Open De España - Winner

The Club De Campo in Madrid last held this event back in 2019 where Jon Rahm ran out a comfortable winner and the world number one must have a great chance of a repeat teeing up in a weak field for him. His record when heading to his homeland is impeccable and odds around the 2/1 mark give you an indication of what is expected again. That being said, he isn't Tiger Woods, and the price is a shade on the short side for me, and I expect for many golf punters who look for some value elsewhere. I'd rather look for a bigger price to place with a small chance of winning than gamble on the 2/1 landing. In 2019 scrambling looked to be heavily relied upon with plenty of greens missed and as ever around a tree-lined track, a good game off the tee is a huge advantage. Spaniards have a great record in their home events and Rahm will be hard to stop if firing but there's a potential of a Ryder Cup hangover having carried the team towards their pitiful points haul and there's a possibility he could feel the effects of that. I can't help but feel the price is on the skinny side.

Adri Arnaus at 50/1

It is difficult to ignore the chances of Adri Arnaus this week back in his homeland. His form in Spain reads 2-4-62-8-4 and for someone who has been a shade inconsistent, that represents a distinct improvement when he arrives in Spain. The issue with backing Arnaus before was usually the putter but this season that has become a huge strength of his game whilst his driving has gone way off the boil. He has shown some positive signs the past few weeks that his driver may be behaving slightly better and with good vibes from a previous 4th place finish here then he must be considered as one of the main threats to the market leader. 

1.5pts each-way A.Arnaus  50/1  (1/5 6)

Adri Arnaus - 1.5pts @ 50/1

Open De España - Winner

Shubhankar Sharma at 90/1

Shubhankar Sharma has always shown a love for tree-lined tracks and the Indian golfer should continue his recent progress here in Madrid. 80/1 looks mighty tempting for someone who is heading back towards the form that took him close to the top 50 in the world in 2018. He has posted a couple of top tens in Hong Kong and added a top 10 at Wentworth a few weeks ago to add to his previous top 20 there in 2019. He also lead around Chapultepec in the WGC Mexico in 2018 before falling to 9th on the final day may be down to a lack of experience in such a deep field at the time. Overall he plays these strategic tracks well and his game around the greens has caught fire lately gaining strokes on the field comfortably in 7 rounds spanning the BMW PGA and Italian Open. He has posted a few good results this year now without doing anything spectacular but could take that extra leap any week now.

1pt each-way S.Sharma  90/1  (1/4 5)

Shubhankar Sharma - 1pt e/w @ 90/1

Open De España - Winner

Adrian Meronk at 80/1

Min Woo Lee may possess the short game needed to score well around here and he is certainly interesting but quotes of 50/1 look a shade on the short side. Justin Harding finished 7th here last time around and certainly has the capability of going well once again. He has gone close on a handful occasions after winning in Kenya and could compete once again. I'll opt for Adrian Meronk at slightly bigger prices. It's difficult not to see short game playing a fair role here this week and he has been lacking in that department of late. However, if a more swashbuckling style suits this week then the Polish 28 year old could capitalise. He hits the ball a long way and doesn't lose an awful lot accuracy wise for that strength. He finished 2nd three starts ago in Italy mainly due to his prowess from tee to green. 3rd in the British Masters and 3rd the last time he teed it up around Spanish territory in Tenerife show his progress in just his second season on the tour. He is likely to improve from here and a win may be just around the corner.

1pt each-way A.Meronk  80/1  (1/5 6)

Adrian Meronk - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Open De España - Winner

Daniel Van Tonder at 150/1

Daniel Van Tonder can bounce back from a couple of missed cuts on a course that should suit his abilities around the green. Van Tonder is no slouch off the tee but certainly not one of the longest. His reasonably long and accurate game should keep him away from trouble and around the greens, he has a solid record, especially over the last few months where he has excelled. Things went awry at Wentworth and in Holland but this venue should play more into his hands. He bounced back from an MC in Kenya to win on the same course the following week and break his European Tour duck. He has gained some valuable experience since including two top 50s at the PGA and Open Championship. If you take the chance that Rahm doesn't win there are plenty of decent prices about, but the 150/1 on offer for Van Tonder looks one of the better options.

0.75pt each-way D.Van Tonder  150/1  (1/5 6)

Daniel Van Tonder - 0.75pts e/w @ 150/1

Open De España - Winner

Pablo Larrazabal at 100/1

Pablo Larrazabal has won a handful of events with deep quality in the field and must be sided with at triple figures in his home country. Larrazabal had a decent week at Wentworth a few weeks finishing 35th having posted a top ten in Italy the week before. He has a second and two thirds in his home country so not afraid to contend even with the home pressure. It is no surprise he has a good record here finishing 33rd back in 2019 and 3rd the previous time they visited this course back in 2008. The Spaniard ranks 14th in Scrambling and 11th Around the green this term and that looks like the game that converts on this track. 

0.75pt each-way P.Larrazabal  100/1  (1/5 6)

Pablo Larrazabal - 0.75pts e/w @ 100/1