Alex Smalley headlines the betting tips from Niall Lyons for the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal.
Bermuda Championship Winner
The Port Royal GC is an interesting venue on the tour and it's a shame that it boasts a field this weak as we near the end of the golfing calendar. One of the shortest courses on tour it yields plenty of birdies but it is not without its challenges.
Off the tee, it's one of the tougher assignments on the schedule with only just over 50% average fairways hit. Long par 3s play their part also but without a doubt, the biggest talking point here is the wind that is set to blow once again this week.
It caused many issues last year and thankfully we were on the right side with Herbert who is now well thought of when playing in windier conditions. A similar can be said for a handful again here this week and the weak field lends itself to a bet with the wind set to blow once again, particularly on Sunday.
Seamus Power would be a serious threat here if he can recapture some of last season's form but the tailing off of his iron play is a worry and probably enough to put me off the 22/1 mark. This represents a big opportunity for Aaron Rai also to make his mark on the PGA tour but it is never that easy and 25/1 isn't enough to tempt me.
A similar thing can be said of Detry also who has kicked off his maiden campaign with two top 12 finishes at the Fortinet and the Sanderson. 18/1 is plenty short enough though and it'll take a brave man to weigh in heavily on any of these market leaders this week.
Alex Smalley at 33/1 (Eight Places)
At 33/1 my headline selection goes the way of Alex Smalley. The New York native enjoyed an impressive maiden season in 2022 narrowly missing out on a win in Punta Cana finishing runner-up to Chad Ramey there. Eight other top-25 finishes was a very solid start to his PGA tour career and he'll be looking to go one better this term. This field represents a huge chance for Smalley to land his first victory and I'm simply not having that the likes of Detry should be 18/1 and Smalley 33s.
There is no doubt his biggest strength (approach play) has been missing in the opening weeks of the 2023 season but so high is his ceiling that I believe he should be among the favourites here this week. He'll no doubt need to improve with the irons but I don't expect him to stay in these negative numbers for long and he looks one of the more talented sorts in the field.
Sam Ryder at 70/1 (Eight Places)
Sam Ryder has made six of his last seven cuts on tour and looks a danger in this field. Not one of the longest hitters on tour he is another who will welcome the shorter track that will demand a stellar approach play in the conditions. His approach play has been outstanding since the beginning of this season in September and he's also been riding a hot putter. He really should have seen better results in those first few events but I'm convinced this shorter track will play to his strengths.
He finished in the top 10 at the Honda last year which is always tough conditions but more importantly finished 2nd to Joel Dahmen in the Corales where the wind wreaked havoc over the weekend there. It won't be anywhere near as bad as that in Bermuda this week but his experience in those conditions in contention will be an advantage. Certainly looks to be playing better than his results suggests.
Brian Stuard at 125/1 (Eight Places)
Brian Stuard suffers week to week on the tour due to being one of the shortest hitters but Port Royal represents a chance for him to capitalise on one of the shorter tracks on tour. Birdies may rain down here despite some wind forecast and Stuard's approach play recently suggests he may just put his best foot forward in Bermuda. In his two outings so far this term he was 24th on approach at the Fortinet and 21st in the same statistic at the Sanderson.
He has putted well on those two appearances also. His OTT stats make for grim reading but that is largely down to a lack of distance and those numbers look set to improve at this venue. Last season he went well at Punta Cana by the sea finishing 7th and also 9th in the Honda in challenging conditions there also. Chances are few and far between for someone who doesn't hit the ball far, but when the chance arrives he can post a good finish. Worth chancing here at triple figures.
Brandon Wu at 50/1 (Eight Places)
Brandon Wu was seven under through three rounds at the Zozo before shooting two over the final round and falling to 29th spot. We don't have the stats from there but we can assume his iron play had improved slightly from previous weeks.
Off the tee he is making gains despite not being the longest and a challenging, windy week in Bermuda should be right up his street. Last season there were a number of impressive performances in fields much stronger than this most notably a 6th placed finish in the Scottish Open at the Renaissance.
Rahm narrowly edged Ghim in a tight battle in Mexico with the American finishing one shot behind the Spaniard. 8th at the Wyndham and 3rd in Puerto Rico are all signs that Brandon has what it takes to take down a field of this quality. There are plenty of question marks surrounding those above him and his best efforts last season suggest he should be shorter in the market than what he currently is.
Michael Gligic at 70/1 (Eight Places)
Australians could go well once again at this venue and Harrison Endycott may be the most interesting of them. He has been performing well off the tee and should his iron game return to the standard he produced at the Fortinet in September he could be a factor here. His last two efforts with the irons show that may be a too much of a mountain to climb and for that reason, I'll leave him off the staking plan.
Aaron Baddeley is another interesting Aussie who could well take to the track also. I'll opt for Canadian Michael Gligic who is another worth siding with after his latest performance at the Shriners a few weeks ago. He missed the cut there, but that was solely down to a horror show on the greens and if he can put that behind him he should have the game to play well here.
He finished off last season well with two top fives back to back in the final Korn Ferry events and despite finishes of CUT-45-CUT to kick off the new season he is worth considering here. He was 11th here two years ago, and 4th in the Corales event I mentioned earlier with strong wind dominating the week there.
There is no doubt he raised his game in September and ever since it has only been his short game that has let him down. That could change at any moment and the 70/1 on offer is worth nabbing.
