the world rankings, Lucas Herbert looks underestimated in the market as he bids for his second tour win. The first came on his second outing in 2020 winning the Dubai Desert so a bold show from the traps certainly is possible. He finished a very respectable 31st in the US Open and finished off is year in fine style with a 7th place at the Irish Open and 4th at the Scottish. A spot of wind throughout the week shouldn't harm him as he has numerous good finishes in the UK including another links top 10 at the Dunhill Links. Plenty of fine links players have won in this part of the world and Herbert can become the latest to benefit from a deft touch in some challenging conditions. 

1pt each-way L.Herbert  80/1  (1/5 8)

Lucas Herbert - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Jamie Donaldson at 125/1 (6 Places)

Jamie Donaldson is on the wrong side of the draw but is capable enough to overcome it and it any surprises await with the wind forecast and he gets an advantage he is in decent enough form to make hay. On his day he is a green in regulation machine and once the tour restarted in mid 2020 he found a new lease of life. Numerous good finishes followed as well a 3rd place in Cyprus and a runner up spot on South Africa. He clearly recaptured the form of old and if the putter behaves on any given week he would have a huge chance. He won here back in 2013 and course form translates here more often than not. If he is to land a title soon this would be one of the tracks most suitable. He faces a tough task with the tournament jolly and possibly the draw, but I'm hopeful he can go well once again.

1pt each-way J.Donaldson  125/1  (1/5 6)

Jamie Donaldson - 1pt e/w @ 125/1

Alex Levy at 200/1 (6 Places)

I'll finish off with two smaller bets at triple figure prices. Alex Levy is one who travels successfully with wins and top 5 finishes in plenty of countries. He has one top ten here 3 years ago but is capable of going very low on his day. The Frenchman enjoyed some of his best form for nearly two years with top tens in Cyprus and South Africa before the curtain closed on 2020. A top 20 in Scotland a few weeks previous to those finishes show us he can't be too far away from capturing the form of old which made him a five time European Champion. 

0.75pt each-way A.Levy  200/1  (1/5 6)

Alex Levy - 0.75pts e/w @ 200/1

Padraig Harrington at 150/1 (7 Places)

Another who has plenty in the trophy cabinet is Padraig Harrington. I backed him in the first event after restrictions eased thinking the lockdown will have helped his game, especially with all the tutoring he was doing online. He missed the cut at the Galgorm but better results were to follow. He was 9th in the Scottish Open the following week and followed that up two weeks later with a top 15 in the Scottish Championship. Two respectable efforts in the states ended the year finishing 26th in Bermuda and 32nd in Houston. If he can manage to hole a few putts he can overcome the worst draw and has shown ample capability in the wind before. Aphibarnrat was the next on the list given he has won plenty and has shown form on links before.

0.75pt each-way P.Harrington  150/1  (1/5 7)

Padraig Harrington - 0.75pts e/w @ 150/1