Valspar Championship - Winner

We are in Florida on the PGA Tour for the Valspar and the tricky Copperhead course at Innisbrook. Paul Casey is bidding this week for a hat trick of wins around the track. It is not a course which can be overpowered and generally speaking the power hitters that dominate the game don't have the same advantage when arriving at Innisbrook. Casey joined the likes of Furyk, Hadwin, Spieth, Senden, Donald and O'Hair in winning this event with a neat and tidy long game and not bashing drivers as far as they possibly could. It takes a different approach here and may see the likes of Johnson and Thomas fail to dominate to their usual standard. The John Deere Classic is an event to look to with many having won both events including Spieth, O'Hair, Singh and Senden. The Sony Open and Mayakoba are another two tournaments I'll keep in mind when finalising my staking plan.

Paul Casey at 22/1 (8 Places)

I'd have made Paul Casey strong third favourite for this event this week so I'm more than happy to plunge in around the 22/1 mark. His near miss at the PGA last year looked a sign to me that he had reached another level and more wins were on the horizon. That played out in Dubai before going close on a handful of occasions since. Top 5s at Pebble and Sawgrass have been backed up by a top ten at Arnold Palmer and overall his form has been very solid in this state. A missed cut last time out at Harbour Town is of little concern as we seen here back in 2019 just what he can do after a missed cut. The week before his win here in 2019 he missed the cut at Sawgrass losing 5 strokes on approach. He put it right comfortably the following week and I'd be surprised if he doesn't do similar again this week. He is brimming with confidence these days and his most successful venue should provide him with another huge opportunity.

2.5pts e/w Paul Casey 22/1 (8 Places 1/5)

Paul Casey - 2.5pts e/w @ 22/1

Russell Henley at 35/1 (5 Places)

Russell Henley finished 9th here back in 2017 and with a runner up finish at the John Deere in the bag too he is of interest on the face of it. Recent form includes 3rd at the Honda and 9th at the RBC so Henley surely has a chance if repeating that kind of form. He topped the SG Approach stat at Harbour Town and similar attributes are needed to score well this week also. He finds plenty of ways not to win in recent times but he is a warrior who will keep battling and eventually prevail. This is one of the more likelier tracks that doesn't demand a lot of length off the tee.  

1.5pts e/w Russel Henley 35/1 (5 Places 1/5)

Russell Henley - 1.5pts e/w @ 35/1

Justin Rose at 35/1 (5 Places)

Justin Rose fought hard at Augusta despite a lifetime out of contention and back to another venue where he has a handful of top tens we could see a repeat performance. He has been lightly raced as he bids to return to the game that saw him briefly on top of the world rankings in 2018. There were signs earlier in the year when he ran Dustin Johnson close him Saudi finishing runner up. Few seen what was coming at the Masters though and it is worth noting he traded favourite a few times throughout the week. Some bigger quotes have been snapped up but I think the 35/1 on offer now is still value.

1.5pts e/w Justin Rose 35/1 (5 Places 1/4)

Justin Rose - 1.5pts e/w @ 35/1

Keith Mitchell at 150/1 (8 Places)

I was surprised to see 150/1 quoted about Keith Mitchell. He played lovely stuff last week alongside Snedeker narrowly missing out finishing a couple behind the eventual winners. Prior to the Zurich he showed signs he was back on track with a top 20 in Texas. Mitchell has played his best stuff in these parts winning the Honda and two of his other best finishes on tour were top 6 finishes at the Arnold Palmer in 2019 and 2020. A top 10 at the John Deere and a couple of top 20s at the Sony boost his chances here with correlating form and certainly looks one of the more interesting outsiders of the week. 

1.0pts e/w Keith Mitchell 150/1 (8 Places 1/5)

Keith Mitchell - 1pt e/w @ 150/1

Danny Willett at 100/1 (8 Places)

Danny Willett posted a top 20 last time out at the RBC and this was another sign that he has to be respected on the tighter tracks that don't demand a great degree of length off the tee. He didn't drive the ball overly well at Harbour Town either so he could improve in that department this week. He gained 6 strokes on the greens though which was a mighty effort and should he arrive with the same hot putter than he did then he should have a fair chance of competing. He lay 3rd heading into the final day in Punta Cana only to fall to a final round 73 and finish 8th. Another solid effort in the bag last weel at the Zurich finishing in the top ten alongside Hatton. These are the venues where he could win in the States and with an international feel to this event down the years he may just add his name to the list of non Americans to win this.

1.0pts e/w Danny Willett 100/1 (8 Places 1/5)

Danny Willett - 1pt e/w @ 100/1