European Open Winner

We return to the Green Eagle Golf Course in Germany for this week's European Open, the 5th time on the trot that this venue has held the event. This course is a beast at over 7600 yards but nevertheless hasn't produced the swashbuckling types of golfers you'd expect.

When Armitage won last year he did so with very little distance off the tee, and others have performed similar on their way to contending here since 2017. Overall, those who perform well from tee to green can expect to contend as you'll find this course a real struggle if your long game isn't in fine condition. 

Fox went mighty close for us last week going as short as 1/500 with the bookmakers and matched on the exchange at 1.02. It was hard to believe what happened to thwart Fox who faltered at the final hurdle on the 72nd hole.

Hopefully it won't be long before we are on the opposite end of one of those beatings on the DPWT. It hasn't been a happy hunting ground for us this year but last week was a sign of how quickly that can turn and hopefully we can be in the mix once again this weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood at 11/1

Matt Wallace showed us last week what can be done coming off the PGA tour even with poor form, so I'm inclined to take the chances of Tommy Fleetwood very seriously. There is a potential that the prize may be just isn't interesting enough for him, but for someone whose last win came back in 2019 I think he could seriously benefit from getting over the line, and this provides a solid opportunity. Fleetwood usually performs pretty well when he returns to Europe but it must be noted the majority of those are in much stronger fields than what is presented here in Germany.

The Englishman is only two weeks out from a major top five which wasn't entirely surprising given the way he hit the ball from tee to green at the Byron Nelson. This is his first look at Green Eagle which could prove to be a negative but I'm putting much more emphasis on his PGA tour form where clearly it gives you a significant advantage dropping down in class to the DPWT. I think the 11/1 is more than fair and if there are no ill effects from the recent travel he could prove very difficult to beat. I can't stress enough the gulf in class between him and the rest.

3pts WIN T.Fleetwood 11/1

Tommy Fleetwood - 3pts @ 11/1

Matt Wallace at 45/1 (Five Places)

With similar reasoning, I'm more than prepared to back Matt Wallace after last week's effort. He was certainly one to consider last week coming off the PGA tour however I admit I was concerned about his form and wasn't prepared to take the chance. I'm surprised he hasn't been made shorter this week off the back of that effort and I see no reason why he can't repeat last week's effort and go close once again.

A slightly tougher assignment awaits this week and I think that'll suit the Englishman who produced his second-best week on approach this year at the Dutch Open. His putting turned a corner too, which has held him back all year and if he can manage to keep it lukewarm, he should see a continuation of results like last week. He has been found wanting on the final day a few times in recent years on the DPWT and it certainly won't sit right with him. The 45/1 out there looks value and I'd have him slotted alongside the likes of Rasmus in the betting.

1pt each-way M.Wallace 45/1 (1/4 5)

Matt Wallace - 1pt e/w @ 45/1

Henrik Stenson at 50/1 (Six Places)

Another I'm prepared to take the chance on is Henrik Stenson. I thought he was somewhat of a sleeper in the PGA and from tee to green he played very well once again, as he did at the Byron Nelson, only to have his short game undo his chances of competing on both occasions. That has been the year's story so far, but should he find something with the putter, he may improve results quickly.

He was 6th on approach on day 1 at the PGA, and generally speaking, his long game has had no issues whatsoever for around three months now. He missed the cut here last year but arrived here after Colonial and his long game was in no such shape to contend.

This time around it is much different and he may produce something similar as to what Wallace did last week. The only time his putter behaved in the past few months was at the Texas Open in April where he finished 18th. This is a much weaker event and it only takes one week to hole some putts and he could find himself right back in the mix. Worth chancing at the 50/1. 

1pt each-way H.Stenson 50/1 (1/5 6)

Henrik Stenson - 1pt e/w @ 50/1