Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the CJ Cup in South Carolina.
CJ Cup - Winner
The CJ Cup continues to travel far and wide and this years renewal heads to South Carolina at the Congaree Golf Club. The Tom Fazio design is a 7300+ yard par 71 which has held one PGA Tour event before in 2021 when it hosted the Palmetto Championship won by Garrick Higgo.
The South African won there with a total of 11 under par so the course certainly wasn't taken apart, although this time we see a much stronger field. Four of those who finished tied 2nd that week all ranked in the top five for SG tee to green so that certainly looks to be a stat worth delving into.
There was a mixture of long and short hitters in the mix that week so it is difficult to rule anyone out but I'd air on the side of the longer hitters having the advantage here.
McIlroy sits at a fair price this week at 8/1 and he will have his supporters at that mark no doubt. The surrounding big names all have their chances also and the pricing looks about correct.
It's difficult to choose between them and this feels like a week to play a few golfers at slightly bigger prices given a handful of the favourites usually fail to deliver during this fall series.
Collin Morikawa at 33/1 (Six Places)
Collin Morikawa's first outing of the season resulted in a 45th placed finish in Japan but a certain degree of rust could be partly to blame for that effort. It must be said though that he didn't quite hit the heights of previous years this last 10 months. He did say himself he didn't know what shot shape he was hitting standing over the ball so a certain degree of mental issues could be attributed to some lacklustre efforts.
His ball striking remained consistent throughout the year however but he didn't quite hit enough of those spikes with an inconsistent putter to win events. He still managed top fives at the Masters and US Open which shows his class. He will be looking to get back to winning ways and the 33/1 on offer is more than tempting to risk. The upside of backing Morikawa at these prices is huge should he manage a decent putting week he could threaten any field.
1.5pts each-way C.Morikawa 33/1 (1/5 6)
Sahith Theegala at 66/1 (Eight Places)
We backed Sahith Theegala last week on route to a tied 5th finish and I see little reason to desert him at a much improved price this week. The field is obviously a fair bit stronger but his performance last week was more than enough for me to hold his own in the market and maybe drift slightly, but not towards the 66/1 and top price of 80/1 we see today.
Theegala fired a tremendous 3rd round of 63 to get on the fringes of contention for Sunday but two early bogeys cost him that chance on the final day. Nevertheless that's two top six finishes in three starts in this new season and confidence is clearly high. A strong all rounder bodes well for Congaree and just has to be backed once again at the price.
1pt each-way S.Theegala 66/1 (1/5 8)
Cam Davis at 70/1 (Eight Places)
Cam Davis shot 70-67-69-69 last week to finish just inside the top 30 and although we don't have the data to divulge from Japan nothing about that effort rings alarm bells. We have seen Mackenzie Hughes win the Sanderson having been in the Presidents Cup conversation, then Tom Kim won the Shriners the following week. The Presidents Cup is proving to be somewhat of a motivator for many and the enhanced reputation the tournament is getting in the game is helping.
Cam Davis claimed two points at Quail Hollow and was generally considered one of the best performers on the week. He thrives on the pressure and I believe the next time he gets into contention he could excel.
The Aussie teed it up last week around the 35-40/1 mark and this week we see double that price. That doesn't quite fit with last weeks effort for me and although the field is stronger he will have no fear having taken down Scheffler, Burns and Horschel at the Presidents Cup.
1pt each-way C.Davis 70/1 (1/5 8)
Corey Conners at 45/1 (Eight Places)
Corey Conners made a slow start last week in Japan with an opening 73 but bounced back in fine fashion with three 67s to manage a top 25 finish in the end. The Canadian, along with his fellow countryman Pendrith, endured a horrid time at the Presidents Cup both contributing zero points to the final haul. He will look to put that behind him quickly and he has the class to do so.
Congaree is a course that rewards a good tee to green game and Conners fits that bill. Unfortunately for him he often doesn't putt well enough and the 'spikes' I was referring to earlier with Morikawa are less frequent also. He should take to this course though and I think the price of around 50/1 is fair given what he has achieved in high class fields before.
1pt each-way C.Conners 45/1 (1/5 8)
Tommy Fleetwood at 70/1 (Six Places)
Straka interests at the prices with a shade of an overreaction in the market to last weeks effort. Along similar lines though I'm struggling to keep Fleetwood off the staking plan. The Englishman didn't pull up any trees on the DPWT recently but only four or five starts ago he finished 4th in the Open having posted the same finish in the Scottish.
Fleetwood is capable of big efforts when his game is on and with scores kept relatively modest in the Palmetto here last year this course may suit. His ball striking has always been a strength and although it may have tailed off lately it never stays in the red for long and should he arrive with a good long game in tact then the 70/1 out there could look very big come the weekend.
The bet comes with risks attached but again I think the upside to backing him at this price even in this field is positive despite some average form of late.
0.75pt each-way T.Fleetwood 70/1 (1/5 6)
