Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the Andalucia Masters at Real Club Valderrama in Spain.
Andalucia Masters - Winner
Valderrama is the venue this week where good old-fashioned greens in regulation is always a stat to look to. Winners and contenders here have almost always managed their score by a neat tee-to-green game and avoiding all the trees that surround these holes. Ball striking is key and you'll find it difficult to make the weekend if your long game isn't firing.
The course divides opinion with a degree of luck involved with bounces here and there and of course the odd tree in what seems silly positions on the course. Nevertheless, it remains one of the most prestigious courses in Europe and players fall over themselves to land a victory at this place.
Alejandro Canizares at 150/1 (Eight Places)
Rahm's victory last week only underpinned the fact that the Spaniards have a great record in their home country and it'd be foolish not to gamble on one or two this week. I'm surprised at the price dished out on Alejandro Canizares and he must be backed at 150/1+. Canizares has played here eight times in his career and has yet to miss the cut. Finishes of 25-41-53-16-36-11-7-21 suggest this is one of those tracks that reward his game. Without looking I'd very much doubt he has a 100% cut record on any other track on tour that he has played at least eight times.
His ball-striking game has been missing all season but has certainly trended upwards these last few weeks. He didn't play too badly in France missing the cut on the number then a top 30 in the Dunhill Links was caveated by an improved driving display. He's still not pulling up any trees off the tee but his approach game is improving, ranking 8th in the field last week in Madrid. It's no coincidence even in the midst of some serious poor form a couple of months ago that he managed a top-ten finish in Crans, a course with many of the same characteristics as Valderrama. His record here is sneaky good and I'm shocked he has been chalked up at this price.
1.5pts each-way A.Canizares 150/1 (1/5 8)
Antoine Rozner at 30/1 (Eight Places)
The 13/2 about Matt Fitzpatrick is more than fair and worth a second glance. He won here last year and turns up this time around even more improved. The nature of the track can mean it can eat you up at any minute though and there is no doubt an ounce of luck involved with the trees and some poor bounces. For that reason I'm prepared to steer clear with the volatility of results around Valderrama clear to see. Antoine Rozner finished 3rd here a couple of years ago and is impossible to leave off the staking plan this week with a course that rewards excellent ball striking.
Rozner has been firing a sparkling long game for quite some time now having only been outside the top 16 once in his last six events. The Frenchman clearly has progressed over the last few months and arrives here one of the premium ball strikers in the field. You can't help but feel a more driver-heavy course would suit Rozner to win on in this form, but his accuracy as well as power with the big stick is a sight to behold these days. 4th in Crans in late August is an excellent form guide for this and should he arrive with the same long game once again after a week off, I find it difficult to see him not figure on the leaderboard on Sunday.
1.5pts each-way A.Rozner 30/1 (1/5 8)
Fabrizio Zanotti at 40/1 (Eight Places)
Another premier ball striker teeing it up around the same price as Rozner is Fabrizio Zanotti and he arrives at a course that perfectly suits his game. Unlike Rozner, Zanotti does struggle to compete on the longer golf courses but this track around the 7000-yard mark is right up his street. The Paraguayan is winless since the 2017 Maybank Championship but his game certainly looks to be peaking and it'd be no surprise to me should he land his third tour victory sometime over the next few months.
There aren't many straighter off the tee than Zanotti and that pays dividends here more than most other courses on tour. His approach play has been stellar all year currently ranking 30th on tour. He hits greens for fun and his 4th placed finish last year was a sign of just how suitable Valderrama is. His approach game has improved over the last couple of years; sooner or later, we'll see that translate to a victory.
1.5pts each-way F.Zanotti 40/1 (1/5 8)
Justin Walters at 275/1 (Eight Places)
Justin Walters hasn't disgraced himself this year on tour currently lying 62nd in the DPWT rankings and at a top price of 300/1 looks worthy of a small bet this week. Prior to his missed cut in Scotland he was performing extremely well with the irons. He ranked 23rd on approach in Italy, 35th at Wentworth and 6th at Himmerland. Earlier in the year he topped that stat at the Belfry when finishing 3rd at the British Masters. He ranks 14th on tour in Greens in Regulation and 15th on approach for the year. Capable of a big effort on a venue such as this and the price is worth a nibble.
0.75pt each-way J.Walters 275/1 (1/5 8)
