Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's golf, the AVIV Dubai Championship.
Aviv Dubai - Winner
The Fire Course kick starts the two week Dubai finale to the end of the European Tour season, indeed the last European Tour season after Tuesday's announcement on the DP Sponsorship deal. This event was added last year as a schedule filler and has survived for a second year. This is the easier of the two Greg Norman designed tracks and we've just one year of course history to pour-over. It is a difficult one to judge as Rozner won the event hitting it the furthest in the field, whilst the runner up Laporta finished 2nd in driving accuracy. In an event that is won at 20 under and then some we normally look to those golfers who hit the majority of greens. Strokes gained approach is one angle to look at heading into Thursday whilst scrambling and short game look to be less important.
Jason Scrivener at 110/1 (7 Places)
Jason Scrivener hasn't set the world alight since his return to the tour after a 3-month hiatus by finishing 56th and 58th in both the Spanish events last month. For those two events, he ranked 53rd and 42nd SG tee to green and 43rd and 65th in Putting. Absolutely no parts of his game were firing whatsoever yet after a 3-month break he managed to make both cuts, one being on the very tough Valderrama. He has two top tens and a further two top 3 finishes this season despite only teeing it up on fifteen occasions. This time we return to the Desert where he had success earlier in the year by producing his second-best putting performance of the season whilst finishing runner up in Abu Dhabi, a much stronger field than what is presented here this week. Marry that with a top ten at the Earth course in 2019 as well as two top 7 finishes in the Dubai Desert and we can safely assume we see of the Aussies best golf in these parts. Two top 3 finishes in Hong Kong is another example of how well his game travels. His game has been average during those two Spanish events, but looking at the figures I think we can see he has overachieved with his results. If he manages to find his game like he often has in Dubai then the 125/1 may look silly come the weekend.
1.5pts each-way J.Scrivener 110/1 (1/5 7)
Joachim B Hansen at 50/1 (6 Places)
When considering potential winners for a birdie fest it is best to look at approach play and JB Hansen has a solid record on his way to Dubai. 3rd and 8th in his last two showings approach wise and by no means embarrassed in the handful previous and we surely have someone here who can grant himself more chances than most. This Autumn has seen him produce a steady run of figures being inside the top 25 in 6 of his last 7 events, the only fly in that ointment being the circus at the Dunhill Links. He has played well in Oman finishing second there in the Challenge Tour Finals and 6th on the European Tour. Price isn't far off where it should be given the strength of field towards the top of the market, but certainly, one more likely in this price bracket to give it a run. May have a good deal of improvement yet to reach in his career also.
1pt each-way JB Hansen 50/1 (1/5 6)
Fabrizio Zanotti at 75/1 (6 Places)
A bad week approaching the greens last time out in Portugal isn't enough to put me off having a few quid on Fabrizio Zanotti this week. His long game was certainly off last week which is not the norm and looking back on past results the Paraguayan can turn it around quite easily. Two previous bad weeks this year approaching the greens (Crans and Tenerife)have both been followed by tremendous approach figures the following weeks on both occasions finishing the next event on those occasions inside the top 30. His long game never deteriorates for a long period and I fully expect it to return to normal next week. He topped the approach figures two starts ago when we backed him at Valderrama when finishing 4th. He finished 2nd in Oman in 2019 and has two top tens in Abu Dhabi over the last handful of years. Sits at an easily backable mark this week.
1pt each-way F.Zanotti 75/1 (1/5 6)
Edoardo Molinari at 100/1 (7 Places)
Quite simply Edoardo Molinari will find it difficult to win any event given his struggles with the putter. This season especially has been a painful watch as his game has certainly been good enough to win at least once but the woes on the greens are a sorry sight. I'm here to shed some positivity, He has improved his efforts on the greens twice now in two weeks and looks to be heading in the right direction. From Data Golf's chart on true strokes gained putting he has managed 18 rounds this season where he has gained on the field which is extremely poor reading. Two of those 18 rounds came in the Dubai Desert and a further two came in Qatar and Saudi. That is surely encouraging heading into this week and if he can manage a couple of positive rounds on the greens as he did in Dubai earlier in the year then we may have a runner. His approach game is off the charts and could rival anyone in the field over the last number of months. I'm more than prepared to take a chance on triple figures that he can produce something average on the greens which should give him a fair chance.
0.75pt each-way E.Molinari 100/1 (1/5 7)
Kristoffer Broberg at 125/1 (6 Places)
Finally, I'll risk a few quid on the Swede Kristoffer Broberg landing another surprise victory. The win at the Dutch Open came completely out of the blue and was largely down to a stupendous week on the greens. In four starts since he has backed that form up with a 9th at the Dunhill Links and 12th in Portugal on either side of two missed cuts in Spain. Broberg isn't afraid to win as we saw back in 2015 when he won the BMW beating Reed in a playoff and holding firm with the likes of Stenson, Rose, Casey and Garcia on his heels. That was back when he was being tipped to be a special golfer and he started realising those expectations pretty quickly. Maybe this return will signal a different stage in his career, a more consistent one having battled hip and knee injuries ever since that at Lake Malaren. His approach play has been more than adequate lately and should he produce a similar game to what he did last week in Portugal he may be a decent triple-figure runner.
0.75pt each-way K.Broberg 125/1 (1/5 6)
