Niall Lyons shares his betting tips and preview for the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
Eddie Pepperell at 33/1 (Five places)
Eddie Pepperell is on a run of 11 made cuts on the trot and rates as my best bet of the week on a course that should suit. His only appearance here five years ago resulted in a tie for 34th but his long game was in solid nick that week only to be let down by a misbehaving putter. His putter is a much more consistent club in the bag now and he is comfortably going to have his best season to date with that club.
His approach play since late July has been elite to say the least, with not many in the world performing better with the irons. Off the tee he has lost distance these past few years and throughout the course of a season that can weigh heavily.
The Gary Player course here should grant him some grace and his impressive accuracy with the 3 wood should see him avoid the worst of the kikuyu rough. Hitting the greens remains the tough part of this assignment and should Eddie turn up with a similar game to what he has done in recent months then he holds a significant advantage on the field.
He ranks 19th on tour this season in GIR hit and despite poor numbers in SG ATG he ranks 14th in Scrambling. That's a solid potion for Sun City and Pepperell has the experience in the bag to take a title like this.
2pts each-way E.Pepperell 33/1 (1/4 5)
Victor Perez at 40/1 (Eight places)
Jordan Smith is another like Detry who is realising potential and he could go on to achieve some great things in the game. His ball striking is tremendous and together with a new found putting touch has begun to look like the complete package. The 12-14/1 mark looks about correct and if anything a little skinny, but it will be interesting to see what price he drifts to in a stronger field next week.
Instead I'll take the chance on Victor Perez where the market looks to have overreacted a little to his latest missed cut. Portugal is a birdie fest and should you get behind early doors it gives you a mountain to climb. The Frenchman got back into the winners enclosure in the Dutch Open in May after a difficult couple of years. He has since landed two top three finishes at the European Open and Italian Open.
He ranks 10th on tour this season on SG Approach and 15th in GIR. His putter can be a little inconsistent but he ranked 57th in the field in putting when winning the Dutch Open so his long game can certainly do the talking.
It will need to this week but he has the class to take an event of this stature and a runner up at Wentworth back in 2020 is a good recent trend with winners there Noren and Willett winning both the BMW and the Nedbank. Fleetwood and Grace winning here recently show that good wind players are at an advantage also with the altitude playing havoc with yardages and the wind which plays a fair part on approach play.
2pts each-way V.Perez 40/1 (1/5 8)
Adrian Otaegui at 33/1 (Eight places)
Adrian Otaegui produced a career effort to win at Valderrama last month and his subsequent outing in Mallorca was another impressive effort where he was mainly stopped in his tracks with his putter. The Spaniard has been on a roll since September finishing 13th at Wentworth, 25th in Italy and 13th in France before landing his victory in Spain. All those efforts coming on prestigious courses also so that bodes well for a trip to Sun City.
He has always been suited by the tougher driving tests and his accuracy from the tee should prove advantageous here with the thick kikuyu awaiting errant drives. A solid putter who is performing well in the ball striking department is a perfect fit for the Gary Player course here and he is riding good momentum heading into the final two events.
1.5pts each-way A.Otaegui 33/1 (1/5 8)
Thorbjorn Olesen at 50/1 (Eight places)
Thorbjorn Olesen is an interesting runner having finished 12th back on his last appearance here in 2017. The Dane can be a frustrating one to follow and his recent tee to green effort in France (first in the field) was worthy of possibly winning the event but for being one of the worst putters in the field.
That is uncharacteristic from Olesen who is usually solid with the flat stick but had he performed that week on the greens in France then we'd possibly be looking at a double winner this season and the 50-60/1 available this week certainly wouldn't be on offer.
Another super ball striking performance followed at Valderrama where he finished 21st again the caveat being a poor putter. A missed cut in Portugal doesn't overly concern me as he has only once broke the top 40 there in his last six efforts. Should he regain those ball striking efforts from Spain and France then he could quite easily figure here and I wouldn't expect the poor putting performances to continue for much longer.
1.25pts each-way T.Olesen 50/1 (1/5 8)
Richard Sterne at 200/1 (Six places)
One from the bottom of the betting worth a tickle is South African Richard Sterne. He has won four European Tour events in South Africa and at 200/1+ looks an ounce of value to play well in his home country once again. In six outings here he has only finished outside the top 25 once.
He has made three of his last four cuts on the tour, most recently finishing 27th in Portugal where he shot a final round of 66. He ranked 8th from tee to green that week and if he can repeat that performance at a track he knows extremely well then he could surprise a few being rank outsider in the field.
0.75pt each-way R.Sterne 200/1 (1/5 6)
