Our golf expert brings you his preview and predictions for this week's PGA Tour event, the Hero World Challenge.
Hero World Challenge - Winner
The final curtain comes down on a successful year for us golf punters here at Oddschecker and I'd like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support throughout 2021 and their engagement on social media. There have been enough winners and near misses to chop a few months off our life expectancy but we all know it's a rollercoaster worth being on. For my final piece this year I look at the Hero World Challenge coming from the Bahamas once again where 20 of the worlds best gather for Tiger's event and it'll be great to see the game's greatest in attendance. Spieth aside, it'll be great to see Tiger too.
The course has the look of a mixture of links and desert golf but with wide fairways and a host of par 5s it is ready to be attacked. Stenson won last time somewhat out of the blue but it is difficult to see him repeat that feat and the rank outsider in the field is probably on the short side if anything. McIlroy and Morikawa head the betting after their duel in Dubai. Morikawa proved once again he doesn't have the ricks in him that McIlroy does, that being said the Irishman was awful unlucky when his approach shot hit the flag and flew into the bunker late on Sunday afternoon. Regardless Morikawa grabbed it by the scruff and once again showed his ruthless nature in contention. Just what it takes out of those two is to be seen but I wouldn't be rushing to back either this week. We backed Morikawa at a bigger price in Dubai with less to do in my opinion and with 15 top class in form golfers in the field the price doesn't appeal to me that much, especially for somebody prone to a bad putting week. I can't get enthused about McIlroy in a field like this around the 15/2 mark despite showing plenty of positives lately. We'll more than likely get opportunities to back Rory around the 20/1 mark next year in full fields, and prices like that may be more of interest despite this being a 20 runner field.
Brooks Koepka at 25/1 (4 Places)
I find it very difficult to get enthused about anyone in the top half of the market with Spieth being my pick from that section. The wider fairways grants Spieth more room and he should be able to capitalise and looks likely to contend. Instead I'll opt for two towards the bottom. Brooks Kopeka hasn't put his best foot forward lately but we all know that can change in a flash. Back in 2020 he finished 2nd in the St Jude a week after a MC at the 3M Open. His win at Phoenix came off the back of three missed cuts. He then finished 2nd at the PGA a week after missing the cut at the Byron Nelson. He followed that up with a top 5 at the US Open a week after missing the cut at the Palmetto. A field full of many of the worlds best should be enough to motivate him and I'm hopeful he treats this seriously. His win in Arizona earlier this year was off the back of missed cuts, but crucially there were signs of improvement in those weekends off. Last week may be a fickle comparison but there were sure signs that his new equipment worked well and this may be the quick boost that Koepka needed to finish the year off in style. He has a 7th place here back in 2015 shooting 18 under par and this is his best effort in the Bahamas with a couple of other lacklustre efforts. As we all know with Koepka though, motivation is a lot for him and it almost looked like last week with Bryson he had something to prove. I liked what I saw and more than happy to take the chance around 25/1.
1.5pts each-way B.Koepka 25/1 (1/5 4)
Justin Rose at 28/1 (5 Places)
Finally I'll risk Justin Rose. Rose lived in these parts for a fair part of the last decade and that showed in his performances not being out of the top 5 on his last three efforts here. Recently his game has come together and maybe somewhat puzzling that he hasn't got more out of it. That being said it has been very respectable with 10th at the Wyndham being followed with 6th at Wentworth then 12th at the RSM last time out. All parts of his game have been firing and as I say maybe that is slightly worrying that he hasn't fared even better than what he has done. Nevertheless it is solid form and now he arrives at a venue where he has made a ton of birdies on over the last four years and has to be fancied to figure again. These two have a lot to do with the quality towards the top of the market, but I'd rather risk these prices than sweat out the single figure price all week long. Matt Fitzpatrick was the other close to making the staking plan after an impressive effort last time out in Dubai. Best of luck to all playing and enjoy the Christmas break.
1.5pts each-way J.Rose 28/1 (1/5 5)
