Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's PGA Tour event, the Valero Texas Open.
Texas Open - Winner
Not far away from the big showpiece of the year but we've one week to trudge through before we get to that lush green carpet at Augusta. The Oaks course that has hosted this event for over a decade now is one of the trickier layouts on the tour. It's not a track that can be bullied off the tee and a certain degree of precision from tee to green is certainly advantageous over the week. Approach play is key. The greens are among the most difficult to hit on the tour and having a stellar short game will probably not be enough to cope with that challenge throughout the week. Approach play will need to be on point. Poor to average putters have excelled here down the years so I put little emphasis on what happens on the greens, in fact I'd tend to favour those whose weakness lies with the flatstick.
Jordan Spieth at 12/1 (Winner)
I'm starting with the tournament jolly this week and although there are a handful of likely contenders towards the top I believe this may just be Spieth's week. He has been flawless with approach play of late. He has gained over four strokes in approach play on the field in four of his last five events. The only negative number in that stretch was at the Genesis where he managed to finish 15th with a good putting display. Spieth's long game is in the best nick it has been since late 2017 and his results lately suggest he will get back into the winners enclosure very soon. Where better than in his home state of Texas. The worry is off the tee. He still hasn't totally solved that problem and you can be punished with any wild tee shots here around this Greg Norman layout. What has been telling are the weeks when he has showed any weakness he has overcome that with other parts of his game. In three of his last five events he has finished in the top 5 and only KH Lee and Corey Conners are the only members of this field to have finished ahead of him during any of those three events. I understand many might think it is short seeing he hasn't won in a long time but I think this is the perfect opportunity he has been waiting for.
3.5pts WIN Jordan Spieth 12/1
Charles Howell III at 66/1 (8 places)
A handful of others at the top of the market appeal. Conners, Finau, Ancer and Matsuyama all have solid credentials this week but I do believe the bookmakers have a fair hold of their lines. Ancer and Hideki appealed the most of that group and I'd be surprised if one of the doesn't feature heavily over the weekend. Instead I'll take a chance with Charles Howell. Charles is another one of these who is struggling big time with the putter which interests me. His long game has been in great shape gaining over 6 strokes tee to green at the Arnold Palmer, and over 11 at Sawgrass on his way to a top ten there. His last win at the RSM came at an exposed course open to the elements. It's a risky play I hear you given he isn't the most reliable of sorts whilst in the heat of contention but this may be a week where he can free wheel after some decent results lately. Prior to the Corales his fair results at Sawgrass and Arnold Palmer were achieved losing 2.6 and 4.5 strokes putting across those weeks. If he can find a touch on the greens he may have a chance of finishing higher than his 8th placed finish here back in 2011.
1pt e/w Charles Howell III 66/1 (1/5 8)
Sam Ryder at 80/1 (8 places)
Sam Ryder is another struggling around the greens but this course rewards those with a solid long game and I'm surprised the prices being laid about the Floridian. He is more than used to playing golf in the wind and recent results have proven that. Last week he finished runner up in Punta Cana where it was blowing a gale. The week before he ranked inside the top 10 in approach play at the Honda on route to finishing 8th. This is the best form Ryder has shown in a fair while and with his long game firing he could well be in the picture this week. One of his best finishes came on this same week in Houston finishing 5th behind Poulter and Hossler. I was surprised to see much more than 50/1 this week.
1pt e/w Sam Ryder 80/1 (1/5 8)
Harry Higgs at 60/1 (8 places)
Harry Higgs should know more about this course than his debut appearance here might suggest having spent a lot of his life in Texas. A fan favourite Joel Dahmen gained his maiden victory last week in Punta Cana and Higgs may just take some inspiration from Dahmen's heroics. He arrives in fine form having finished 29th at the Players and 19th at the Honda. He ranks second in Approach play over the last twelve rounds and 3rd in Ball striking. His long game is in very good shape but it is around the greens where the problems lie. However, this is a course that rewards those with a consistently accurate long game and I'm hoping he won't be called upon too often to get up and down around the greens. He has been fairly well backed this week and with the withdrawal of Dustin Johnson his price has condensed even further but he's one for my staking plan regardless.
1pt e/w Harry Higgs 60/1 (1/5 8)
