Sanderson Farm - Winner

Jackson Country Club has hosted this event for a number of years now and can be a track where you can narrow down your search for a winner more easily than other weeks. A 7400+ yards par 72 awaits the field this week and demands a fair bit of length off the tee. Accuracy doesn't matter as much despite some plodder types doing well here down the years.

The rough isn't an issue but strokes gained approach certainly has been a stat to look towards for those wishing to contend this week. Poor putters have often thrived here also so look to those whose weakness shows up on the greens and if they meet the criteria in the other departments and the price is right then we may have a runner. 

Alex Smalley at 66/1 (Eight Places)

Alex Smalley made it all the way to the BMW in last season's campaign and given how often he excels with the irons must be on the radar this week.

After a month off he shook off some of the rust at the Fortinet and I'd expect to see an improvement with his iron play which dipped slightly in California. At the back of end of last year, it was boom or bust with Smalley who when made the cut usually posted a solid effort.

His last 11 events with a cut of the 2021-22 season produced five efforts inside the top 21, one 27th placed finish and the rest missed cuts. He finished 31st here last year on his debut effort at Jackson and as has often been the story didn't putt well enough to properly figure over the weekend. He already landed a runner up finish during his rookie season in Punta Cana and this season could see him go one better. His long game should really suit the test here in Jackson. 

1pt each-way A.Smalley 66/1 (1/5 8)

Justin Lower at 80/1 (Eight Places)

It's worth gambling that Justin Lower strips fitter for that final group outing in California and produces a similar effort to contend once again. This event is slightly weaker than the Fortinet and he goes off the same price than what he was despite leading heading into the final day there. He should improve for that experience and his opening round of 63 there is a sign of just how low he can go.

A handful of top 10s on his rookie season was an average effort but he has the all round game that should translate here to Jackson. I'm surprised he didn't shorten a little further following his effort in Napa and for that reason alone I'm prepared to support him at 80/1. 

1pt each-way J.Lower  80/1 (1/5 8)

Lee Hodges at 110/1 (Eight Places)

This is as close to a home game as it could be for Lee Hodges being an Alabama native and triple-figure quotes look worthy of investment. Hodges enjoyed a solid rookie season last term on the PGA Tour contending early on in the year at the American Express finishing 3rd then backing that up with an impressive top 10 effort at the Honda. He was solid yet unspectacular after that but a return close to home will be a positive this week.

He missed the cut at the Fortinet down to a poor effort around the greens but his long game remained in good shape. His approach play is his main strength and he showed that here at Jackson on debut last year ranking 22nd in that department, and 28th from tee to green. He didn't putt well on route to a top 50 finish but should the putter heat up this week he could go well for a long time.

1pt each-way L.Hodges  110/1 (1/5 8)

Stephan Jaeger at 80/1 (Eight Places)

Stephan Jaeger is progressing nicely lately and is always worth a second glance whenever a birdie fest week arrives. The German is becoming a better player year on year and it'd be no surprise to me should he break out and land the win. There is no doubt his strengths lie on or around the greens and maybe that's why we see him play better when the winning score looks to be 20 under or beyond.

He shot 20 under in July to finish 5th in the Rocket Mortgage and has a history of doing similar on the Korn Ferry Tour. He became the first to shoot a 58 there when winning the Ellie May Classic back in 2016 at a total of 30 under par. Another win arrived at the Boise Open in 2020 at 22 under par. This is where he is most dangerous and if he manages a stellar week with the irons he is going to be very dangerous.

1pt each-way S.Jaeger 80/1 (1/5 8)

Chesson Hadley at 160/1 (Eight Places)

Over a month off could have been the reason for an opening 78 from Adam Long at the Fortinet but he quickly put it right with a 68 in round two. It wasn't good enough to make the cut but Long is another who needs to be closely monitored on weeks such as these. Poor efforts with the driver of late though is enough to just put me off backing the triple figures. Chesson Hadley put together an impressive second half of the season last term and looks a decent bet around the 150/1 mark.

A season which looked all but gone lit up in June finishing 5th at the Travelers, 10th at the John Deere, 10th at the 3M Open and 8th at the Wyndham. These were all put together largely down a greatly improved iron game.

A missed cut on the number at the Fortinet can be excused. He was a shade unlucky here back in 2018 to bump into one in Ryan Armour who won by five shots as Hadley was two clear of third. Holds solid claims now he's hitting the ball much better with the irons and his putter has always been a strength to contend on these birdie fest weeks. 

0.75pt each-way C.Hadley 160/1 (1/5 8)

Harrison Endycott at 250/1 (Eight Places)

Harrison Endycott undoubtedly struggles with the putter but that didn't stop him from finishing 12th on his PGA tour debut at the Fortinet a few weeks ago. He finished 5th on approach that week and if that continues this week then he could score really well at Jackson. After a decorated amateur career he struggled a little before breaking out this year on the KFT securing a win at the Hunstville Championship on route to a top 20 on the tour gaining his card for this year.

He has certainly been a little inconsistent but played extremely well at the Fortinet and his long game is certainly capable of competing in events such as these. If he manages one good week on the greens then something special could happen for the Australian.

0.75pt each-way H.Endycott  250/1 (1/5 8)