Wells Fargo Championship Tips, Preview & Tee Times

With Quail Hollow taking up hosting duties for the Presidents Cup later in the year we make a welcome return to TPC Potomac in Maryland. This course last held events in the 2017 and 2018 seasons where players made the trip for the Quicken Loans. We have plenty to look back to there at those renewals and what was evident that this is a much sterner test from tee to green than Quail Hollow.

This is a tough golf course where long hitters are somewhat restricted in what they can do with blocked out angles forcing even the longest to lay up short off the tee and try to slay this beast in another manner. It is just shy of 7200 yards and plays as a par 71. With accuracy being demanded off the tee with challenging rough and long irons being needed to approach many greens, a tip top long game will no doubt be required. Strokes Gained off the tee won't be so much of a marker this week, more so accuracy of those tee shots, and those who make their gains off the tee through accurate plotting.

Approach play will be equally important, especially from 150 yards+. Molinari topped the Approach stats whilst winning here back in 2018 with runner up and 3rd spots (Armour and Kang) also ranking in the top 4 in that statistic. In 2017 Kyle Stanley finished 4th on Approach when winning with numerous contenders ranking high also. It is a fair test this one and those who have made the trip ahead of the PGA should be boosted by the test. Stanley won on 7 under in 2017. Molinari won at a stunning 21 under par in the peak of his powers, although 13 under was next best in second place.

McIlroy begins his preparations for the PGA in a few weeks time by a trip here unbeknown to us whether an ounce of his presence here is simply down to loyalty to an event that has been very kind to him in the past. He mastered another back door Masters finish by finishing 2nd without ever really being in the shakeup. It must be noted for Rory bashers, however, that this back door finish was a lot different to his previous ones. He played remarkably well all week at Augusta but just simply could not hole a putt until the final day.

Previously lapses of concentration and some poor long game efforts have resulted in him being out of contention too early only to pounce late. 2022 played out differently though and there were no disasters to catapult him down the leaderboard. The sheer brilliance of those like Smith and Scheffler to steal a march early on McIlroy that week was largely down to much better-behaving putters, which we all know can be a fickle operation week to week. So the next time someone says 'That's what Rory always does at the Masters' put them right - HE PLAYED SUPER STUFF

Max Homa at 40/1 (Eight Places)

I really like Max Homa's chances in this having won the 2019 renewal of this event back at Quail Hollow. Homa has slowly become one of those to rely upon when you arrive at a stern test. Wins at Riveria and Quail Hollow, a further two top 10s at Riviera, 6th Muirfield, 9th Torrey, 10th Pebble, 10th Bayhill all display the talent that Homa has for Championship golfers. Although this course may not fit in that bracket on paper, in terms of a tough tee to green test that demands quality ball striking it certainly does.

Homa has developed into an elite ball-striker who can be relied upon to perform from tee to green. He ranks 32nd from tee to green this year with a large portion of his efforts being superb ball striking. It was for those reasons I backed him at Augusta and had he managed a better short game could have been a fair bit higher up the leaderboard. He looks destined for more big wins and with an absence of superstars after the jolly this week the 40/1 mark looks a fair price.

1.5pts each-way M.Homa 40/1 (1/5 8)

Abraham Ancer at 28/1 (Eight Places)

Towards the top of the market there are a few who appeal. Fitzpatrick surely is not far away from landing a maiden victory on the tour but I must say taking prices around the 20/1 mark don't excite me an awful lot, even in this field. Similar applies to Corey Conners, although I'd prefer him over Fitz this week. The Canadian is made for courses like this, but relying on his putter is a frustrating task and I'd prefer to take the chance on him at bigger prices in a stronger field, because when the big week with the putter comes it will more than likely result with a victory. At slightly bigger odds my preference is for Abraham Ancer.

He will not have been suited by the requirement of distance last week and despite that managed a respectable 42nd despite losing plenty of shots around the greens in the process. His approach play was much better than his previous couple of efforts which is a good sign, especially because of the length of approach shots he would have been faced with last week. That should have been good practice for the 150-200 yards approaches here which they'll face plenty of.

The Mexican has just the one win on tour at the St Jude and should put that right sooner or later given the talent at his disposal. I'd have preferred a slightly bigger price given he hasn't posted a strokeplay top 20 finish in the States this year, but the positive signs were there last week to suggest better may be to come around a more suitable layout. 4th here in 2018 is another boost to his chances.

1.5pts each-way A.Ancer 28/1 (1/5 8)

Sergio Garcia at 40/1 (Eight Places)

In the same price bracket I'll include Sergio Garcia. If there is a guy who you can rely on to drive the ball well it's Sergio Garcia. He has manufactured a great career out of that one particular strength although it would be silly not to mention how good his iron play is as well, and it'll need to be this week. The Spaniard has struggled in that department all year but took a major step forward at Augusta where he ranked 3rd in Approach for the week. This was a welcome return to form and a top 25 finish bodes well for the second half of the season.

I would imagine this course sets up very well for a strategic long game like Garcia's and should he arrive in similar form with his irons than what he did at Augusta he must have a serious chance of landing a blow in this field. He certainly will not give up on another Ryder Cup appearance and it'd be no surprise should he click into gear the closer we get to qualification beginning. 

1pt each-way S.Garcia 40/1 (1/5 8)

Joel Dahmen at 66/1 (Seven Places)

Joel Dahmen was five off the pace after Day One in Punta Cana on his defence before withdrawing prior to round two due to illness. The Dominican Republic can play havoc with one's digestive system if not used to the climate and it was somewhat a shame for him to be forced to withdraw on his first defence of a title.

He bounced back after a few weeks off to finish a very credible 12th in the Heritage. He like Homa has form on similar courses. Runner up at Quail Hollow, 5th at Riviera, 5th Bayhill, 12th Sawgrass and 9th Torrey all show his likeness for a ball striking test. He finished 23rd here back in 2018 at the Quicken Loans. This test should really suit his game and should he manage to hit plenty of greens then he is capable of the odd stand out putting performance.

1pt each-way J.Dahmen 66/1 (1/5 7)

Austin Smotherman at 200/1 (Seven Places)

Austin Smotherman is another solid ball striker who must be supported at triple-figure prices. The Californian first arrived on our telly during the Farmers in his home state where he finished 11th at a tough Torrey. Nothing quite as heroic as that has happened since but his long game certainly suggests he could cope well with a test such as this. Ranking 24th in Ball Striking and 57th from tee to green on this his maiden season is a sure sign there is a lot more to this game than meets the eye on results alone. His win last year on the Korn Ferry Tour came this exact week in the Simmons Bank Open which takes place once again this week. The problem lies with the short game and in particular his work around the greens. However it is worth noting Armour finished 2nd here in 2018, lying 68th in ATG, whilst Hossler and Hadley who were 8th and 8th respectively ranked 99th and 93rd in that department. He has the talent to break his duck early, and a week where a lot of the best are missing and beginning PGA preparation, opportunity knocks for the likes of Austin. 

0.75pt each-way A.Smotherman 200/1 (1/5 7)