Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's PGA Tour event, The Players Championship.
The Players Championship - Winner
Golf fans missed out on Sawgrass last year due to the beginning of the Pandemic in the States but thankfully hope is restored and we have a mouthwatering event to look to forward with all of the world's best taking the trip to Ponte Vedra and the Dye course in Florida. It is worth noting that all types of golfers contend around here. McIlroy won it last back in 2019 but the polar opposite game on Jim Furyk was runner up. Similarly, Simpson, Tim Clark, KJ Choi and Fred Funk showed us you can win here without the need for a terribly long ball. A neat long game is the way to skin this track whether you hit it long or short off the tee. Proximity to the hole is often a stat I lean to in this event with most of the approaches coming in from 200 yards plus. Recent winners have all had some kind of form in the lead in too, mostly with top 20 finishes in their previous start.
Collin Morikawa at 20/1 (10 Places)
I backed Morikawa in this event last year at 50/1 and although we see less than half the price this time around I see no reason to desert the boy wonder. He shot 4 under on his debut round last year before the event was cancelled and I can only feel he'd have gone on to contend on a track that is made to showcase his strengths. Proximity to the hole is important here and there aren't many better in that field. During the last 24 rounds he ranks 1st in Proximity from 125-150, 6th 150-175, 1st 175-200 and 15th 200+. His putting as ever determines if he can win the event and as I wrote the last time we can only hope he has an ordinary week. He had a super week at the WGC gaining 4 strokes on the greens over the week. I'd take my chances with any positive number here at Sawgrass. His approach play should give him such a huge advantage over the field at this venue where he shouldn't need the same quality he showed on the greens at the Concession club. You'd have to think Morikawa would win this event during his career given how it lends itself to solid approach play and I'm more than happy to nibble at 22/1 given he is near the peak of his powers. The putting lesson with O'Meara did the trick a few weeks ago and if a level consistency comes on the greens then the floodgates are about to open.
2.5pts each-way C.Morikawa 20/1 (1/5 10)
Justin Thomas at 20/1 (9 Places)
I'll take two towards the top of the market and although I had hoped to get a slightly bigger price I'll invest some cash on Justin Thomas. There is no doubt Thomas has not put his best foot forward in recent weeks but two top 15 finishes in his last three starts is far from a crisis. He has suffered some setbacks lately with the death of his grandfather and the controversy over a spare of the moment remark over a missed putt. Nevertheless, Thomas should and will recover from this quickly and Sawgrass where he can showcase his excellent approach play is a good a venue as any. Thomas' approach play recently is still very solid despite not results going his way with finishing inside the top 25 in all but one of the six yardage categories in proximity. He finished 3rd here in 2016 when a third round of 75 hindered his chances of a win. He has slipped to a backable mark anyhow and although I wanted a few ticks bigger I'm happy with the 20/1.
2.5pts each-way J.Thomas 20/1 (1/5 9)
Paul Casey at 55/1 (8 Places)
It is difficult to choose in the middle of the market and at the prices little appeal even though some look to have strong credentials. Jason Day is playing well enough to consider but I can't get excited about the price given the quality of field. He doesn't produce the goods often enough to warrant backing around the 45/1 mark. The best in the middle bracket looks to be Paul Casey and although I've backed him a few times recently I'm more than happy to do so again at 55/1. Recent form figures of 8-WIN-12-5-10 among very decent company don't read like a 55/1 poke to my eyes. Casey hasn't done a lot here down the years but I'm prepared to take the chance that this recent form is among some of the best in his career and he can overcome a slightly dismal record here. He has the Florida form in abundance and given a slightly better week on the greens last week we could have been looking at a much better finishing position than 10th. He is one where I'm sceptical if he'll continue the form at Sawgrass but where the price dictates that I'll certainly pay my money to see.
1pt each-way P.Casey 55/1 (1/5 8)
Chris Kirk at 140/1 (8 Places)
I'll finish with a couple of interesting golfers this week at tasty prices. Back in 2015 Chris Kirk lead this after three days before succumbing to pressure and finishing with a final round 75 and eventually finishing 13th. Another 13th position the year before and a 12th spot a few years later spells out that Kirk likes this venue. He can bring an ounce of tee to green class to this venue and if his putter heats up he could be a factor. He has gone through a lot in recent years and a win on the Korn Ferry Tour last year has boosted his career once again and he looks determined to get in the winners circle, something he has done four times before on the tour. He has gained strokes in all departments in his last two outings and brings a level of consistency that may just be rewarded here this week.
0.75pt each-way C.Kirk 140/1 (1/5 8)
Kevin Kisner at 125/1 (10 places)
At 125/1 I can't leave Kevin Kisner off the staking plan. Kisner ranks 35th in the world on his day can mix it with the best if the venue suits. Sawgrass is one of those perfect for Kisner's game where he was beaten in a playoff in 2015. His recent form is average but he has posted semi respectable results despite losing strokes in most departments of his game each week. The putter has been saving him and he has recorded positive figures there in his last five events. At Sawgrass he can hopefully play to his strengths off the tee. Keeping the ball in play here is more important than most venues and when he arrives at these types of courses he must be considered. His long game is uncharacteristically suffering right now but if we see a turnaround at a suitable Sawgrass and his putter remains hot then he could contend once again. Hoffman is playing well enough to be considered here but a shocking record at Sawgrass would slightly put you off. Putnam lands here with two top 5s in his last two starts and recent form has been a pointer before so worth keeping an eye on him early. McNealy is a talented sort who could overcome a lack of experience here and produce a performance similar to Pebble.
0.75pt each-way K.Kisner 125/1 (1/5 10)
Andrew Putnam at 175/1 (10 Places)
Finally I'll have a small punt on Andrew Putnam. I am surprised the bookies have made him a top price of 200/1 and I feel it is definitely worth chancing. During 2019 Putnam enjoyed a comfortable spell inside the top 50 in the world with a run of consistently impressive results. He fell off a cliff in 2020 and ended up outside the top 200. This year has started in much better fashion though with 7th at Phoenix backed up with two top 5 finishes in his last two starts at Puerto Rico and the Arnold Palmer. Signs are Putnam is back towards his best and recent form has always been a good pointer in this event. I didn't expect to see any bigger than 125/1 anywhere so 200/1 is certainly worth a play. Of the others, Hoffman is playing well enough to be considered but a shocking record at Sawgrass would slightly put you off. McNealy is a talented sort who could overcome a lack of experience here and produce a performance similar to Pebble.
0.75pt each-way A.Putnam 175/1 (1/5 10)
