Phoenix Open - Winner

Since the re-design of TPC Scottsdale in 2014 we have seen this course become significantly trickier. It is still relatively easy but even more strategy than what was already required is essential over 72 holes here. The finish is one of the most exciting on tour with the reachable par 5 15th and even more so the reachable par 4 17th where we saw Grace's chances sink a few years ago whilst trading jolly having been on at triple figures. This isn't exactly a bombers paradise with all types of games taking the spoils home here. My belief is that it is prudent to stay away from the market leaders in an event such as this. This course has plenty of birdie opportunities and the gap is somewhat narrowed between the top and the bottom of the market. No matter how well Rory or Rahm may play someone else will probably be alongside. Just twice in the last 13 renewals has this been won by more than 1 shot and 7 of those 13 have been decided by a playoff. Winning here is usually done by fine margins and I don't like the scenario of a market leader playing very well and having a fair chance of having someone alongside and having to defeat them in a playoff. That being said the prices of some of the winners here down the years have been relatively fancied with Stadler the only significant outsider to have won in the last decade. 

Corey Connors at 70/1 (8 Places)

Corey Conners' game has been in very decent shape this past number of months with the ever unreliable flat stick the reason for not getting over the line. The Canadian is a super ball striker who can match plenty in this field from tee to green. The putter holds him back significantly but the horror shows on the greens have disappeared lately and even though he needs to do a fair bit better to win an event, the massive negative strokes gained numbers on the greens haven't surfaced of late. This has resulted in three top tens in his last six, including the Masters. At a long, tough Torrey last week a top 40 finish is a respectable effort also. Pure greens can hopefully help the small upturn on the greens recently and if Hideki can win here twice then maybe someone who has equal problems on the greens can overcome the test here also. I'd give him a better chance than the odds suggest given his current run.

1pt each-way C.Conners  70/1  (1/5 8)

Corey Connors - 1pt e/w @ 70/1

JT Poston at 150/1 (8 Places)

JT Poston looks crying out to be backed at 150/1. The world no74 had a poor start to the year but put everything right last week with an impressive top 20 finish at the Farmers. That was largely down to topping the putting stats on the week. The rest of his game struggled somewhat but he will have more room here in Scottsdale and with a hot putter could easily make enough birdies to contend. He showed us how low he can go when winning the Wyndham shooting a final round 62 to edge out Webb Simpson. Poston easily has more wins in him and he looks overpriced to me this week given his effort last week at Torrey.

1pt each-way JT Poston  150/1  (1/5 8)

JT Poston - 1pt e/w @ 150/1

Max Homa at 70/1 (7 Places)

Max Homa was hugely impressive the way he won the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow a few years ago and more is probably to come at some stage. 12th in Mexico, 21st at the Amex and 18th last week at the Farmers suggets Max is in the throws of some of his best form to date. This time last year he went on a solid run on the West Coast also finishing 9th at the Farmers, 6th here in Phoenix then 14th at Pebble and 5th at the Genesis. Another run looks likely and he is one to keep on the right side of in coming weeks. His performance at Quail Hollow was very eyecatching and some of his best efforts have come in the tougher fields. 70/1 and 7 places looks one of the better bets of the week.

1pt each-way M.Homa  70/1  (1/5 7)

Max Homa - 1pt e/w @ 70/1

Billy Horschel at 50/1 (8 Places)

Billy Horschel has played here a fair bit down the years with his best effort coming last year finishing 9th. He has made 7 of 8 cuts at Scottsdale and the 50/1 on offer this week is worth taking. Missing the cut last week doesn't bother me that much as Torrey is a place that can get on top of you quickly and a second round of 69 in tough conditions shows us he can't be in bad nick. 5th in Mexico and 7th at the Sony is a very decent return and we know what he is capable of on his day. One from this price bracket who will happily take on the market leaders on Sunday if needs be.

1pt each-way B.Horschel  50/1  (1/5 8)

Billy Horschel - 1pt e/w @ 50/1

Aaron Wise at 150/1 (7 Places)

Aaron Wise was a third of his price this week when lining up for the Amex where he missed the cut. That was his first outing of the year and maybe a little rust can be expected. In his three previous events to that he posted a runner up in Mexico and a top 20 in Houston. Wise on his day is a cracker golfer and having experienced somewhat of a lull in his career after his maiden win I believe he will come back and show his talent once again. He missed the cut on debut here last year but I do think his game suits Scottsdale and I expect better this time around. The field is stronger but I can't help but feel the 150/1 on offer here is a slight overreaction to his missed cut in California. 

0.75pt each-way A.Wise  150/1  (1/5 7)

Aaron Wise - 0.75pts e/w @ 150

Kyle Stanley at 200/1 (6 Places)

Finally I'll have a stab at Kyle Stanley. He won this event back in 2012 but ever since has a very poor record not breaking the top 30. He ranked 9th in the tee to green stats last week when finishing inside the top 20 at the Farmers and should he manage to hole a few more putts this week he could manage to reproduce some of the heroics that saw him win his maiden title all those years ago. Surprise former winners pop up now and again and given the golf he played last week he is worth having a small bet on. 

0.75pt each-way K.Stanley  200/1  (1/5 6)

Kyle Stanley - 0.75pts e/w @ 200/1