Niall Lyons shares his betting tips for this week's PGA Tour event, the TOUR Championship.
Justin Thomas Lowest 72 Hole score at 14/1 (Five Places)
Justin Thomas to win at 25/1 (Five Places)
One golfer I'm prepared to chance in the outright from a long way back is Justin Thomas. Thomas is capable of bursts though the field, similar to what happened at this years Masters when a horrid first round looked to have sealed his fate before rallying to get into the mix over the weekend and finish 8th.
Similarly but not quite with as many runners to overtake, he started the final day at this years PGA seven shots back of Mito Pereira. The Chilean no doubt helped proceedings there but a final round of 3 under was enough to get into the playoff with Zalatoris where he would manage to land his second major triumph. He was a 33/1 shot that Sunday seven shots back.
He has the same deficit this week and although the calibre of players above him is much stronger, he has four days to overcome it. It will prove very difficult of that there is no doubt but this year he has a made a habit of coming from behind and free wheeling through the field.
He also did it in Canada in June where shot 13 under over the weekend to finish 3rd. In his six attempts here he has never once been outside of the top 10 72 hole scores. For these reasons I think he is worth backing in both the main outrights this week.
1.5pts each-way J.Thomas lowest 72 hole score 14/1 (1/5 5)
1pt each-way J.Thomas to win Tour Championship 25/1 (1/5 5)
Tony Finau Lowest 72 Hole score at 16/1
I'll have two more bets on the lowest 72 hole score, the first being Tony Finau. Finau's run over the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic was phenomenal and he has shown incredible character to recover from an early season slump. Not only has he done that but he has elevated his game to among the top six or seven in the world. He continues to hit the ball a country mile but he has never been more accurate with the driver in his career than what he has been this last month.
With his approach play firing and a well behaving putter it is a potent combination and he has given himself a fighting chance of coming away with the top prize. We have seen so many times before that momentum is key in these play off events and although his two wins came just before the playoffs began he is no doubt carrying as much momentum as the leading challengers.
Finau's best two efforts here have been two 7th places but there is no doubt he has never entered this season finale in better form and I expect a better effort than previous.
1.5pts WIN T.Finau lowest 72 hole score 16/1
Viktor Hovland Lowest 72 Hole score at 33/1 (Four Places)
Finally I see little reason to desert Viktor Hovland at a top price of 33/1 to shoot the lowest 72 hole score. The Norwegian has been bringing various aspects of his game every week with one department letting him down. During week one in Scotland it was his short game that really suffered. At St Andrews it all came together and he excelled around the greens which was somewhat of a surprise.
Nothing much went wrong in Memphis on route to a top 20 then last week he was let down by his irons. His approach play rarely remains in the doldrums though and I think 33/1 represents fair value to outscore his 29 rivals. On his day Hovland is among the top in the world and his spikes can produce special performances.
He took down a 20 man field of similar quality last December when winning the Hero World Challenge and there is no doubt he can produce a performance like that again if bringing all departments of his game. Simply put, I think the 33/1 is far too big for Hovland in a 30 man field and it certainly looks worth the risk.
1.5pts each-way V.Hovland lowest 72 hole score 33/1 (1/4 4)
