Canadian Open Winner

On we trot to Canada on the PGA Tour and this week we have a track last used for this event back in 2010. St George's Country Club was the scene of Carl Petterson's Canadian Open win 12 years ago so we haven't got a whole pile to go on regarding course stats or form. It's a relatively short par 70 measuring close to 7000 yards and featuring five par threes.

It's an undulating track but classical in design featuring some narrow fairways and the tree-lined nature of the course should make the pros think a bit more than usual. We're a week out from the US Open so naturally, there is a tendency for some of those towards the top of the rankings to tinker a little with their game in an attempt to get it right for the third major of the year. Once again we see a very strong field, with the odd one making the trip to England for the start of the Liv experience.

Rory McIlroy to win at 10/1

The strength of field in Ohio was more than double what it is this week and we can see that clearly in the market when we have the likes of Kirk, Munoz, Hadwin and Mitchell all around the 40/1 mark. Mitchell was triple figures last week and having showed signs lately sees a huge cull in his price. Someone who is playing infinitely better and who hasn't seen a cut in his price from last week is Rory McIlroy.

10/1 this week looks an awful lot more enticing than the same price last week given the drop in class in this field and the golf that he produced at Muirfield Village. McIlroy was once again extremely efficient from tee to green ranking 11th in the field in that department. He ranked 52nd of 70 who made the cut though on the greens and it was only this that saw him drop to 18th. A similar effort here would see him certainly place but I believe he can go one better and enter the US Open with huge confidence. The par 5s here will represent a huge opportunity for McIlroy with all being less than 600 yards.

Many in the field will make hay on them no doubt, but Rory with his strong long game right now should give himself a few opportunities at eagles across the week on these holes. He won't face the same calibre of competition should he manage to hit the top of the leaderboard at any stage this week and having won majors the week after winning before he would certainly benefit from the belief it would give him.

I do believe Rory is on the cusp of achieving something special, and that could arrive at the next two majors, although this holds a big chance of a victory and the same price as last week roughly looks a fair bit more tempting than what it did at the Memorial. 

3pts WIN R.McIlroy 10/1

Rory McIlory - 3pts @ 10/1

Tony Finau at 28/1 (Eight Places)

Tony Finau must be chanced having gained in all departments during his last two outings. 2nd in Mexico and 4th at the Charles Schwab make up two of his last four efforts and he can surely give this event his full attention before next week. 1st tee to green in Mexico, 2nd OTT at Potomac, 29th T2G Southern Hills and 10th T2G at Colonial are all the signs we need to know that Finau is edging back towards his best. Colonial was also his second-best effort on the greens this year. If he manages a good putting week we could easily see Finau re-enter the winner's enclosure.

A general 40/1 shot at the Charles Schwab where he finished 4th, we now see 28/1 at eight places available in a weaker event. I couldn't make Corey Conners who sits around the 20/1 mark shorter than Finau this week. Tony is playing some great stuff and just needs an ounce of luck here and there for the cards to land in the right spot. This field gets pretty weak after the 50/1 mark and Finau may just capitalise. 

1.5pts each-way T.Finau 28/1 (1/5 8)

Tony Finau - 1.5pts e/w @ 28/1

Cameron Champ at 80/1 (Five Places)

Cameron Champ comes here off the back of a missed cut in Ohio but must be considered with as big as triple figures out there. A MC at the PGA was down to a horrendous short game week, which of course was under the microscope at Southern Hills. Last week at the Memorial his approach play suffered badly and the theme continues that one aspect of his game seems to let him down almost every week, with the other departments competing very well.

The week before the Masters he suffered with his approach play only to finish 11th in that department at Augusta a few days later. He was 63rd on approach in Mexico before being 18th at the Byron Nelson next time out. His game is clearly a bit of a rollercoaster but this field is considerably weaker than last week and his price has stayed the same and drifted in a few places.

He can turn that approach play around on a dime and we know how talented he is on his day that when he features on the leaderboard during the weekend he is a dangerous opponent to even the best in the world. Always worth a glance at these prices.

1pt each-way C.Champ 80/1 (1/5 8)

Cameron Champ - 1pt e/w @ 80/1

Nick Taylor at 150/1 (Six Places)

I'll chance a small bet on Nick Taylor playing well in his home country. It hasn't worked out for him in this event with 27th in 2019 being his best result out of his 10 appearances here. That is a microcosm of his PGA Tour form in all honesty also despite having won twice. Outside of those wins he has only one top five on tour, that being at the Puerto Rico Open back in 2016. So you could be excused for wanting bigger than 150/1 on someone with that record.

Nevertheless, I'm hoping a return to Canada will be a boost as he hasn't played there since 2019 and has since become a champion at Pebble Beach. That, coupled with a few encouraging efforts with his irons is enough reason to get involved. 11st on approach at Colonial and 13th on approach at Potomac make up two of his last three efforts and if he can find a good week off the tee he may just figure.

0.75pt each-way N.Taylor 150/1 (1/5 6)

Nick Taylor - 0.75pts e/w @ 150/1