Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's European Tour event, Tenerife Open.
Tenerife Open - Winner
Similar conditions await the players this week as we move forward to Tenerife for the second leg of the Canary Islands Swing. Costa Adeje is the venue and we see a similar short track that will yield a ton of birdies across the week, maybe even more so than Meloneras. 2003 was the last time this course staged a tour event so it is of little relevance now. The greens change to Bermuda this week and that should be the only significant change in the test from last week. Wind will be a factor like last week and an ability shown on coastal tracks will be beneficial. That being said this course should present a silly amount of opportunities and you can't rule many out as the playing field certainly levels on a simple track like this.
Victor Dubuisson at 33/1 (5 places)
Victor Dubuisson certainly looks to have somewhat turned a corner after a barren few years. Five top 25 finishes in his last seven appearances is a level of consistency that he hasn't managed to reach for a number of years now. He managed 21st last week in Gran Canaria with ten bogeys on the scorecard throughout the week. He had 22 deviations from par in the right direction so he can clearly make the amount of birdies needed to contend over the weekend here if he can eradicate those mistakes. That is ten rounds in the 60s from his last twelve and he certainly looks as if he's trending in the right direction. He has yet to get into a winning position and I've no doubt he has enough in the locker to cope with that if and when he arrives there. Always a risky play the Frenchman but he is making enough birdies to warrant consideration in an event like this.
Renato Paratore at 50/1 (6 places)
Renato Paratore bounced back last time out in Austria finishing 12th after a horror 78 in round one put him behind the 8 ball. The Italian hasn't enjoyed the best of fortune since winning the British Masters last year but a 7th placed spot at Wentworth a few months after that win was another sign of what he is capable of in better fields than this one assembled this week. In 2020 he ranked 5th in the field here for birdies made and should he continue in the same form he produced during the final three days in Austria then he has every chance to reach the heights of last summer. A runner up on a similar track in Mauritius as well as top tens in Qatar and the Dunhill Links show us he has the credentials to score around Tenerife.
1.25pts e/w Renato Paratore 50/1 (1/5 6)
Alexander Bjork at 80/1 (7 places)
Alexander Bjork has tumbled down the rankings these last couple of years but with two top 25s in his last two starts there are enough signs to suggest the Swede is on his way back and better results may be on the horizon. His short game has always been a strength of his game and finishing 5th in SG putting last week is a very good sign. Higgo finished 1st in putting last when winning and although we don't put too much significance on that stat week to week, these few weeks with scores so low a lot more will depend upon the flat stick than usual.
1pt e/w Alexander Bjork at 80/1 (1/5 7)
Conor Syme at 50/1 (7 places)
Connor Syme has been priced higher than I thought he would have after last weeks heroics. The Scot was booked for second if not better in Meloneras before tumbling to an 8 down the par 4 14th on Sunday. It was a disappointing end to a great week. 71 and 68 bookended a 61 and 62 on Friday and Saturday so we know just how low he can go. Two starts previous he was 3rd behind Harding and Kitayama in Kenya. Overall for someone who had two top 5s in his last three starts 66/1 looked incredibly generous and has made way for 50s now. I have little other reason to back other than the fact I thought 40/1 would be the price about him this week so I'll invest in the value number.
Adrian Otaegui at 66/1 (7 places)
Adrian Otaegui has gone off the boil of late and a missed cut last week will not have done much to improve confidence. Nevertheless it is worth noting he made 11 birdies across his two rounds last week that had he maintained that ratio with little mistakes he was on the road to contention. Instead a triple bogey 6 on day one halted any chances and he missed the cut on the number. A second round 66 with three bogeys shows us his game certainly isn't in terrible nick. He won the Scottish Championship last year and showed he can cope with some windy conditions and with wins in three of his last four years on tour he could be a sleeper in this market towards 70/1.
Benjamin Herbert at 125/1 (7 places)
Benjamin Hebert is another not showing an awful lot lately but has drifted to a backable mark at a track where he could see some success. He showed just how low he could go in the 2019 Scottish Open closing with a final round 62 only to be narrowly edged out in a playoff by Wiesberger. Top tens at the Dunhill Links, Irish Open and Qatar are just the type of profile you want for coastal tracks such as these. A little bit of hope involved that he bounces back to some form but the 125/1 on offer looks a decent mark for a bet in what could be one of the easiest tracks we've seen in decades. Of the others I thought Marcel Schneider was of interest and maybe worth a small bet First Round Leader. Zander Lombard played well enough last week when we were on to warrant some respect this week once again
