Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
BMW PGA Championship - Winner
Autumn creeps ever nearer and with that comes the BMW at Wenworth where many LIV golfers in the winter of the career take their place in the field. They certainly have no energy crisis to worry about but they may endure a lack of warmth from their peers as they make an unwelcome appearance in the tours flagship event.
With their reputation in tact McIlroy, Rahm, Fitzpatrick and Lowry head an exciting field in Surrey with the Irishman looking to repeat his 2014 effort when he beat Lowry by a shot, arriving that week with his personal life dominating the news.
It's a different Rory nowadays and having almost single handedly lifted the PGA Tour to some short term stability, slots in around 6/1 jolly. 17 under or better has been required to win here the last four years and there's no doubt that Wentworth has lost a little of its bite since the schedule change from May to September back in 2019.
It hasn't taken from the quality of winner though with Willett, Hatton and Horschel being star names in the field who have won the biggest prize on the tour. The event has had its fair share of surprises but it has been a while now and it certainly looks that the best players in the game have the upper hand when they land here.
Matthew Fitzpatrick at 12/1
With the burden, McIlroy has carried these few months coupled with his performances I do believe he is vulnerable this week and I'd be slightly worried about a tired effort. Rahm hasn't looked quite the same golfer all year than what he did in 2021 and the stand-out performer of the year who sits pretty at 12/1 is Matt Fitzpatrick. The Englishman is excelling in all departments of the game and ability wise this surely represents his best chance to win the European 5th Major. Only once in his previous five efforts here has he finished outside the top 20.
Wentworth is made for Fitzpatrick and I'd fancy him to add this to CV during his career. His short game has been exemplary all season long and his game now off the tee rivals some of the best in the game. He looks to have evolved into the perfect 'all rounder' which bodes well for this visit to Wentworth.
I can't help but feel Lowry missed his chance earlier in the season when playing sparkling stuff without landing a victory. With Rory surely a little jaded from recent heroics and Rahm looking plenty short enough in the market, Fitzpatrick rates the best selection of them all and I'd be surprised not to see him figure heavily over the weekend.
2.5pts WIN M.Fitzpatrick 12/1
Tommy Fleetwood 30/1 (Eight Places)
The last we saw Tommy Fleetwood he was finishing 4th at St Andrews a week after posting the same result in the Scottish Open. That looked to be a corner turned for the Englishman having been winless since late 2019. Some tough periods have emerged since, and probably none more so than the death of his mother shortly after his appearance at St Andrews.
Tommy has since spent time at home with his family and had probably earmarked Wenworth for a return. He has played well here before figuring on numerous occasions throughout weekends but ultimately never finishing better than 6th.
This will obviously be an emotional return to Wentworth and with the clubs having gathered some dust over the past few weeks it's a risky play. Nevertheless, we saw Branden Grace win on the PGA Tour shortly after losing his father and Tommy will no doubt have fire in his belly to continue where he left off and achieve the same feat. There won't be a dry eye in the house should he win on Sunday and 72 hole golf has had a knack of pulling out some fantastic stories this year.
1.5pt each-way T.Fleetwood 30/1 (1/5 8)
Robert MacIntyre at 66/1 (Eight Places)
Impressive efforts with the driver lately have seen Robert MacIntyre enter the equation and having backed him last week at a top price of 28/1 I'm more than happy to go in again at more than double that. The Scot has been troubled off the tee all year but the last couple of weeks have seen him produce his best stuff this season with the big stick. He was 11th on approach last week in Denmark also which matched his second-best effort of the season which dates back to May.
The problem last week was the putter which behaved poorly for the second week running. His accuracy with the driver may come under pressure, but the last three events have seen him perform well in that statistic. Three efforts here have been average but mainly down to not hitting the ball well off the tee. He's improving in that department and after a great week with the irons last week there is only one club that needs to hit the target and that's the putter.
1pt each-way R.MacIntyre 66/1 (1/5 8)
Antoine Rozner at 110/1 (Eight Places)
Antoine Rozner made his debut in this last year making the cut finishing 67th. His second round of 65 was only beaten by two other golfers all week though and that is an encouraging sign that he may improve for his first outing at Wentworth. His ball striking has been absolutely phenomenal all summer and he comes here a lively threat despite being priced three figures by the bookmakers. His last outing in Switzerland was another ball-striking clinic to finish in 4th place which could easily have been better for a few more putts dropping across the week.
That has been the story of his last few months with the flat stick seriously holding him back. It was a similar story in 2021 when he produced a decent display from tee to green here only to be disappointing on the greens. It's a gamble but his long game is better than a lot in this field and if he can manage to heat up the putter he must have a serious chance of threatening the market leaders.
1pt each-way A.Rozner 110/1 (1/5 8)
Adrian Meronk at 90/1 (Eight Places)
Having gained his PGA Tour card at the weekend Thomas Detry may play with the shackles off and it'll be interesting to see how he goes. At 100/1 he makes fair appeal. Larrazabal is another interesting sort at 150/1 as I'm not entirely convinced he has played badly enough to warrant a drift to those kind of prices with the success he has had this year. I'm inclined to favour Adrian Meronk though around the 80/1 given the potential upside that he may have. The Polish star landed his maiden victory in Ireland in July following a series of near misses on the tour.
His approach play all year hasn't been anything worthy of note but the one week it did turn up he won. The rest of his game is remarkably consistent and one good week with the irons is all he needs to make a breakthrough. His putter has remained hot throughout the year and any week he turns up around this price he must be watched/risked.
38th last time out at the Omega Masters was largely down to an ordinary week off the tee. So many times this year he has posted good finishes despite average efforts with the irons. My gut here tells me Meronk is a special player who is about to achieve much greater things in the game and I just can't turn down backing him around this price no matter how strong the field.
1pt each-way A.Meronk 90/1 (1/5 8)
Fabrizio Zanotti at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Fabrizio Zanotti would need to take a step up to win an event of this calibre but his golf this summer suggests he is capable of mounting a charge. His better golf kicked off at the British Masters when finishing inside the top 10 and has continued most weeks since.
He was 7th in approach play that week at the Belfry and backed that up with 8th on approach at the BMW International and 12th on approach in Ireland. The top five finish in Ireland was a sign of what he can do whenever his putter behaves, which isn't very often.
Other solid efforts from tee to green this year have been blighted by poor form on the greens. He finished 16th in the mountains in Switzerland before posting 12th last week with another fine effort with his irons. He has played well here before with many respectable efforts including 7th back in 2016 and if he can manage to find a putting touch for one week could be a lively outsider.
0.75pt each-way F.Zanotti 100/1 (1/5 8)
Marcus Kinhult at 200/1 (Seven Places)
Finally, I'll have a small bet on the somewhat forgotten Swede Marcus Kinhult. He has had a couple of tough years following his British Masters victory but a win earlier in the year in the Nordic Golf League sparked somewhat of a resurgence which he followed up with 8th on the main tour in Kenya, then 3rd in the Qatar Masters. He recently finished 3rd in the Cazoo Classic with an excellent effort from tee to green that week.
Most recently he has been driving the ball impressively too which is a welcome change from earlier in the year. 23rd in Prague was followed by the same result in the mountains in Switzerland. 12th here in 2018 and 10th in 2020 show he has a real liking for the course and with recent form improving he could make the frame.
0.75pt each-way M.Kinhult 200/1 (1/5 7)
