Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the Open de Espana at Club de Campo Villa in Spain.
Open De España - Winner
Club De Campo is the venue once again for the Open De Espana and there is no doubt the local golfers have a huge advantage in their home country. At various tracks this century Garcia, Quiros and Jimenez have won this event before Rahm and Cabrera Bello winning here at this track the last couple of years with Rahm winning another in 2018 at Nacional De Golf. -19 and -22 has been needed to win this the past couple of years so we know low scoring is a necessity to contend.
Arnaus went mighty close here last year missing a putt on the 72nd for the win then losing out in the playoff to his compatriot. It's s tree-lined track where long driving is an advantage but down all the events held here down the years on and around the greens have been where it's won and lost. In particular, scrambling plays a fair part in the result.
Rahm rates a general 9/4 poke this week and it's a brave man to get involved with that price given he has had no tournament golf in over a month. His record in these parts is tremendous and he obliged a couple of years ago around the 3/1 mark. Last year around similar odds to these he disappointed finishing 17th. Spaniards excel in their homeland and he'll be a hard man to beat...but the layers would have needed to dangle around the 4/1 mark to get me interested.
Min Woo Lee at 30/1 (Eight Places)
Min Woo Lee is a talented sort who could give Rahm a run for his money even if the Spaniard does play to expectations. On almost every event played here work around the green has proven vital and this is where Min Woo excels. His approach play is his big weakness but his work off the tee is a big strength and I think his short game prowess could give him a lift to the title here.
We've seen him take down a hugely impressive field in the Scottish Open a few years ago, considerably stronger than this. 14th in the Masters this year, as well as 21st at the Open, is another sign of what he can produce in strong fields.
Sooner or later I think he'll become more prolific in weaker fields and this represents a huge chance to land another victory. In an event usually won or lost on or around the greens he must be high up the list. Bookmakers are lively to his chances as I'd hoped for a slightly bigger price, but he is one of the likelier sorts capable of beating whatever version of Rahm turns up.
Thriston Lawrence at 40/1 (Six Places)
A missed cut at the Dunhill Links is absolutely nothing to be concerned about and I'm happy to get involved with Thriston Lawrence at 40/1. The South African has enjoyed a tremendous season with wins in Joburg and the Swiss Mountains with a handful of other top five finishes to boot.
This puts him inside the top 10 of the DPWT rankings and he has a lot to play for over these final weeks heading towards Dubai. He is a solid enough all-rounder and if there was a weakness you'd say it was around the greens which is a slight worry around Club de Campo.
However, this season when he has scrambled well that has translated to super results and I'm hoping for a good week in that department. Lawrence was talked about having a lot of potential in the last five years and this season he has reached the heights expected of him.
His long game is perfect for a tree-lined track like this, just like it was in Crans. 40/1 is a sufficient price given he went off the same price in Crans. The field is top-heavy, but if the top two don't deliver then Lawrence has a superb chance of landing his third win this year.
Renato Paratore at 150/1 (Six Places)
I'm prepared to chance Renato Paratore this week at 150/1. The Italian is an inconsistent sort, to say the least, but capable of big performances out of the blue. That happened in Wales when he finished 3rd having missed 10 of his last 11 cuts. He then went on to finish 4th at the Galgorm the following week.
Nothing particularly leaps off the page with last week's performance either but on a venue that rewards good short games, Paratore must be considered. His long game will no doubt come under pressure but if he can manage an ordinary week in those departments and allows his short game to shine then he could contend at a decent-looking price.
Daan Huizing at 125/1 (Six Places)
It looks a week to chance a number of outsiders in the hope the two favourites fail to deliver and I'll chance another in Daan Huizing. The Dutchman has won enough on the Challenge Tour to suggest he is more than capable of winning a weaker field event on the main tour and this could be a week where he contends.
He, like Paratore doesn't shine with his long game, instead his short game doing the talking which is a good fit for this track. He made the final day last week in Scotland which is a positive. Three top 10 finishes since the beginning of June suggest Huizing is reaching a peak somewhat in his career and I wouldn't be surprised to see him figure on the weekend here.