Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the ZOZO Championship at Narashino Country Club in Japan.
ZOZO Championship - Winner
Two of the last three years we have visited Narashino Country Club in Japan for the Zozo Championship and it's another welcome return for the 2022 renewal. Matsuyama has dominated this venue to date first of all finishing second to Tiger in 2019 before winning in spectacular fashion last year clearing the field by five shots. Data hasn't been forthcoming from the event but it is clear what type of game is needed to succeed. Narashino is a claustrophobic tree-lined track which would remind you of Chapultepec in Mexico.
Zoysia grass on the fairways similar to what we see at East Lake and Southwind is another aspect to look at. Overall you'll need a firing long game here with long and short irons needing to be precise to score well. It's a typical tree-lined layout that rewards a solid ball-striking game. With winners such as Matsuyama and Tiger as well as a handful of other contenders, a small nod is given to Augusta form also. Schauffele lands the jolly tag this week and it'll be interesting to see if he carries the good vibes from Tokyo to land victory here once again.
Sahith Theegala at 50/1 (Six Places)
One firm, in particular, has gone stand out on Sahith Theegala and I can't turn down the 50/1 on offer. Theegala has kicked off this season with a top 10 at the Fortinet then a missed cut at the Sanderson. The missed cut is of little worry as it was mainly down to a bad week on the greens which can be easily overturned. He blew a golden chance earlier in the year at the Travelers when making a pig's ear of the 18th when leading. Nevertheless, it was a hugely impressive rookie season which took him all the way to East Lake at his first attempt.
I don't expect him to relent and given he makes gains in all departments of his game I think Narashino will be a decent fit. He may benefit from being away from the pressure cooker of the United States also and land a maiden victory without the pressure of the home crowd. The experience at TPC River Highlands will prove to be a valuable lesson when next in contention and a venue like Narashino should suit Theegala with little weakness in any part of his game.
1pt each-way S.Theegala 50/1 (1/5 6)
Sepp Straka at 50/1 (Six Places)
Sepp Straka has shown no signs of letting up and looks a likely contender here on a track that should suit. Mackenzie Hughes took him down in a playoff last time out in Jackson which added to his runner-up finish at the aforementioned Southwind only three starts previous. This run of form came after a barren spell which saw him miss six cuts on the trot from June to August. Ever since the outing in Memphis though things have looked good in all departments, most notably a huge upturn in ball striking.
A 7th-placed finish at East Lake is another positive with the Zoysia link and if he shows up with a similar game to those shown in the past four events then surely he has a huge chance of figuring here over the weekend. He has shown on numerous occasions now he can mix it with stronger fields and his ability under pressure is unquestionable.
1pt each-way S.Straka 50/1 (1/5 6)
Aaron Rai at 80/1 (Eight Places)
Aaron Rai excels with an ability to keep the ball in play and with length not much of an issue this week he could capitalise on what looks like a good venue for him. 20th last week was a fine effort which included a sparkling 3rd round of 62 to see him lifted to the final few groups on Sunday. A lacklustre final round was predictable after Saturday's heroics but his long game was in good nick for the most of the week.
He already has a win in this part of the world in Hong Kong, which was another tree-lined track very suitable to his strengths. Rai is certainly talented enough to make the grade on this tour and get over the line and this type of tracksuits better than most. 100/1 top price looks decent to say the least but anything around the 80/1 looks a fair mark.
0.75pt each-way A.Rai 80/1 (1/5 8)
Luke List at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Luke List looks like another worth chancing at juicy odds. He doesn't fit the profile of a tree-lined course merchant but he does make all of his gains from tee to green and that looks a perfect recipe for Narashino. On debut here last year he finished 7th and at triple-figure prices looks worthy of the risk. List, finally got off the mark earlier in the year at the Farmers beating a field much stronger than this. That was of course his best-putting week of the year and he'll need to produce something similar to win this. Nevertheless, it is possible and a top ten last year suggests he is capable of a similar performance should he manage to hole more than his usual fair share.
He was quietly fancied by many to go well at Augusta this year but disappointed but theoretically, it would be a venue he could play very well upon. Triple figures about List is always worth a glance as it's usually only one part of his game we gambling upon. Ball striking was decent last time out at the Sanderson with the usual story of a misbehaving putter. Worth the risk at triple figures that he turns that around this week.
Matt Wallace at 100/1 (Eight Places)
Another who played well here last year was Matt Wallace and again I'm surprised to see triple figures quoted. We backed him when finishing runner-up to Thirston Lawrence in Crans as I believe his strengths lie around the more strategic golf courses. He narrowly missed out there but it backed up my belief that venues such as these represent good opportunities for the Englishman and Narashino is another.
Notable from his first two starts on the new PGA tour season has been the upturn in his game off the tee. He was managing to bridge the gaps of a poor long game recently with an exceptional short game. His irons will need to improve if he is to win here but the rest of his game is more than up to the standard of competing at the business end.
